Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Accomac, VA
June 13, 2024 6:51 PM EDT (22:51 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:36 AM Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 11:28 AM Moonset 12:00 AM |
ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 636 Pm Edt Thu Jun 13 2024
Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 3 seconds and E 2 ft at 7 seconds.
Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 foot at 8 seconds.
Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 foot at 8 seconds. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Sat - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 8 seconds and N 2 ft at 2 seconds.
Sat night - SE winds 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 foot at 15 seconds.
Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 foot at 14 seconds.
Sun night - SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 636 Pm Edt Thu Jun 13 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure off the coast moves farther east tonight, as a cold front approaches from the nw on Friday. This cold front will cross the region Friday night, with high pressure building across the area for the weekend. This high will shift offshore for next week.
high pressure off the coast moves farther east tonight, as a cold front approaches from the nw on Friday. This cold front will cross the region Friday night, with high pressure building across the area for the weekend. This high will shift offshore for next week.
FXUS61 KAKQ 131856 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 256 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will be centered off the coast today, bringing a warmup to the region to end the week. A cold front pushes through Friday night with a chance for a few showers and storms. Dry with seasonable temperatures over the weekend, followed by a hot and mainly dry pattern next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
Key message:
- Warming trend begins today, but still seasonable with moderate humidity levels.
Quiet/dry weather over the region this afternoon with high pressure centered off the mid-Atlantic coast. Dewpoints are a touch higher today compared to the past couple of days, generally in the mid to upper 60s. Temperatures are running in the mid to upper 80s inland and low to mid 80s closer to the coast and across the SE (where we have seen a bit more in the way of high cloud cover this afternoon).
A weak shortwave approaches from the NW this evening, bringing a low- end chance for an isolated pop up shower across the west/NW (not enough to mention in the forecast). Mostly clear tonight, except for the potential for some increasing clouds over the far SE zones on the edge of a low offshore overnight. Seasonably warm with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Hot Friday with moderate humidity levels, a chance for storms Friday evening/night.
- Dry weather and cooler temperatures (seasonable) return for Saturday into Sunday.
On Friday, an upper level ridge slowly pushes east across the southern plains and into the lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front begins to push SE from the Great Lakes towards the mid Atlantic, which should keep a coastal low system just far enough offshore to keep the local area dry. With deep mixing and 850 mb temperatures rising to 18-20C expect a very warm day for inland locations with high temperatures climbing into the lower 90s. Closer to the coast, a slight onshore component to the wind will keep temperatures in the 80s. Dew points continue to be fairly low, mixing into the low-mid 60s, which will act to mitigate the heat index from being much warmer than the actual air temp.
A cold front drops SE across the local area Friday evening into Friday night with at least a chance for showers/storms possible (highest across N/NE portions of the FA). Will also have to watch the potential for a stronger storm or two potentially slipping into far northern and northeastern portions of the area. SPC has a Day 2 Marginal Risk of severe weather just touching our northern border and into far western Louisa/Fluvanna counties. The main risk with any stronger storms tomorrow will be damaging wind gusts. Lows will range from the 60s to near 70 (warmest SE).
Upper level trough moves offshore Saturday with the center of > 1020mb sfc high pressure moving from the Great Lakes to New England before sliding off the Mid Atlantic later in the weekend. Overall, it will be a pleasant start to the weekend with dew points falling back into the 50s N to lower 60s S with highs in the low-mid 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland. Lows Saturday night will be near to a little below average with high pressure over the region, ranging from the low to mid 60s for most, with some upper 50s over rural interior sections.
Highs on Sunday will be similar to Saturday or perhaps a degree or two warmer, as the high becomes centered offshore. Highs will range from the upper 80s inland (around 90 RIC metro) with low to mid 80s closer to the coast (upper 70s Atlantic coast of the eastern shore).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Hot and mainly dry weather returns next week, likely persisting through the week.
Models continue to depict the upper level ridge building across the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS next week. The 12Z/13 ECMWF remains the strongest and most persistent with the ridge with the highest H5 heights (around 600 dm with the core just N of the local area by midweek). The 12Z/13 GFS is fairly similar, (H5 heights ~598dm) and shows a similar placement through midweek. The ensemble means are also in good agreement so confidence is high at seeing an extended period of hot and mainly dry weather. The core of the heat will be slightly to our N through midweek which will keep some degree of low level onshore flow intact. Highs should be into the low-mid 90s well inland (perhaps some upper 90s Tue-Wed), but will tend to stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s closer to the coast). The continental origin of the ridge may mitigate heat indices to some extent (at least through the midweek timeframe). The current forecast has heat indices through midweek not too far above air temperatures, generally in the mid to upper 90s.
Overnight lows will likely creep up through the week and range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
VFR conditions across area terminals this afternoon will continue through the 18Z TAF period. SCT-BKN clouds at 5-6 k ft have developed over the area and will persist through the afternoon and will diminish this evening. SSW winds average 5-10 kt inland, with E-SE winds around 10 kt or a little higher close to the coast. Partly cloudy to mostly clear with light southerly winds tonight.
