Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lakeview, OR
May 31, 2024 7:40 PM PDT (02:40 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:31 AM Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 1:11 AM Moonset 12:59 PM |
FXUS66 KMFR 312129 AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 229 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024
SHORT TERM
Other than some high clouds, it's wall to wall sunshine out there this afternoon beneath high pressure. A few pop up cumulus could develop in SE sections (Modoc) into this evening, but that's about it. Inland areas will end up generally about 10 degrees above normal for highs this afternoon. Offshore flow led to a nice, warm afternoon in Brookings with the temperature there peaking at 79 degrees at 1 pm, but the rest of the coast is being cooled by marine air with temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
Unless something drastically changes from now until midnight (it won't), we'll close out the month of May here in Medford on a streak of 25 consecutive days without precipitation. Despite that long dry period, we'll still end up only a little below normal for the month due to the wetness during the first week.
For most areas, this evening will be a near perfect evening for outdoor activities with the waning of the daytime warmth and any breezes easing to just gentle winds. Overnight lows will be near to several degrees above normal. This translates to upper 40s/low 50s west of the Cascades and generally in the 40s over the east side. Marine layer low clouds/fog probably form or push into Coos and far western Douglas counties.
On Saturday, an upper trough will swing through. While there will be an uptick in mid/high cloudiness inland, moisture is limited, so we're not anticipating any precipitation. Overall, expect 5-10 degrees of cooling compared to today. The trough will serve to deepen the marine layer, so expect more in the way of low cloudiness along the coast (10% or less chance of drizzle along the immediate coast). More marine influence also means it won't be as warm in Brookings (low to mid 60s) as it is today. With an increasing west-east pressure gradient, gusty west-northwest breezes (25-30 mph) will pick up in the afternoon just about everywhere, but especially for the inland valleys and over the east side. Another mostly dry, comfortable night is expected Saturday night.
Attention shifts to a stronger, moist Pacific front that will approach the PacNW on Sunday, then move through our area Sunday night into Monday. By June standards, this front has significant moisture transport values of 500-750 kg/ms (IVT), which will send rain onto the coast Sunday. Precipitation will gradually move south and eastward across the CWA then, but rain will take pretty much all day to get to Medford/Ashland/Grants Pass. Wetting rainfall is then likely for most areas from the Cascades westward Sunday night into early Monday. Amounts will peter out though as the front loses its punch moving east of the Cascades. Model Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) of QPF from the ECMWF shows values approaching 1 in the Cascades to our north, but also healthy values along our coast and into the Cascades. This is a strong indication that the front will be considerable for its rain production for this time of year, but the rain in our area will largely be beneficial and put the brakes on the start to fire season (at least over the west side). Storm total rain amounts of 1-2 inches will be common along the coast, perhaps even up to 3 inches in some of the coast ranges. 0.50-1.00 inch of rain is expected in the rest of Douglas County and into portions of the Illinois Valley. Here in the Rogue Valley, most likely amounts will range from 0.20-0.40 of an inch. Over the east side and from the Shasta Valley eastward, amounts will be mostly 0.10 of an inch or less with little or nothing in southern Modoc County. -Spilde
LONG TERM
Monday afternoon (6/03) through Thursday night(6/06)...
Post frontal showers will persist through Monday afternoon, but will quickly diminish through the evening as strong ridging builds into the region behind the departing system. The model suites in previous runs have depicted the ridge well in control of the area, with steadily warming temperatures and no chances for rain throughout the extended term.
The recent runs, however, have started to show a more complicated pattern, with an area of swift zonal flow, mainly lying just to our north, with ridging to the south and troughing to the north. This would keep our area mostly dry and hot, just as previously thought, although maybe not quite as warm. Also, with the zonal flow in the vicinity, a stray impulse could brush by southern Oregon, producing some light rain chances along the coast and the upper Umpqua Basin through Tuesday night. That being said, the most likely scenario remains dry.
Wednesday and Thursday, the ridge builds north in response to a deepening trough upstream over the eastern Pacific. Depending on how far east that trough is, the ridge axis will remain overhead keeping the area dry and very warm for this time of year (about 10 to 15 degrees above normal), or just to our east, allowing for some southwesterly flow aloft. This southwesterly flow solution is also very warm, but typically produces a chance for convection, particularly over northern California and along and east of the Cascades in Oregon, so there is a low chance, around 15%, for afternoon thunderstorms somewhere in the area mid to late next week.
