Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 9:06 PM Moonrise 3:58 PM   Moonset 1:47 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

LEZ145 Vermilion To Avon Point Oh-avon Point To Willowick Oh- Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh-geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- 944 Pm Edt Sun Jun 16 2024
Overnight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 71 degrees, off cleveland 68 degrees, and off erie 68 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 171348 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 948 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper ridge will remain in place over the region through this week, resulting in near-record temperatures across the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Convection is already starting to pop across the area with some convective temperatures being met in a couple spots, while a remnant MCV drives some stronger convection on the Canadian side of Lake Erie. Coverage will increase through the morning hours and scattered showers and thunderstorms will be present by afternoon. A new addition with this update is a Day 1 Marginal Risk for severe weather from SPC. DCAPE values of 800 J/kg have entered the region with iso/sct convection, which will mean that any storm that develops could have a stronger wind gust with it.

630 AM Update...
A diffuse outflow boundary from the remnant MCV in MI will likely stall somewhere across northern OH this morning, which could be the basis for convective initiation later this afternoon. High temperature forecast (mid to upper 90s) looks to remain on track with just some high cirrus overhead.

Previous Discussion...
A prolonged heat wave will begin across the region today and persist through at least Friday. Daily maximum heat indices near or above 100 degrees are likely with low temperatures not expected to dip below 70 degrees. Have upgraded the entirety of the Excessive Heat Watch to a Heat Advisory in this update.
Further targeted, localized upgrades to Excessive Heat Warnings remain possible, especially in urban centers where heat stress will be maximized.

For today, the upper-level ridge will continue to establish itself across the Eastern CONUS. Closer to the surface, a mesoscale convective complex continues to slowly pivot eastwards across southern MI, likely aided by a modest 700 mb jet. Recent satellite imagery continues to indicate healthy cloud-top cooling with mesoscale analysis suggesting continued convective development along an approaching warm front/instability gradient. Will need to continue to monitor this feature as it will likely become the main forcing mechanism for any thunderstorms in our area this afternoon, particularly across NE OH and NW PA. An approaching weak surface trough, evident on vapor water imagery in the western KY vicinity, could kick off some isolated thunderstorms elsewhere, though confidence is lower on coverage. Any thunderstorms that do develop today will have a strong downburst potential given steep low-level lapse rates > 8 C/km, strong surface instability > 3000 J/kg, and large theta-e differences.

A similar scenario will unfold on Tuesday with isolated to scattered thunderstorms as deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture attempts to round the ridge axis. Another weak surface trough is expected to arrive from the south, in addition to the better possibility of a lake breeze, particularly from Cleveland eastward. Once again, any thunderstorms that do develop will have a strong downburst potential given a similar environment to Monday.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
One of the consistent difficulties in the forecast for this stretch of weather dominated by a strong dome of upper level high pressure to the east/northeast of the CWA is trying to determine if there is enough layer moisture for convection to develop, and if so, to what extent. The operational models continue to try to push out QPF associated with weak waves in the south to north flow, but looking at forecast soundings shows it remains pretty dry above the boundary layer. Will opt to keep some low POPs in across the area just because there is not enough confidence to completely remove them given the setup and feel isolated convection is a reasonable forecast. Thursday is a day for stronger ridging aloft, getting away from the south to north flow with a westward expansion of the ridge axis into the southern Great Lakes. This keeps the baroclinic zone well to the north of the CWA and likely cuts off the tropical flow of moisture as well. Some trickiness to the temperatures Wednesday as there will not be any real change to the airmass in place but there could be an increase in high level/cirrus cloud cover. This could keep the temperatures down a degree or two from previous forecasts where every degree helps in this hotter pattern. Dewpoints have come up slightly however, and the the apparent temperature values likely are not going to change much if the slightly cooler forecast materializes. Expecting Thursday to be a little hotter once again with slight 500mb height increases from the aforementioned expanding ridge axis influence over the CWA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Expecting gradual degradation of the dominant upper level ridge pattern along with a southward migration for the end of the week and into the weekend. At this point, trying to pin down the next significant chances for rain which appear to be Sunday. Flow aloft will become a bit more zonal allowing for more organized systems to work into the area. Still on the hot side for Thursday and Friday, but gradual cooling through the long term and should be in in the 80s by Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
VFR across the TAF sites this morning with primarily VFR to persist through the TAF period. Have kept vcts mention in most TAF sites (minus ERI) as an outflow boundary from the convective complex in MI could be the basis for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Confidence remains low on thunderstorm placement and coverage. Any thunderstorm that does impact a TAF site this afternoon will bring a strong downburst and heavy rain threat.

Winds are generally out of the south this morning, 5 to 8 knots. Winds will favor a southwest direction later this morning and afternoon, around 10 knots, before shifting back towards the south, 5 to 8 knots, by late this evening.

Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Friday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon, but confidence is low.

MARINE
Offshore winds generally less than 10kts through Wednesday become light and variable for the end of the week. Wave heights through the entire forecast period less than a foot through Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms possible today and Tuesday.

CLIMATE
A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected this week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach or exceed record highs on several days. The records for Monday, June 17 to Friday, June 21 are listed below for our official climate sites.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-17 97(1994) 94(1936) 94(2018) 94(2018) 95(1994) 90(2018)
06-18 98(1994) 93(1994) 96(1944) 96(1944) 95(1994) 92(2018)
06-19 98(1995) 94(1994) 92(1995) 94(1994) 94(1994) 92(1931)
06-20 98(1953) 94(1988) 96(1988) 95(1933) 95(1933) 92(2016)
06-21 100(2022) 96(1988) 95(2022) 97(1933) 98(1933) 95(1933)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023- 027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Cleveland, OH,