Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lawrence, KS
June 2, 2024 10:07 AM CDT (15:07 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:55 AM Sunset 8:43 PM Moonrise 2:17 AM Moonset 3:40 PM |
FXUS63 KTOP 021118 AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 618 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- While not a complete washout, several chances for thunderstorms continue through Tuesday evening.
- Most likely widespread precip chances are on Sunday evening and Tuesday evening along the cold front.
- Few storms could be marginally strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail as the main hazards.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Active pattern this morning with several clusters of storms stretching from the Dakotas to Texas. Embedded perturbation traversing through KS this morning has aided in a line of storms forming near the theta-e gradient (west of highway 75 in central KS)
accompanied by 1500 J/G of MUCAPE and around 25-40 kts of effective shear. The southerly LLJ has aided in isolated updrafts producing severe hail, but otherwise are expected to move into a more stable environment and should gradually weaken by sunrise across far eastern KS. CAMs continue to struggle with storm coverage and tracking given the weaker upper forcing aloft through the short term period, leading to less than average confidence in storm development through the morning and afternoon periods. Overall indications that weak height rises and a decent capping layer should inhibit afternoon convection. On another note, low level moisture increases this afternoon as southerly winds become gusty from 15 to 20 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Dewpoints peak near 70 degrees along with highs in the 80s, creating warm and humid conditions through at least Tuesday.
Another round of more widespread strong to severe storms is anticipated to form across western KS and western NE late today before tracking eastward into north central KS in the late evening hours. Models vary somewhat on the development of a secondary MCS over southern KS or OK that could persist over east central KS into Monday morning. Initial storms will have between 2000-3000 J/KG of MUCAPE as they impact north central Kansas so large hail along with damaging wind gusts are possible. As the elevated instability wanes to around 1000 J/KG by Monday morning, damaging wind gusts become the main hazard for the remaining area.
CAMs are showing a persistent signal of a residual boundary that sets up over far northeast Kansas on Monday afternoon that may lead to isolated storm development. Coverage overall should be limited so have maintained the low chance pops through the overnight hours as there may be another MCS that impacts southeast Kansas late Monday night.
A stronger northern stream upper trough accompanied by a cold front increases confidence in a line of storms forming late Tuesday afternoon and evening directly over northeast Kansas before shifting southeast. Highest pops of the forecast (above 70%)with latest ensemble guidance focusing convection east of highway 75, quickly moving southeast into early Wednesday morning.
Upper ridging to the west finally signals a drier period from Wednesday onward as temperatures and humidity lower by Thursday as highs reach around 80 degrees. Operational ECMWF depicts an embedded trough within the northwest flow bringing precip back to the area this weekend while the GFS is dry throughout the region. For now, slight chance pops seem to make sense until better consistency is realized.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
VFR expected with a low chance for MVFR conditions if a heavier thunderstorm moves over terminals this morning. Overall instability is decreasing so opted for VCTS at KTOP/KFOE with some uncertainty on TSRA to the west maintaining itself to impact terminals. TSRA currently at KMHK should be clear to the east by 12Z. A second line of TSRA observed in central KS should gradually weaken east through 17Z, despite some models trying to bring the remnant showers and TSRA through the area.
Plan to maintain SHRA with VCTS mention for this scenario thru 17Z. Clouds should scatter out by 21Z west to east. A cluster of TSRA may impact terminals in the 06-12Z time frame with much uncertainty on timing and impacts this far out.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 618 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- While not a complete washout, several chances for thunderstorms continue through Tuesday evening.
- Most likely widespread precip chances are on Sunday evening and Tuesday evening along the cold front.
- Few storms could be marginally strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail as the main hazards.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Active pattern this morning with several clusters of storms stretching from the Dakotas to Texas. Embedded perturbation traversing through KS this morning has aided in a line of storms forming near the theta-e gradient (west of highway 75 in central KS)
accompanied by 1500 J/G of MUCAPE and around 25-40 kts of effective shear. The southerly LLJ has aided in isolated updrafts producing severe hail, but otherwise are expected to move into a more stable environment and should gradually weaken by sunrise across far eastern KS. CAMs continue to struggle with storm coverage and tracking given the weaker upper forcing aloft through the short term period, leading to less than average confidence in storm development through the morning and afternoon periods. Overall indications that weak height rises and a decent capping layer should inhibit afternoon convection. On another note, low level moisture increases this afternoon as southerly winds become gusty from 15 to 20 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Dewpoints peak near 70 degrees along with highs in the 80s, creating warm and humid conditions through at least Tuesday.
Another round of more widespread strong to severe storms is anticipated to form across western KS and western NE late today before tracking eastward into north central KS in the late evening hours. Models vary somewhat on the development of a secondary MCS over southern KS or OK that could persist over east central KS into Monday morning. Initial storms will have between 2000-3000 J/KG of MUCAPE as they impact north central Kansas so large hail along with damaging wind gusts are possible. As the elevated instability wanes to around 1000 J/KG by Monday morning, damaging wind gusts become the main hazard for the remaining area.
CAMs are showing a persistent signal of a residual boundary that sets up over far northeast Kansas on Monday afternoon that may lead to isolated storm development. Coverage overall should be limited so have maintained the low chance pops through the overnight hours as there may be another MCS that impacts southeast Kansas late Monday night.
A stronger northern stream upper trough accompanied by a cold front increases confidence in a line of storms forming late Tuesday afternoon and evening directly over northeast Kansas before shifting southeast. Highest pops of the forecast (above 70%)with latest ensemble guidance focusing convection east of highway 75, quickly moving southeast into early Wednesday morning.
Upper ridging to the west finally signals a drier period from Wednesday onward as temperatures and humidity lower by Thursday as highs reach around 80 degrees. Operational ECMWF depicts an embedded trough within the northwest flow bringing precip back to the area this weekend while the GFS is dry throughout the region. For now, slight chance pops seem to make sense until better consistency is realized.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
VFR expected with a low chance for MVFR conditions if a heavier thunderstorm moves over terminals this morning. Overall instability is decreasing so opted for VCTS at KTOP/KFOE with some uncertainty on TSRA to the west maintaining itself to impact terminals. TSRA currently at KMHK should be clear to the east by 12Z. A second line of TSRA observed in central KS should gradually weaken east through 17Z, despite some models trying to bring the remnant showers and TSRA through the area.
Plan to maintain SHRA with VCTS mention for this scenario thru 17Z. Clouds should scatter out by 21Z west to east. A cluster of TSRA may impact terminals in the 06-12Z time frame with much uncertainty on timing and impacts this far out.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLWC LAWRENCE MUNI,KS | 8 sm | 15 min | SE 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 72°F | 66°F | 83% | 29.95 | |
| KFOE TOPEKA RGNL,KS | 17 sm | 14 min | SE 07 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 72°F | 66°F | 83% | 29.92 | |
| KTOP PHILIP BILLARD MUNI,KS | 18 sm | 14 min | ESE 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 73°F | 68°F | 83% | 29.92 |
Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,
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