Sunrise 5:22 AM   Sunset 9:03 PM Moonrise 12:43 PM   Moonset 12:38 AM

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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening - .
Rest of today - SW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog and a chance of showers in the morning, then areas of dense fog in the afternoon. Tonight - N wind to 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Wed - N wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Wed night - NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves W 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - SE wind 5 kt, veering to W in the afternoon. Wind waves se 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the W at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Thu night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Fri - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 3 ft. Sat - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.

PZZ200 144 Pm Pdt Fri Jun 14 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - A series of systems will move across the waters through Saturday. This will result in onshore flow with sub 10 ft seas through the weekend. The next impactful system looks to be expected towards the latter part of next week which could result in marginal small craft winds.

FXUS66 KPQR 142216 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 316 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
Cooler over the weekend as a weak cold front pushes inland from the northeast Pacific. Will see rainfall and a slight chance (20%) for thunderstorms along the northern portions of the forecast area. Coolest temperatures will fall on Sunday before a trend towards a warmer and drier pattern comes mid next week.

SHORT TERM
Now through Sunday Night...Minimal change in the forecast as the overall pattern remains on track. The low pressure system and associated front spin just offshore with rain falling along the north Oregon and south Washington coasts.
This rain will intensify through the evening, but will be more showery in nature so there will be periods without rain. High resolution models are quite "bubbly" with the simulated reflectivity which can be connected to very sporadic yet moderate rainfall at times. Chances for thunder have remained the same (around 20%), but the overall areal coverage is greater. The HRRR is showing around a 20-30% chance of thunder, especially in southern Washington. However, given the overall strength of this system, even if chances are higher, the number of strikes remains limited. Have decided to lower chances to around 20% to account for this. Areas with the higher probabilities are along the northern coast and northern Coast Range.

Rain will be more widespread, as will temperature drops tonight through Sunday. Rain accumulation does not appear impressive, but, considering it will be showery, there may be periods of heavier rain. Precipitable water amounts are not robust enough for any kind of concerns...moreso washing your car level rain.

Models have come into better agreement on Sunday with a more fine detailed forecast. There may be some lingering instability which can be observed in the vorticity advection and the alignment of the jet to the area. However, the trough is flattening, and the jet is pushing further south inching us out of the left exit region (more convective portion of the jet), and into more "neutral" territory. Sunday will be dominated by cooler air and a few lingering showers. -Muessle


LONG TERM
Monday through Friday...The overall synoptic pattern is comprised of a broad trough transitioning into a ridge. Ensemble clusters are in very good agreement, especially given the length of time into the future. Overall will see a warmer and drier pattern starting Tuesday. Seasonable temperatures in store with light winds, and no precipitation.
-Muessle



AVIATION
VFR conditions continue for most locations across the airspace. However, a series of fronts are expected to impact the region. The first front will be relatively weak and will slowly move eastward across the airspace today. Expect MVFR conditions for KAST starting around 22Z Friday and those MVFR conditions slowly spreading southward and will likely reach KONP around 00Z Saturday. There will also be a 15%-25% probability for IFR conditions to develop starting between 22Z Friday and 00Z Saturday along the coast. The coast is expected to maintain the MVFR/IFR conditions through at least 18Z Saturday as the second stronger front will start to move across the airspace around 06Z Saturday.
These fronts will bring showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms (25% probability) being added for KAST starting around 06Z Saturday, then spreading southward and reaching KONP around 12Z Saturday.

The first front reaches northern, inland locations around 00Z Saturday and will result in a mixture of low-end VFR/high-end MVFR conditions with cigs likely oscillating between FL030 and FL040 for areas north of KMMV/KUAO along with light showers. Areas south will likely maintain VFR conditions with FL040 or greater with no precipitation expected. The second, stronger system will impact inland locations starting around 09Z-12Z Saturday and will likely maintain the low-end VFR/high-end MVFR mixture along with widespread showers. This second front will also result in a slight chance of thunderstorms (25% probability) for areas north of KCVO starting around 12Z-15Z Saturday.

Any thunderstorms will have the potential to produce small hail along with gusty and erratic winds.

Southerly winds across the airspace will become more westerly after the first frontal passage.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR under clear skies will slowly transition to a mixture of low-end VFR/high-end MVFR conditions, with cigs likely oscillating between FL030 and FL040 as a series of fronts move eastward through 18Z Saturday. Look for this transition to start around 00Z Saturday as the first, weaker front crosses the terminal. This first front will also bring light showers. Second, stronger front will maintain oscillating flight levels and also result in a slight chance of thunderstorms (25% probability)
starting around 12Z Saturday. -42

MARINE
Relatively benign conditions through the weekend and into the start of the upcoming week. Seas around 5 to 7 ft at 9 to 11 seconds. A weak front will bring southerly winds through the evening, before a stronger front will cause winds to become more westerly tonight/early Saturday morning. Late Sunday/early Monday strong northwesterly winds will return and will likely bring marginal Small Craft Winds to all waters. There is still some uncertainty in the timing and strength of the Monday system.
-42



PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.

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