Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ocean Acres, NJ
June 14, 2024 12:10 PM EDT (16:10 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:26 AM Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 1:21 PM Moonset 1:18 AM |
ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1136 Am Edt Fri Jun 14 2024
Rest of today - S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds and se 1 foot at 13 seconds.
Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds and se 1 foot at 12 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sat - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 6 seconds and S 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 8 seconds and ne 2 ft at 5 seconds.
Sun - NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 5 seconds and se 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Sun night - SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 7 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds.
Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1136 Am Edt Fri Jun 14 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay - A cold front crosses our area late this afternoon into tonight. High pressure begins to build in later tonight and then it remains in place over the region through the weekend. A warm front lifts through Monday, but surface high pressure looks to control our weather through at least the middle of next week.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 141541 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1141 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front crosses our area late this afternoon into tonight.
High pressure begins to build in later tonight and then it remains in place over the region through the weekend. A warm front lifts through Monday, but surface high pressure looks to control our weather through at least the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1135 AM, issued a quick update primarily to increase the PoPs quite a bit for the next few hours mainly across the Pocono region into northwestern New Jersey. An area of more organized showers continues to advance east-northeastward associated with what appears to be a weak shortwave and surface trough. Much of the high-resolution guidance is not capturing these showers well so far. In addition, increased the cloud cover in that area faster. A stronger wave is across western Pennsylvania as of this writing and this looks to be what much of the guidance is focusing on for convective development through the afternoon.
Otherwise, today starts off rather tranquil before a round of showers and thunderstorms arrive for the second half of the day. An upper-level trough is forecast to arrive later today, bringing with it a cold front that will push through from west to east this afternoon and evening. While the parent trough is farther north, the southern portion of it has stronger shortwave energy and is timed during peak heating across our region.
Ample instability is forecast to be in place (MLCAPE up to 1500 J/Kg) given air temperatures forecast to be in the 80s with even some lower 90s and dew points in the 60s. The model forecast soundings show a well mixed and warm boundary layer in the afternoon and early evening. This results in an inverted-V profile in the lower levels and thus increasing the downdraft instability (DCAPE). Low-level lapse rates are rather favorable as well, with around 9.0 C/km in the 0-3km layer, moderating to around 6.0 C/km in the 3-6km layer. This all said, the limiting factor is expected to be deep layer shear, with rather weak flow in the low and mid levels and stronger winds in the upper levels. The best shear is also displaced north and west of the region.
Putting this all together, convection is forecast to develop to our northwest and west and then propagate east and southeastward during the afternoon and evening along and ahead of the cold front. While coverage and timing does vary some among the guidance suite, convection should organize into a few clusters or a broken line as it shifts into and across our area, with this possibly weakening near and especially south and east of I-95. This will depend on the timing as southerly flow ahead of the convection and front will bring some marine influence into portions of the coastal plain.
Locally damaging winds are the main severe weather threat especially with stronger cores aloft (along with some mid level dry air)
enhancing the downdraft/downburst potential. Freezing levels look to be on the higher side, however some hail cannot be ruled out with some stronger updrafts. The precipitable water values are forecast to be approaching 2 inches for a time ahead of the cold front, and therefore high rainfall rates should occur with the strongest convection for a time. The flash flooding risk however looks to be low overall as storms should be on the move, however there is a non- zero risk focused across mostly our northern and western zones.
The convection looks to be shifting offshore or weakening during the evening hours with the severe thunderstorm risk ending. Some drier air then starts to arrive from the northwest in the wake of the cold front by later Friday night with at least some partial clearing also starting to arrive. Overnight lows will cool into the upper 50s to mid 60s.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure will dominate over the region for the duration of the short term; a dry and quiet forecast is on tap for the weekend.
Not much to write home about regarding this forecast! Highs mainly in the low to mid 80s for Saturday; highs just a bit warmer for Sunday, by about 1-2 degrees. Very comfortable RHs expected for both days with plenty of sunshine. Overall, a stellar weekend!
A sea-breeze will likely develop on Sunday given the weak synoptic flow in the forecast. This sea-breeze could penetrate well in-land by the late afternoon into evening hours.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Summary...Hot but mainly dry forecast.
The synoptic pattern and evolution is nearly certain for the long term. An upper-level ridge over the eastern CONUS Monday will build to the north with time. By the Wednesday time frame, the strong ridge will look to be centered directly over the northeastern CONUS and will likely stay in place for quite a bit. The ensembles suggest it is not until around the time frame of Friday that the ridge and its associated axis will begin to break down a bit.
Overall, heights will only build over the region with time Monday onwards. We could see heights of 594-600 dam over us for Wednesday.
At the surface level, high pressure centered offshore Monday will move eastward with time as a warm front lifts over the region. Even still, surface high pressure looks to largely control the region through the duration of the term. Though some rounds of shortwave energy may pester the region for much of the week, any precipitation development should be largely suppressed given the pattern.
We are mainly looking at a dry forecast into Thursday with temperatures potentially getting warming each day. High temperatures may touch the low 90s for Monday, but widespread highs in the 90s should be anticipated at this point for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. It is still a little too early to really discuss any potential for heat headlines at this point, but the potential will only grow with time as the week progresses.
AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Rest of today...VFR for much of the time, however areas of sub- VFR conditions later in the afternoon and evening as showers and thunderstorms move through with a cold front. South to southwest winds around 10 knots, becoming west later in the afternoon at KRDG and KABE. A TEMPO group included to reflect sub-VFR visibilities due to heavier rain with thunderstorms.
Low confidence with the timing details.
Tonight...Areas of sub-VFR conditions with some showers and thunderstorms, then conditions improve overnight. Westerly winds will become more northerly 5-10 knots. Low confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday through Tuesday...VFR with no significant weather.
MARINE
Through tonight, the conditions are anticipated to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Southerly winds should be the strongest at times across the northern New Jersey coastal waters and possibly up Delaware Bay. However, given much warmer air moving over the cooler waters, mixing should be more limited and since it looks marginal opted to keep the conditions below advisory criteria. Some showers and thunderstorms should arrive late this afternoon and especially tonight, and some storms could produce locally gusty winds. Winds turn more northerly around 10 knots tonight behind the front.
Outlook...
Saturday through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. Fair weather.
Rip Currents...
Today, southerly winds 10 to 20 mph. The flow will be a bit more onshore for most of New Jersey as opposed to Delaware.
Additionally, guidance shows a 2 ft 9-10 second longer period swell from the SE to SSE developing by the afternoon. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for New Jersey beaches where the coastline is more perpendicular or oblique to the longer period swell. LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the Delaware beaches. Breaking waves will be around 2 to 3 feet.
Winds turn offshore for Saturday, with a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents everywhere.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1141 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front crosses our area late this afternoon into tonight.
High pressure begins to build in later tonight and then it remains in place over the region through the weekend. A warm front lifts through Monday, but surface high pressure looks to control our weather through at least the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1135 AM, issued a quick update primarily to increase the PoPs quite a bit for the next few hours mainly across the Pocono region into northwestern New Jersey. An area of more organized showers continues to advance east-northeastward associated with what appears to be a weak shortwave and surface trough. Much of the high-resolution guidance is not capturing these showers well so far. In addition, increased the cloud cover in that area faster. A stronger wave is across western Pennsylvania as of this writing and this looks to be what much of the guidance is focusing on for convective development through the afternoon.
Otherwise, today starts off rather tranquil before a round of showers and thunderstorms arrive for the second half of the day. An upper-level trough is forecast to arrive later today, bringing with it a cold front that will push through from west to east this afternoon and evening. While the parent trough is farther north, the southern portion of it has stronger shortwave energy and is timed during peak heating across our region.
Ample instability is forecast to be in place (MLCAPE up to 1500 J/Kg) given air temperatures forecast to be in the 80s with even some lower 90s and dew points in the 60s. The model forecast soundings show a well mixed and warm boundary layer in the afternoon and early evening. This results in an inverted-V profile in the lower levels and thus increasing the downdraft instability (DCAPE). Low-level lapse rates are rather favorable as well, with around 9.0 C/km in the 0-3km layer, moderating to around 6.0 C/km in the 3-6km layer. This all said, the limiting factor is expected to be deep layer shear, with rather weak flow in the low and mid levels and stronger winds in the upper levels. The best shear is also displaced north and west of the region.
Putting this all together, convection is forecast to develop to our northwest and west and then propagate east and southeastward during the afternoon and evening along and ahead of the cold front. While coverage and timing does vary some among the guidance suite, convection should organize into a few clusters or a broken line as it shifts into and across our area, with this possibly weakening near and especially south and east of I-95. This will depend on the timing as southerly flow ahead of the convection and front will bring some marine influence into portions of the coastal plain.
Locally damaging winds are the main severe weather threat especially with stronger cores aloft (along with some mid level dry air)
enhancing the downdraft/downburst potential. Freezing levels look to be on the higher side, however some hail cannot be ruled out with some stronger updrafts. The precipitable water values are forecast to be approaching 2 inches for a time ahead of the cold front, and therefore high rainfall rates should occur with the strongest convection for a time. The flash flooding risk however looks to be low overall as storms should be on the move, however there is a non- zero risk focused across mostly our northern and western zones.
The convection looks to be shifting offshore or weakening during the evening hours with the severe thunderstorm risk ending. Some drier air then starts to arrive from the northwest in the wake of the cold front by later Friday night with at least some partial clearing also starting to arrive. Overnight lows will cool into the upper 50s to mid 60s.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure will dominate over the region for the duration of the short term; a dry and quiet forecast is on tap for the weekend.
Not much to write home about regarding this forecast! Highs mainly in the low to mid 80s for Saturday; highs just a bit warmer for Sunday, by about 1-2 degrees. Very comfortable RHs expected for both days with plenty of sunshine. Overall, a stellar weekend!
A sea-breeze will likely develop on Sunday given the weak synoptic flow in the forecast. This sea-breeze could penetrate well in-land by the late afternoon into evening hours.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Summary...Hot but mainly dry forecast.
