Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 3:02 AM   Moonset 5:40 PM

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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Sat - W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Sun - N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.Sun night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 405 Pm Edt Tue Jun 4 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A backdoor front will move into the area today and stall. The weak front will lift back north early Wednesday as strong cold front approaches from the west. The front will move through Friday and Friday night, with slightly cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend.

FXUS62 KMHX 042037 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 437 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
A backdoor front will move into the area today and stall. The weak front will lift back north early Wednesday as strong cold front approaches from the west. The front will move through Friday and Friday night, with slightly cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 4 PM Tuesday...Very isolated showers are ongoing across the CWA as the seabreeze makes its way inland and the backdoor cold front remains stalled just to our north. The coastal plain will have the highest PoPs for the next few hours with chances decreasing after sunset. The severe threat is low but non-zero given the weak forcing and lack of shear, but MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg could still support some stronger storms with heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Slight chance PoPs linger through the overnight period for areas north of HWY 70, the OBX, and offshore waters, but coverage will be isolated. Lows won't be too low tonight with temps only dropping to around 70.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
As of 4 PM Tuesday... The stalled boundary will lift north and high pressure will strengthen offshore. Guidance continues to trend drier, so PoPs have been cut back once again. Like today, any shower or thunderstorm development will be isolated to widely scattered with a low but non-zero severe threat. MLCAPE will be marginal (500-1000 J/kg) but winds will respond to the incoming upper-level trough and create slightly better shear today (20-25 kt). Temps will be toasty with highs around 90 across the coastal plain and mid-80s along the OBX.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 235 AM Tue...Unsettled conditions expected through Thursday with near seasonable temps. High pressure will strengthen offshore through late week with a cold front approaching from the west. A cold front will move through Friday into Fri night, bringing drier conditions late week into the weekend. Another frontal system may impact the area early next week.

Thursday...Greatest coverage still looks like Thursday afternoon and evening. Weak shear will limit the overall svr threat, though an isolated strong storm with gusty winds, small hail and heavy rain will be possible each day. An increase in heat and humidity is also likely as highs climb into the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon, and it will feel like 95-100 degrees for most of the area when factoring in the humidity.

Friday through Monday...Cold front looks to move through Friday into Friday night. Iso showers/storm possible Fri, but most areas will remain dry. 00z guidance shows upper troughing lingering along the east coast through the weekend, depicting drier and slightly cooler conditions across eastern NC. More comfortable airmass expected this weekend with dewpoints falling into the 50s and 60s and high temps in the 80s. Still a good amount of uncertainty early next week, with the potential for another frontal system to impact the area. Will keep sc to chance pops for now.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tue night/...
As of 4 PM Tuesday...A rinse and repeat forecast is on tap.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms stick around this afternoon with chances decreasing after sunset.
Tomorrow will be more of the same with diurnal convection in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 235 AM Tue...Unsettled conditions expected this week, with best chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday.
This could bring some periods of sub-VFR conditions to the terminals. Sub-VFR cigs possible early Thu morning. A cold front will move through Fri and Fri night.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions will persist through much of Wednesday. SSE 5-10 kt north of Cape Hatteras and SW 10-15 kt winds south of Cape Hatteras become SW around 10 kt tonight. Tomorrow afternoon, SW winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts nearing 25 kt, mainly across the Pamlico Sound and northern waters. The wind forecast has trended up and a SCA may be needed for these waters. Waves will be 2-3 ft through the period.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 235 AM Tue...Light to moderate SSW winds Wed 5-15 kt will increase to 15-20 kt late Wed afternoon and Wednesday night, becoming SW 15-25 kt Thursday. SCA conditions possible Wednesday night and Thursday. The cold front will move through Friday and Friday night, with gradient relaxing and winds becoming WSW 10-15 kt. Light to moderate NNW-WNW winds Sat 5-15 kt. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through Wednesday, building to 3-6 ft Thursday, then gradually subsiding to 2-4 ft Fri and Sat.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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