Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 12:38 PM   Moonset 12:29 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 251 Pm Pdt Fri Jun 14 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late Saturday night - .
This afternoon - W wind 15 to 20 kt, rising to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt late. Seas 7 to 9 ft. Wave detail: W 5 ft at 7 seconds, W 7 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 14 seconds. Tonight - NW wind 20 to 25 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7 to 9 ft. Wave detail: nw 5 ft at 7 seconds, W 7 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 14 seconds. Sat - NW wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Wave detail: W 6 ft at 9 seconds and sw 2 ft at 17 seconds. Sat night - NW wind 25 to 30 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. Wave detail: W 7 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 19 seconds. Sun - NW wind 15 to 20 kt, rising to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Wave detail: W 7 ft at 10 seconds. Sun night - NW wind 25 to 30 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Wave detail: W 8 ft at 9 seconds. Mon - NW wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: nw 2 ft at 6 seconds, W 5 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Mon night - NW wind 15 to 20 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 8 to 10 ft. Wave detail: nw 4 ft at 6 seconds and nw 8 ft at 9 seconds. Tue - NW wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Wave detail: W 6 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. Tue night - NW wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: nw 2 ft at 5 seconds and W 5 ft at 9 seconds.
locally lower winds and seas across sheltered portions of the bay.

PZZ500 251 Pm Pdt Fri Jun 14 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
strong north and northwest winds with gale force gusts last through much of the weekend. Significant wave heights up to around 12 to 15 feet in the outer waters and 10 to 14 feet in the inner waters continue into the weekend. Hazardous conditions continue into the next work week as winds remain strong and seas remain elevated. Seas start to diminish in the middle part of the week.

FXUS66 KMTR 142325 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 425 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

New AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 107 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Dry and windy with elevated fire concerns into early next week.
Seasonal temps and quiet weather thereafter. Potential warming trend for late next week.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 107 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Clear across the area this afternoon as N-S gradients strengthen further with the passing of a shortwave trough this evening. Today will likely be the warmest day until late next week by a few degrees for inland locations. Expecting winds to increase initially overnight tonight in coastal gaps and high elevation areas. Currently seeing this as winds at major sites showing mostly a northerly component and increasing in magnitude as of the last few hours. The ridge ultimately gets flattened by a deeper upper level trough that will move into the West Coast. This will keep temps down over the next several days as well as further strengthen the N-S gradients that will promote windy conditions into early next week.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 107 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The most noteworthy period of wind and elevated fire weather conditions looks like Sunday into early Monday morning when the N-S gradient is expected to increase to around -8.5mb (SFO-ACV).
For context, this gradient peaked at -5.8 this afternoon, and -4.8 Thursday afternoon. This type of setup will support wind gusts of 35-45 mph, with some areas near the coast and higher terrain seeing gusts up to 50 mph. Confidence remains high in this scenario. Have decided to forgo any fire weather highlights given the critical wind and RH values aren't quite there. Refer to the Fire Weather section for more.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Tuesday and beyond: Winds finally ease as the N-S begins to relax mitigating Marine and Fire Weather concerns. Interesting evolution of the longwave pattern middle of next week. While the pattern looks "troughy" it does show rising 500 mb heights over CA. More importantly, the warming of 850 mb temperatures. This begins to show up by Wednesday and then continue through next week. Rising 500 mb heights and warming 850 mb temperatures will kick off a warming and trend. Latest long range outlook from WPC highlights portions of the Central Valley and SoCal for Excessive Heat. Cluster analysis and NBM guidance supports this highlighting from WPC. Official forecast late next weekend has triple heat impacting interior portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Will need to monitor over the coming days.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 425 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions throughout the region, generally through the TAF period. Model output has some probability of stratus development tonight at the immediate coast, through the Golden Gate, and near MRY, but confidence is low and strong winds aloft may keep the skies clear through the nighttime. Strong northwest winds continue through the evening hours, with gusts up to 20-30 knots at the terminals.
LLWS concerns develop along the coast this evening as strong winds aloft decouple from the surface layer, though as of now, only STS has strong enough shear to note in the TAFs. Strong northwest winds expected to resume Saturday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period. Strong west-northwest winds are strengthening through the afternoon and will continue into the evening. Current forecast has winds approaching, but not quite reaching, 35 knots. Considered putting 35 knot gusts in the TAF, but confidence was too low. Will continue to monitor the evolution of winds through the afternoon and amend if necessary. Best chances for wind gusts exceeding 35 knots are between 02-05Z. Winds will taper off to around 10-15 knots overnight, with marginal LLWS concerns.
Strong gusts resume Saturday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the rest of the day. Model output shows some probability of IFR ceilings at MRY overnight, but confidence is low (around a 30-40% probability) with winds aloft remaining strong. Breezy northwest winds will diminish overnight before resuming Saturday afternoon.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 425 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Strong north and northwest winds with gale force gusts last through much of the weekend. Significant wave heights up to around 12 to 15 feet in the outer waters and 10 to 14 feet in the inner waters continue into the weekend. Hazardous conditions continue into the next work week as winds remain strong and seas remain elevated. Seas start to diminish in the middle part of the week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 107 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Through The Weekend

*Less impactful marine layer *Increasing northerly winds, especially higher terrain *Lowering relative humidity values day and night

No major changes from previous.

By tonight into early Saturday, winds become more northerly over the higher terrain of the N and E Bay with gusts 25-35 mph. The developing offshore flow will usher in moderate to locally poor humidity recoveries above 1,000 feet. The drier airmass will ultimately spread across the entire district Saturday afternoon with 15-30% RH minimums across the interior. A slight uptick in RH recoveries on Saturday night as the marine layer tries to re- establish itself below 1,000 feet. Above 1,000 feet will feature another night with moderate to locally poor humidity recoveries Saturday night into Sunday. Despite some strong winds and lowering humidity onshore flow never completely goes aways. It would definitely be on the unusual side to issue a Red Flag Warning in June with some hint of a marine layer/onshore flow. Therefore, will keep a headline in place and continue to message elevated fire weather concerns. It should be noted, that does not mean grass fires will not be in the equation over the weekend. Fine fuels like grass will support fires as seen by recent fire trends.
However, larger fires with thicker fuels (non-grass) will be less likely. 100 and 1000 fuels are still holding onto some winter moisture. A great way to visually see this is watching ERC trends.
The ERC forecast through the weekend does show a trend toward seasonal levels, but not into the widespread critical range.

Regardless, individuals with outdoor activities planned this weekend should be fire weather aware. Be mindful and don't be "that spark".

MM/DB

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Saturday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0- 10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Monterey
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:02 AM PDT     2.48 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:29 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:49 AM PDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:48 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:23 AM PDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:38 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:32 PM PDT     4.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:27 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Monterey, Monterey Harbor, California, Tide feet

Point Pinos
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:29 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:55 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:22 AM PDT     0.27 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:48 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:02 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:50 AM PDT     -0.47 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:38 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:44 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:51 PM PDT     0.46 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:00 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:27 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:45 PM PDT     -0.48 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Pinos, California Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

San Francisco Bay Area, CA,