Details on the timing and exact locations will need to wait until the models better resolve the situation. -BPN
AVIATION
31/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions will continue across northern California and southern Oregon through much of the TAF period under stable atmospheric conditions. Gusty northerly winds along the Oregon coast will increase this afternoon before calming this evening. Gusty winds in the valleys west of the Cascades long the I-5 corridor are also expected. We are not expecting conditions east of the Cascades to be as gusty as they were yesterday.
-Miles
MARINE
Updated 140 PM Friday, May 31, 2024...A thermal trough will continue to bring chances of northerly gale winds to waters south of Cape Blanco today, with the highest chances within 30 nm of the coast. A continuing Gale Warning for southern waters and a Small Craft Advisory for northern waters will remain in place through 11 PM tonight. Some localized areas of steep seas may remain after 11 PM between Brookings and Crescent City, but not with enough consistency to require any additional hazard products.
A weak upper trough moving over the area will help to break the thermal trough up early Saturday morning, starting a period of calm seas. Winds will turn westerly but remain light, and precipitation chances from this trough are in the single digits for waters north of Cape Blanco.
A more impactful front will arrive on Sunday morning, bringing southerly winds and fresh westerly swell. Wide areas of steep seas are expected to build by Sunday afternoon, but the timing and exact areas will benefit from additional information. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible Sunday evening into Monday morning, especially over all waters within 10 nm from shore as well as outer waters north of Cape Blanco.
Active seas continue behind the front, with current long term guidance expecting long period westerly swell to enter area waters on Wednesday morning. Present outcomes suggest seas of 9 to 12 feet at 10 to 13 seconds will be built through Wednesday and Thursday.
Additionally, a thermal trough may return next Thursday. Confidence in the trough development is minimal given current uncertainty in atmospheric conditions so far out, but the chance is worth mentioning to communicate the expectation of further chaotic seas through the end of next week. -TAD/Miles
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-370- 376.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 229 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024
SHORT TERM
Other than some high clouds, it's wall to wall sunshine out there this afternoon beneath high pressure. A few pop up cumulus could develop in SE sections (Modoc) into this evening, but that's about it. Inland areas will end up generally about 10 degrees above normal for highs this afternoon. Offshore flow led to a nice, warm afternoon in Brookings with the temperature there peaking at 79 degrees at 1 pm, but the rest of the coast is being cooled by marine air with temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
Unless something drastically changes from now until midnight (it won't), we'll close out the month of May here in Medford on a streak of 25 consecutive days without precipitation. Despite that long dry period, we'll still end up only a little below normal for the month due to the wetness during the first week.
For most areas, this evening will be a near perfect evening for outdoor activities with the waning of the daytime warmth and any breezes easing to just gentle winds. Overnight lows will be near to several degrees above normal. This translates to upper 40s/low 50s west of the Cascades and generally in the 40s over the east side. Marine layer low clouds/fog probably form or push into Coos and far western Douglas counties.
On Saturday, an upper trough will swing through. While there will be an uptick in mid/high cloudiness inland, moisture is limited, so we're not anticipating any precipitation. Overall, expect 5-10 degrees of cooling compared to today. The trough will serve to deepen the marine layer, so expect more in the way of low cloudiness along the coast (10% or less chance of drizzle along the immediate coast). More marine influence also means it won't be as warm in Brookings (low to mid 60s) as it is today. With an increasing west-east pressure gradient, gusty west-northwest breezes (25-30 mph) will pick up in the afternoon just about everywhere, but especially for the inland valleys and over the east side. Another mostly dry, comfortable night is expected Saturday night.