Outlook: A cold front crosses the area Friday evening into Friday night with a low chance for a few evening showers or storms (best chance NE of KRIC to KSBY). Winds shift around to the N-NE Saturday morning and will likely be a bit elevated along the coast into the aftn (gusting to around 20 kt) as high pressure builds in from the N. After that, winds will average 10 kt or less with VFR conditions and mostly clear skies into early next week as high pressure gradually shifts off the coast.
MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Brief period of S-SE winds of 15 to 20 kt inside the Chesapeake Bay through this evening leading to a small craft advisory being issued.
- Southerly winds turn northerly Friday night behind a cold front.
Northerly winds are expected to gust to 20 to 25 kt late Fri night into Saturday.
Winds inside the bay are starting to increase this afternoon with York Spit already at 15G20kt. This is in response to the tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure to the east and the lee trough to the west of the waters. As such, will opt to issue a small craft advisory for much of the bay through this evening with 15 to 20 kt winds. These southerly winds should relax later this evening and remain around 10-15kt through Friday. A cold front currently over the Ohio Valley will pass through the region Friday night, allowing winds to turn northerly. There may be a weak surge behind this front, and have continued winds gusting to 20 kt late Friday night into Saturday as the high builds in from the northwest. This high will shift offshore by Monday, allowing winds to become NE on Sunday then SE-S at 15 kt for the early part of next week.
Seas generally 2 to 3 feet over the ocean and 1 to 3 ft in the bay through the period.
We will continue with a moderate risk of rip currents for the northern beaches on Friday, with a moderate risk of rip currents for all of the beaches on Saturday. Surf height during these periods of moderate rip current risk will reach 3 feet.
CLIMATE
Record highs are not expected Friday, but are listed below for reference as RIC could be close:
- RIC: 99 (1926)
- ORF: 97 (1945)
- SBY: 97 (1945)
- ECG: 98 (1944)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 256 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will be centered off the coast today, bringing a warmup to the region to end the week. A cold front pushes through Friday night with a chance for a few showers and storms. Dry with seasonable temperatures over the weekend, followed by a hot and mainly dry pattern next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
Key message:
- Warming trend begins today, but still seasonable with moderate humidity levels.
Quiet/dry weather over the region this afternoon with high pressure centered off the mid-Atlantic coast. Dewpoints are a touch higher today compared to the past couple of days, generally in the mid to upper 60s. Temperatures are running in the mid to upper 80s inland and low to mid 80s closer to the coast and across the SE (where we have seen a bit more in the way of high cloud cover this afternoon).
A weak shortwave approaches from the NW this evening, bringing a low- end chance for an isolated pop up shower across the west/NW (not enough to mention in the forecast). Mostly clear tonight, except for the potential for some increasing clouds over the far SE zones on the edge of a low offshore overnight. Seasonably warm with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Hot Friday with moderate humidity levels, a chance for storms Friday evening/night.
- Dry weather and cooler temperatures (seasonable) return for Saturday into Sunday.
On Friday, an upper level ridge slowly pushes east across the southern plains and into the lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front begins to push SE from the Great Lakes towards the mid Atlantic, which should keep a coastal low system just far enough offshore to keep the local area dry. With deep mixing and 850 mb temperatures rising to 18-20C expect a very warm day for inland locations with high temperatures climbing into the lower 90s. Closer to the coast, a slight onshore component to the wind will keep temperatures in the 80s. Dew points continue to be fairly low, mixing into the low-mid 60s, which will act to mitigate the heat index from being much warmer than the actual air temp.
A cold front drops SE across the local area Friday evening into Friday night with at least a chance for showers/storms possible (highest across N/NE portions of the FA). Will also have to watch the potential for a stronger storm or two potentially slipping into far northern and northeastern portions of the area. SPC has a Day 2 Marginal Risk of severe weather just touching our northern border and into far western Louisa/Fluvanna counties. The main risk with any stronger storms tomorrow will be damaging wind gusts. Lows will range from the 60s to near 70 (warmest SE).
Upper level trough moves offshore Saturday with the center of > 1020mb sfc high pressure moving from the Great Lakes to New England before sliding off the Mid Atlantic later in the weekend. Overall, it will be a pleasant start to the weekend with dew points falling back into the 50s N to lower 60s S with highs in the low-mid 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland. Lows Saturday night will be near to a little below average with high pressure over the region, ranging from the low to mid 60s for most, with some upper 50s over rural interior sections.
Highs on Sunday will be similar to Saturday or perhaps a degree or two warmer, as the high becomes centered offshore. Highs will range from the upper 80s inland (around 90 RIC metro) with low to mid 80s closer to the coast (upper 70s Atlantic coast of the eastern shore).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Hot and mainly dry weather returns next week, likely persisting through the week.