The synoptic pattern and evolution is nearly certain for the long term. An upper-level ridge over the eastern CONUS Monday will build to the north with time. By the Wednesday time frame, the strong ridge will look to be centered directly over the northeastern CONUS and will likely stay in place for quite a bit. The ensembles suggest it is not until around the time frame of Friday that the ridge and its associated axis will begin to break down a bit.
Overall, heights will only build over the region with time Monday onwards. We could see heights of 594-600 dam over us for Wednesday.
At the surface level, high pressure centered offshore Monday will move eastward with time as a warm front lifts over the region. Even still, surface high pressure looks to largely control the region through the duration of the term. Though some rounds of shortwave energy may pester the region for much of the week, any precipitation development should be largely suppressed given the pattern.
We are mainly looking at a dry forecast into Thursday with temperatures potentially getting warming each day. High temperatures may touch the low 90s for Monday, but widespread highs in the 90s should be anticipated at this point for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. It is still a little too early to really discuss any potential for heat headlines at this point, but the potential will only grow with time as the week progresses.
AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Rest of today...VFR for much of the time, however areas of sub- VFR conditions later in the afternoon and evening as showers and thunderstorms move through with a cold front. South to southwest winds around 10 knots, becoming west later in the afternoon at KRDG and KABE. A TEMPO group included to reflect sub-VFR visibilities due to heavier rain with thunderstorms.
Low confidence with the timing details.
Tonight...Areas of sub-VFR conditions with some showers and thunderstorms, then conditions improve overnight. Westerly winds will become more northerly 5-10 knots. Low confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday through Tuesday...VFR with no significant weather.
MARINE
Through tonight, the conditions are anticipated to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Southerly winds should be the strongest at times across the northern New Jersey coastal waters and possibly up Delaware Bay. However, given much warmer air moving over the cooler waters, mixing should be more limited and since it looks marginal opted to keep the conditions below advisory criteria. Some showers and thunderstorms should arrive late this afternoon and especially tonight, and some storms could produce locally gusty winds. Winds turn more northerly around 10 knots tonight behind the front.
Outlook...
Saturday through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. Fair weather.
Rip Currents...
Today, southerly winds 10 to 20 mph. The flow will be a bit more onshore for most of New Jersey as opposed to Delaware.
Additionally, guidance shows a 2 ft 9-10 second longer period swell from the SE to SSE developing by the afternoon. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for New Jersey beaches where the coastline is more perpendicular or oblique to the longer period swell. LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the Delaware beaches. Breaking waves will be around 2 to 3 feet.
Winds turn offshore for Saturday, with a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents everywhere.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ | 19 mi | 40 min | SSE 8 | 85°F | 29.95 | 73°F | ||
| NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA | 29 mi | 52 min | WSW 2.9G | 81°F | 74°F | 29.91 | ||
| ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ | 31 mi | 52 min | 68°F | 66°F | 29.88 | |||
| BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ | 31 mi | 94 min | W 5.1G | |||||
| 44091 | 34 mi | 44 min | 67°F | 3 ft | ||||
| BDSP1 | 37 mi | 52 min | 80°F | 75°F | 29.90 | |||
| PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA | 40 mi | 52 min | 87°F | 75°F | 29.88 |
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Wind History graph: MJX
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Marcus Hook, Pennsylvania, Delaware River, Pennsylvania
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Marcus Hook
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:18 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT First Quarter
Fri -- 01:39 AM EDT 1.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:28 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:07 AM EDT 5.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:20 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 02:10 PM EDT 0.86 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT 5.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:27 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:18 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT First Quarter
Fri -- 01:39 AM EDT 1.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:28 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:07 AM EDT 5.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:20 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 02:10 PM EDT 0.86 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT 5.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:27 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Marcus Hook, Pennsylvania, Delaware River, Pennsylvania, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.8 |
| 1 am |
| 1.3 |
| 2 am |
| 1.3 |
| 3 am |
| 2.1 |
| 4 am |
| 3.5 |
| 5 am |
| 4.4 |
| 6 am |
| 5.1 |
| 7 am |
| 5.4 |
| 8 am |
| 5.2 |
| 9 am |
| 4.4 |
| 10 am |
| 3.5 |
| 11 am |
| 2.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 5.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 5.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 4.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 4.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.3 |
Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:17 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT First Quarter
Fri -- 01:26 AM EDT 1.49 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:33 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:27 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:41 AM EDT -1.77 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:34 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:19 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 02:05 PM EDT 1.38 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:13 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:26 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 09:02 PM EDT -1.55 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:45 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:17 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT First Quarter
Fri -- 01:26 AM EDT 1.49 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:33 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:27 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:41 AM EDT -1.77 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:34 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:19 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 02:05 PM EDT 1.38 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:13 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:26 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 09:02 PM EDT -1.55 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:45 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 1.4 |
| 2 am |
| 1.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 0.3 |
| 5 am |
| -0.3 |
| 6 am |
| -0.8 |
| 7 am |
| -1.3 |
| 8 am |
| -1.7 |
| 9 am |
| -1.7 |
| 10 am |
| -1.3 |
| 11 am |
| -0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 9 pm |
| -1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.6 |
Philadelphia, PA,
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