Attention shifts to a stronger, moist Pacific front that will approach the PacNW on Sunday, then move through our area Sunday night into Monday. By June standards, this front has significant moisture transport values of 500-750 kg/ms (IVT), which will send rain onto the coast Sunday. Precipitation will gradually move south and eastward across the CWA then, but rain will take pretty much all day to get to Medford/Ashland/Grants Pass. Wetting rainfall is then likely for most areas from the Cascades westward Sunday night into early Monday. Amounts will peter out though as the front loses its punch moving east of the Cascades. Model Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) of QPF from the ECMWF shows values approaching 1 in the Cascades to our north, but also healthy values along our coast and into the Cascades. This is a strong indication that the front will be considerable for its rain production for this time of year, but the rain in our area will largely be beneficial and put the brakes on the start to fire season (at least over the west side). Storm total rain amounts of 1-2 inches will be common along the coast, perhaps even up to 3 inches in some of the coast ranges. 0.50-1.00 inch of rain is expected in the rest of Douglas County and into portions of the Illinois Valley. Here in the Rogue Valley, most likely amounts will range from 0.20-0.40 of an inch. Over the east side and from the Shasta Valley eastward, amounts will be mostly 0.10 of an inch or less with little or nothing in southern Modoc County. -Spilde
LONG TERM
Monday afternoon (6/03) through Thursday night(6/06)...
Post frontal showers will persist through Monday afternoon, but will quickly diminish through the evening as strong ridging builds into the region behind the departing system. The model suites in previous runs have depicted the ridge well in control of the area, with steadily warming temperatures and no chances for rain throughout the extended term.
The recent runs, however, have started to show a more complicated pattern, with an area of swift zonal flow, mainly lying just to our north, with ridging to the south and troughing to the north. This would keep our area mostly dry and hot, just as previously thought, although maybe not quite as warm. Also, with the zonal flow in the vicinity, a stray impulse could brush by southern Oregon, producing some light rain chances along the coast and the upper Umpqua Basin through Tuesday night. That being said, the most likely scenario remains dry.
Wednesday and Thursday, the ridge builds north in response to a deepening trough upstream over the eastern Pacific. Depending on how far east that trough is, the ridge axis will remain overhead keeping the area dry and very warm for this time of year (about 10 to 15 degrees above normal), or just to our east, allowing for some southwesterly flow aloft. This southwesterly flow solution is also very warm, but typically produces a chance for convection, particularly over northern California and along and east of the Cascades in Oregon, so there is a low chance, around 15%, for afternoon thunderstorms somewhere in the area mid to late next week.
Details on the timing and exact locations will need to wait until the models better resolve the situation. -BPN
AVIATION
31/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions will continue across northern California and southern Oregon through much of the TAF period under stable atmospheric conditions. Gusty northerly winds along the Oregon coast will increase this afternoon before calming this evening. Gusty winds in the valleys west of the Cascades long the I-5 corridor are also expected. We are not expecting conditions east of the Cascades to be as gusty as they were yesterday.
-Miles
MARINE
Updated 140 PM Friday, May 31, 2024...A thermal trough will continue to bring chances of northerly gale winds to waters south of Cape Blanco today, with the highest chances within 30 nm of the coast. A continuing Gale Warning for southern waters and a Small Craft Advisory for northern waters will remain in place through 11 PM tonight. Some localized areas of steep seas may remain after 11 PM between Brookings and Crescent City, but not with enough consistency to require any additional hazard products.
A weak upper trough moving over the area will help to break the thermal trough up early Saturday morning, starting a period of calm seas. Winds will turn westerly but remain light, and precipitation chances from this trough are in the single digits for waters north of Cape Blanco.
A more impactful front will arrive on Sunday morning, bringing southerly winds and fresh westerly swell. Wide areas of steep seas are expected to build by Sunday afternoon, but the timing and exact areas will benefit from additional information. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible Sunday evening into Monday morning, especially over all waters within 10 nm from shore as well as outer waters north of Cape Blanco.
Active seas continue behind the front, with current long term guidance expecting long period westerly swell to enter area waters on Wednesday morning. Present outcomes suggest seas of 9 to 12 feet at 10 to 13 seconds will be built through Wednesday and Thursday.
Additionally, a thermal trough may return next Thursday. Confidence in the trough development is minimal given current uncertainty in atmospheric conditions so far out, but the chance is worth mentioning to communicate the expectation of further chaotic seas through the end of next week. -TAD/Miles
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-370- 376.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLKV LAKE COUNTY,OR | 3 sm | 47 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 30°F | 19% | 29.99 |
Medford, OR,
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