Models continue to depict the upper level ridge building across the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS next week. The 12Z/13 ECMWF remains the strongest and most persistent with the ridge with the highest H5 heights (around 600 dm with the core just N of the local area by midweek). The 12Z/13 GFS is fairly similar, (H5 heights ~598dm) and shows a similar placement through midweek. The ensemble means are also in good agreement so confidence is high at seeing an extended period of hot and mainly dry weather. The core of the heat will be slightly to our N through midweek which will keep some degree of low level onshore flow intact. Highs should be into the low-mid 90s well inland (perhaps some upper 90s Tue-Wed), but will tend to stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s closer to the coast). The continental origin of the ridge may mitigate heat indices to some extent (at least through the midweek timeframe). The current forecast has heat indices through midweek not too far above air temperatures, generally in the mid to upper 90s.
Overnight lows will likely creep up through the week and range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
VFR conditions across area terminals this afternoon will continue through the 18Z TAF period. SCT-BKN clouds at 5-6 k ft have developed over the area and will persist through the afternoon and will diminish this evening. SSW winds average 5-10 kt inland, with E-SE winds around 10 kt or a little higher close to the coast. Partly cloudy to mostly clear with light southerly winds tonight.
Outlook: A cold front crosses the area Friday evening into Friday night with a low chance for a few evening showers or storms (best chance NE of KRIC to KSBY). Winds shift around to the N-NE Saturday morning and will likely be a bit elevated along the coast into the aftn (gusting to around 20 kt) as high pressure builds in from the N. After that, winds will average 10 kt or less with VFR conditions and mostly clear skies into early next week as high pressure gradually shifts off the coast.
MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Brief period of S-SE winds of 15 to 20 kt inside the Chesapeake Bay through this evening leading to a small craft advisory being issued.
- Southerly winds turn northerly Friday night behind a cold front.
Northerly winds are expected to gust to 20 to 25 kt late Fri night into Saturday.
Winds inside the bay are starting to increase this afternoon with York Spit already at 15G20kt. This is in response to the tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure to the east and the lee trough to the west of the waters. As such, will opt to issue a small craft advisory for much of the bay through this evening with 15 to 20 kt winds. These southerly winds should relax later this evening and remain around 10-15kt through Friday. A cold front currently over the Ohio Valley will pass through the region Friday night, allowing winds to turn northerly. There may be a weak surge behind this front, and have continued winds gusting to 20 kt late Friday night into Saturday as the high builds in from the northwest. This high will shift offshore by Monday, allowing winds to become NE on Sunday then SE-S at 15 kt for the early part of next week.
Seas generally 2 to 3 feet over the ocean and 1 to 3 ft in the bay through the period.
We will continue with a moderate risk of rip currents for the northern beaches on Friday, with a moderate risk of rip currents for all of the beaches on Saturday. Surf height during these periods of moderate rip current risk will reach 3 feet.
CLIMATE
Record highs are not expected Friday, but are listed below for reference as RIC could be close:
- RIC: 99 (1926)
- ORF: 97 (1945)
- SBY: 97 (1945)
- ECG: 98 (1944)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA | 7 mi | 58 min | S 13G | 81°F | 30.01 | |||
| 44089 | 17 mi | 56 min | 69°F | 2 ft | ||||
| RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA | 23 mi | 58 min | SSE 16G | 30.04 | ||||
| 44058 - Stingray Point, VA | 34 mi | 46 min | SSE 16G | 76°F | 77°F | 2 ft | ||
| KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA | 41 mi | 58 min | S 16G | 76°F | 30.03 | |||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 42 mi | 58 min | SSE 19G | 82°F | 29.99 | |||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 43 mi | 46 min | SSE 18G | 75°F | 76°F | 1 ft | ||
| 44072 | 48 mi | 46 min | SE 18G | 76°F | 2 ft | |||
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 48 mi | 58 min | S 16G | 81°F | 29.97 |
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Wind History graph: MFV
(wind in knots)Folly Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:00 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 02:24 AM EDT 3.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:39 AM EDT 0.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:27 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 03:13 PM EDT 2.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:53 PM EDT 0.99 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:00 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 02:24 AM EDT 3.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:39 AM EDT 0.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:27 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 03:13 PM EDT 2.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:53 PM EDT 0.99 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Folly Creek, Metompkin Inlet, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.5 |
| 1 am |
| 2.9 |
| 2 am |
| 3.1 |
| 3 am |
| 3.1 |
| 4 am |
| 2.6 |
| 5 am |
| 2 |
| 6 am |
| 1.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 0.8 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 3 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.6 |
Onancock
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:01 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:40 AM EDT 1.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 12:20 PM EDT 0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:28 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 06:16 PM EDT 1.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:01 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:40 AM EDT 1.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 12:20 PM EDT 0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:28 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 06:16 PM EDT 1.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Onancock, Onancock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.5 |
| 2 am |
| 0.8 |
| 3 am |
| 1.1 |
| 4 am |
| 1.4 |
| 5 am |
| 1.6 |
| 6 am |
| 1.6 |
| 7 am |
| 1.5 |
| 8 am |
| 1.3 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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