Sunrise 5:13 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 2:21 AM   Moonset 2:57 PM

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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 305 Pm Cdt Sat Jun 1 2024
Through early evening - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering east late in the afternoon. Showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tonight - East wind 5 to 10 knots backing north early in the morning. Chance of showers in the evening, then slight chance of showers late in the evening. Patchy fog in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Sunday - North wind 5 to 10 knots veering northeast late in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves around 1 foot. Sunday night - East wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast late in the evening, then rising to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves nearly calm. Monday - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.

LMZ600
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FXUS63 KMKX 012124 CCA AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 424 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing rain showers will push east of the region through early evening.

- Areas of fog will develop across the area tonight. Some dense fog is possible.

- An active, summer-like pattern prevails through early week, with warm/muggy conditions and multiple rounds of showers and storms expected.

- Northwest winds bring cooler and drier air to southern Wisconsin through the second half of the upcoming week.

SHORT TERM
Issued 410 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Tonight through Sunday night:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: A busy pattern prevails early this afternoon across the Upper Midwest. Apparent in satellite imagery and objective analyses from the RAP, a shortwave trough continues to advance east into the Ohio Valley. A combination of DPVA tied to the feature, 700 mb WAA, and low level moisture fetch from the Gulf of Mexico have supported steady rain showers through the majority of today, with a number of stations along/west of I-39 reporting between 0.50-1.00"+ of rainfall as of 3:30 PM. Said rainfall will shift east of the area with its related forcing this evening, giving way to dry conditions through Sunday. Still under the influence of high pressure currently centered over the mid-Atlantic states, light to calm surface winds will prevail through the overnight hours tonight. Said winds will combine with a moist boundary layer to support areas of fog moving deeper into the overnight hours, with some dense fog possible. A shortwave trough will eject into the Northern Plains on Sunday afternoon, kicking off several clusters of convection to our west during the afternoon hours. Said storms will move into the Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday night, approaching the Wisconsin River Valley in a decaying state nearing sunrise Monday morning & the conclusion of the short term period.

Tonight: Expect areas of fog to develop across the region after sunset. Dense fog is possible, particularly in locations experiencing partial clearing & affiliated surface cooling.
Uncertainty regarding the placement & coverage of dense fog has precluded the issuance of any Dense Fog Advisories in the afternoon update, though trends will be monitored closely through the evening and overnight hours. Should an organized & persistent dense fog threat materialize, Dense Fog Advisories may become necessary. Be sure to slow down, use low beam headlights, and allow for extra following distance if encountering areas of dense fog on area roads tonight.

Sunday Night: Convection developing over the Northern Plains Sunday afternoon will approach Wisconsin River zones during the predawn hours. Expect that said convection will be well into its decaying phase as it draws near. Have maintained PoPs primarily along/west of I-39 between 1 AM and 7 AM Monday morning given this potential.

Quigley

LONG TERM
Issued 410 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Monday through Saturday:

Synopsis: An MCV tied to Sunday night's convection will cross southern Wisconsin during the day on Monday, with some potential for shower/storm redevelopment existing along & ahead of the feature from late morning through the afternoon. A more organized upper trough will eject into Northern Plains on Tuesday, encouraging surface cyclogenesis along the international border. The surface flow will progress east during the evening and overnight hours, dragging a cold front across the state in the process. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along & ahead of the boundary, with considerable uncertainties regarding FROPA timing remaining as of this forecast package. Additional, wraparound shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible on Wednesday with the core of the upper trough passing across southern Wisconsin. Post-frontal, west-northwest surface winds will prevail through the second half of the week, allowing a cooler/drier Canadian air mass to become entrenched across the region.

Monday: What's left of the decaying Northern Plains convection will push in during the morning hours. How far east this activity holds together is uncertain, with a wide range of solutions apparent in the global & available mesoscale guidance suite. Should weakening occur quickly as implied in some solutions, additional shower & storm development would be possible along the leading edge of an affiliated MCV from late morning through the afternoon hours. Given the high amount of spread in model solutions/uncertainty regarding re-development of storms, it remains too early to offer additional details regarding strong/severe potential Monday afternoon.

Tuesday Afternoon Through Tuesday Night: The cold front affiliated with the upper disturbance ejecting into the Northern Plains is progged to cross the region during this portion of the period, supporting additional chances for showers and storms. Coverage of storms, as well as their strength, will depend on the timing of the cold frontal passage. Considerable FROPA timing differences remain in available guidance, with some solutions as much as 6-12 hours apart from one another on arrival time of the boundary. Trends will continue to be monitored, with additional forecast details being introduced as cold frontal arrival time becomes more clear.

Remainder Of Period: With the core of the upper trough over the state, additional wraparound showers and storms will be possible on Wednesday. Winds will turn northwest through the end of the week, allowing cooler and drier Canadian air to work into southern Wisconsin. Off & on rain chances will continue into next weekend.

Quigley

AVIATION
Issued 410 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

An area of RA/SHRA continues to move across the region this afternoon, resulting in a combination of VIS, CIG, and attendant categorical reductions at regional aerodromes. A combination of MVFR & IFR conditions have been reported, with near-term trends being accounted for in the 18Z & 21Z updates. Will continue to monitor conditions through early evening and make adjustments as necessary.
Expect CIG readings to decline once more this evening, followed by VIS values after midnight as FG forms across southern Wisconsin.
Thus continue to carry categorical reductions at all fields through the overnight hours. Expect gradual improvements following sunrise Sunday as surface temps begin to climb and winds increase.

Quigley

MARINE
Issued 410 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

An area of rain showers will continue over the open waters through the rest of this afternoon and the first half of this evening.
Thunder chances have diminished across the majority of the lake, though an isolated thunderstorm is still possible over far southern zones. Rain will conclude near or just after midnight. Areas of fog are expected to develop during the second half of the overnight, with pockets of dense fog possible over southern portions of the lake. Will continue to monitor visibility trends through this evening/tonight and introduce dense fog advisories if necessary.
Winds will remain light and variable through Sunday as a 1020 mb high pressure lingers off the mid-Atlantic coast. Winds will turn out of the south Sunday night into Monday as a 1000 mb low pressure tracks from the northern Great Plains into Canada. Southerly winds will continue through Tuesday night as a second area of 992 mb low pressure forms over central Canada. A cold front will cross the open waters on Wednesday, resulting in a west-northwest wind shift through the second half of the upcoming week. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are forecast from Monday through Wednesday.

Quigley

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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