Sunrise 5:37 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 1:59 AM   Moonset 3:22 PM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1037 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Rest of tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming W late. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Mon - W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Mon night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely . Fri - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 1037 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
shower and Thunderstorm chances will persist into the middle part of the workweek as a series of disturbances traverse the area. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters late tonight into Monday.

FXUS61 KCTP 030301 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1101 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
*Scattered showers this evening.
*Hit and miss showers and thunderstorms expected Monday and Tuesday as temperatures and humidity ramp up.
*More widespread rain on Wednesday and Thursday precedes a cooler weekend with scattered PM showers/storms.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
A weak mid level shortwave tracking over Central PA is supporting nothing more than a few light showers/sprinkles across the north-central mountains as of 03Z. Weak large scale forcing as inferred by model 500-300mb qvec convergence fields, combined with almost no cape per SPC mesoanalysis, suggests that coverage will remain sparse as the shortwave moves through the eastern half of the state after midnight.

Surging low level moisture, combined with a light upsloping flow, appears likely to result in persistent low clouds over the Allegheny Plateau overnight, with late night ridgetop fog possible. Further east, model RH profiles support partial clearing in the wake of the exiting shortwave late tonight.
However, lack of rain in most areas and mostly cloudy skies through a good deal of the night argue for a low risk of radiation fog south and east of the Alleghenies.

Cloud cover and surging dewpoints will result in a milder night than we've seen recently, with lows in the mid 50s over the N Mtns, to mid 60s across the Lower Susq Valley.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Upper level ridging building into PA favors warmer and drier weather Mon-Tue. However, isolated, diurnally-driven convection is possible both days. On Monday, the best chance of an afternoon shower/tsra is over the northeast part of the forecast area associated with a weak shortwave diving south across the Hudson Valley. The upper ridge is progged to lie directly over PA Tuesday, suppressing convection in general. However, can't rule out an isolated PM pulse-type shower/tsra forming on the ridgetops of Central PA.

Ensemble mean 850mb temps of around 14C supports high temps Monday ranging from the mid 70s over the highest elevations of the Alleghenies, to the mid 80s in the Lower Susq Valley.
Ensemble 850mb/2m temp plumes indicate highs may be a degree or two warmer Tuesday.

Clearing skies and a calm wind may promote patchy valley fog late Monday night, primarily in the favored deep/river stream valleys of North Central PA.

The next notable chance for rain arrives on Wednesday afternoon as a low pressure system drifting across the Great Lakes helps bring surging Gulf Coast moisture into the northeast. Increasing clouds on Wednesday will keep temperatures in check with highs most likely in the mid 70s to low 80s. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase into Wednesday evening.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
The most concentrated showers and possible tsra should come with the passage of the low level jet just ahead of the cold/occluded front passage Wed PM into early Thursday. Strong upper level diffluence and +1-2SD pwats support a decent rainfall for most of the area. Ensemble plumes suggest most likely areal average rainfall Wed-into early Thu is around a half inch.

Latest GEFS and EPS indicate drier weather will arrive by Thursday PM, as the low level jet/plume of highest pwats shift east of PA with the exiting cold/occluded front. However, scattered, diurnally-driven showers appear probable Thu PM through next weekend, especially over the NW Mtns, associated with a closed upper low pivoting across the Eastern Grt Lks.
GEFS 2m temp anomalies support highs several degrees below average Fri-Sun. A decent pressure gradient supports an active northwest breeze into the nighttime hours, likely holding min temps near normal for early June.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Rain showers should be east of the central PA airspace by 5-6Z as forcing wanes. MVFR ceilings will continue for the western airfields and develop farther east into UNV/AOO/IPT later this evening through tonight. Fog and IFR Ceilings will be possible late tonight/early Monday morning for these same spots as westerly flow results in upslope and stratus development.

Sunrise will bring an improvement to sub-VFR conditions at the central and eastern terminals. However, the western sites will take a couple of hours to rise to MVFR then finally VFR. The instability and left over moisture could spark a SHRA or two Monday afternoon, but coverage is not expected to be enough to warrant mention for any site. There is the possibility (15-20%)
for a TSRA at MDT/LNS/IPT in the afternoon, but again have kept mention out given the low probability at this time.

Outlook...

Tue...AM fog/IFR possible SE. Otherwise, no sig wx.
Wed...Sct SHRA/TSRA with restrictions possible PM.
Wed night-Thurs...CFROPA with numerous SHRA/TSRA. Flight restrictions likely (70%). IFR possible (30%).
Friday...AM fog poss, sct PM SHRA/TSRA.

CLIMATE
Prelim May and Spring 2024 Temperature & Precipitation Rankings

Harrisburg: T12th warmest; 76th driest May T3rd warmest; 33rd wettest Spring

Williamsport: 9th warmest; 22nd wettest May 4th warmest; 11th wettest Spring

Altoona: 9th warmest; 13th wettest May 2nd warmest; 3rd wettest Spring

Bradford: 4th warmest; 36th driest May Warmest; 21st wettest Spring

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:15 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:44 AM EDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:38 PM EDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:43 PM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:34 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:39 AM EDT     2.63 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:43 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:04 PM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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