Sunrise 5:34 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 12:28 PM   Moonset 12:25 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1227 Am Edt Fri Jun 14 2024
Overnight - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less. Sat - N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun night - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 1227 Am Edt Fri Jun 14 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a cold front will pass through this evening. High pressure will return over the weekend before exiting offshore early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed late tonight into Saturday morning, and perhaps again Monday into Monday night.

FXUS61 KCTP 140320 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1120 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will pass off of the Mid Atlantic coast today, as a cold front pushes into the Great Lakes. This front will cross Pennsylvania on Friday, followed by Canadian high pressure building in for this weekend. An anomalous subtropical ridge is likely to build over the East Coast next week, bringing increased heat and humidity.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
The few showers that developed earlier this evening across the southeast have dissipated and mainly dry conditions are expected into the early morning. Some patchy fog could develop overnight, mainly across the eastern half of central PA with mainly clear skies, light winds, and increasing dew points.

High clouds will begin working their way into the northwest overnight ahead of an approaching trough. The cloud cover will begin to thicken towards sunrise and a few showers will be possible as well, though most of the rain should hold off until the late morning. Temperatures overnight will range from the low 60s across the northern and western mountains, to the upper 60s farther to the southeast.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Model guidance pushes the upper trough and associated cold front through Central PA Friday, accompanied by a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. A couple of shortwaves will be moving through the larger trough, with the first moving into the northern half of the area during the late morning/early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will move into the northwest around noon and will spread southeastward with the cold front. As they progress through the area, they will enter an increasingly unstable environment, with most guidance showing 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing across the southeastern half of the region. Deep layer shear of 40 to 50 knots will support some organization and a few severe storms will be possible. The main threat looks to be damaging winds with steep low level lapse rates and fairly deep boundary layer mixing, though hail will be possible as well. Later in the afternoon, mid level flow begins to increase across the Lower Susquehanna Valley as a second shortwave moves in from the west. This will allow for more storm development into the evening.

Strong large scale forcing ahead of the upper trough and seasonably high pwats support POPs in the 60-80pct range Friday over most of Central PA. Latest ensemble plumes indicate just a few tenths of an inch rainfall for most locations, with isolated 1-2+" amounts in any storms.

Any evening showers/tsra over the southeast counties should end shortly after sunset Friday, as the cold front exits the state.
High pressure building in behind the front should bring clearing skies and cooler air Friday night.

Abundant sunshine and seasonal temps are expected Saturday, as the high pressure system and associated low-pwat air mass builds into the region. The center of high is progged to pass over Central PA Saturday night, resulting in favorable conditions for radiational cooling and low temperatures in the 40s and low 50s. This will be the last time we see temperatures in the 40s in PA for the foreseeable future...

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
An extended period of above average temperatures is increasingly likely as a large ridge builds across the eastern US. This will allow for MaxTs and MinTs +10 to +15F above climatology for the middle of June. Model differences have become slightly better resolved with respect to the strength of the ridge, outlining higher confidence of abnormally warm temperatures extending northward into PA.

Less humid conditions on Monday will bring heat index values into the mid-to-upper 90s, with some valley locations across central/southern PA pushing close to the 100F mark. Tuesday will likely be the warmest day with most guidance showing a 597+ dm ridge centered over or just to the east of the area. With the surface high off to the east, southerly flow will usher in higher dew points that will allow for heat index values to reach 100-105 degrees over a large portion of the area. Humid conditions will continue into Wednesday and Thursday with anomalously warm conditions continuing into the end of the week.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Late evening update.

A few showers got going over the far southeast earlier this evening, but a cap at mid levels and loss of heating has made it hard for the showers to hold together over our area. Still a few just south of the PA, MD border as of 10 PM.

Earlier discussion below.

For the 00Z TAF package, looking at a dry evening so far. One small shower formed for a couple of minutes earlier just before 6 PM, but is gone now.

Later tonight/early Friday, as a cold front approaches, lower clouds and a band of showers/thunderstorms will approach the Commonwealth from the NW. Expect the activity to weaken as it heads southeast late.

Models still trying to form a band of showers that could edge into the far southeast later tonight, but so far, not sign of anything. Temperatures on the warm side, but not all that humid for shower formation.

Showers and storms work to the east and south on Friday, with some potential for gusty winds with storms. This will depend on the amount heating, timing of the activity, and the amount of phasing with the lee side trough.

Still expect showers and storms to taper off from late afternoon into the evening. Upper level forcing may result in the activity across the far south and east to be slow to taper off.

Anyway, used a TEMPO group later Friday to cover any storms with brief gusty winds.

Clearing out nicely over the weekend, as drier air builds into the region from the north.

Outlook...

Sat-Sun...Predominantly VFR.

Mon and Tue...Mainly VFR. Isolated afternoon/evening TSRA possible, with any restrictions brief in nature.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:33 AM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:31 AM EDT     1.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:40 PM EDT     2.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:47 AM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:46 AM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:41 PM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:29 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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