Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 9:20 PM Moonrise 2:15 AM   Moonset 2:51 PM

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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 405 Am Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Early this morning - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot. Today - South winds 10 to 15 knots veering north late in the day. A slight chance of rain until midday, then rain in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots backing northeast toward daybreak. Rain likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - North winds around 10 knots backing northwest. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots veering southeast after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot. Wednesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 010719 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 319 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and slight chance thunderstorm this afternoon-tonight

- Lingering humidity and cloud patches on Sunday

- Medium/High Confidence in evolution of upper troughing next week

DISCUSSION
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

- Rain and slight chance thunderstorm this afternoon-tonight

Midlevel trough and surface low over Missouri will move into Illinois today. Ahead of it, dry air will be in place through early afternoon in Michigan with dew points at or below 50. High and mid altitude clouds will thicken as precipitation nudges closer, eventually moistening the low levels and cooling off temperatures once rain reaches the surface this afternoon-evening.

HRRR and global model ensembles have come into much better alignment compared to 24 hours ago regarding rain chances, and now the scenario for little to no rain seems to be remote, at least for areas south of US-10. The arrival of rain is likely in West Michigan during mid-late afternoon (3-5 pm or so) and near US-127 during the evening (8-9 pm). Rain should move out late in the night or early in the morning.

Forecast soundings during the middle of the event show moisture and lift through much of the troposphere. Lapse rates in the low-mid levels that are neutrally buoyant and possibly slightly unstable for moist parcels may also support a period of more efficient rainfall production in some spots. The chance of lightning is slight but not zero. Broadly, 0.25 to 0.75 inch rain totals are most favored but there could be embedded spots or small swaths of 1 to 1.5 inch totals, per ensemble guidance.

- Lingering humidity and cloud patches on Sunday

Moisture in the low levels will linger on Sunday as the trough departs, and there may be drizzle early in the day. Temperatures should warm back up to seasonable levels but dew points near 60 will make it feel a little more sticky. The HRRR is less enthusiastic about ridging and warming in the midlevels, so it does touch off some afternoon showers south/east of Grand Rapids. Will go with a 10 percent chance of measurable rainfall.

- Medium/High Confidence in evolution of upper troughing next week

Ensemble spread is lower than usual and good run to run consistency is indicating higher confidence in the details for sensible weather next week.

There continues to be a signal for rain Monday and Tuesday as a shortwave trough approaches and minors out...then a stronger signal on Wednesday as a well-defined shortwave cuts off as it approaches from the Northern Plains. This low figures in the evolution of persistent troughing across the Great Lakes by the end of the week with lower 500 mb heights and low level northwest flow indicating cooler than normal temperatures into next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR conditions through Saturday morning then MVFR conditions overspread Lower Michigan from the south during the afternoon.
Conditions will lower to IFR across southern Lower Michigan on Saturday evening as rain becomes more steady. Winds will be light and variable tonight then generally south and southeast less than 10 knots on Saturday.

MARINE
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Fairly light winds and 1-2 foot waves continue through the weekend.
Patches of fog may develop over the lake Saturday night into Sunday morning, in the wake of the rain that will arrive this afternoon. A moderate swim risk is possible near/north of Whitehall on Monday due to waves building amid a south breeze.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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