Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Missoula, MT
June 1, 2024 10:27 PM MDT (04:27 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:42 AM Sunset 9:25 PM Moonrise 2:07 AM Moonset 2:49 PM |
FXUS65 KMSO 011954 AFDMSO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 154 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024
...HEAVY RAIN STARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL STREAM FLOOD RISK IN CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH MONDAY...
DISCUSSION
A tropical cyclone in the west Pacific last week has transitioned into the mid-latitudes and injected quite a lot of moisture into the jet stream, and an elongated jet stream across the Pacific Ocean is bringing it to our region. It will begin impacting our region tomorrow (Sunday) night. It will bring widespread rain across the whole region, but ensembles have been consistent in targeting central Idaho with the heaviest rain. The terrain in that region will combine with the wind direction, extremely moist air, and an approaching trough to produce heavy rain. There is about a 20 percent chance for some mountain locations to pick up 2" or more of rain in about 30 hours, and the chances of picking up over an inch in that time is over 80 percent for most of the higher elevations of Clearwater and Idaho counties in central Idaho.
With such heavy rain, flooding is always a concern. Currently, the mainstem rivers have a lot of capacity to hold more water, so mainstem river flooding isn't a concern for most areas. The main exception is the Clearwater River at Stites, which has about a 20 percent chance of reaching flood stage. Smaller streams and creeks however are much more vulnerable to the heavy rain, and we are expecting to see a lot of problems with ponding of water, high flows in culverts, and small stream flooding. We've issued a flood advisory for these impacts.
Additionally, short-term high resolution models are showing the potential for embedded thunderstorms with higher precipitation rates. These are a concern because the ground will already be saturated and localized, persistent heavy rain from these storms could cause flash floods and debris flows. These events tend to be very localized.
Beyond the atmospheric river, a ridge builds over the region by mid-week with nearly 100 percent agreement by the ensembles.
Temperatures will warm to above average by Wednesday and into the upper 80s and low 90s by Thursday and Friday.
AVIATION
A shortwave trough moving through the region today and this evening is causing increased cloud coverage and some showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms this evening will be typical for this time of year with the main impact being lightning and wind gusts 30-40 mph. Tomorrow night an atmospheric river will arrive in the region and cause low ceilings and reduced visibility through Tuesday morning.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT
ID
Flood Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for Northern Clearwater Mountains...Orofino/Grangeville Region...Southern Clearwater Mountains.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 154 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024
...HEAVY RAIN STARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL STREAM FLOOD RISK IN CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH MONDAY...
DISCUSSION
A tropical cyclone in the west Pacific last week has transitioned into the mid-latitudes and injected quite a lot of moisture into the jet stream, and an elongated jet stream across the Pacific Ocean is bringing it to our region. It will begin impacting our region tomorrow (Sunday) night. It will bring widespread rain across the whole region, but ensembles have been consistent in targeting central Idaho with the heaviest rain. The terrain in that region will combine with the wind direction, extremely moist air, and an approaching trough to produce heavy rain. There is about a 20 percent chance for some mountain locations to pick up 2" or more of rain in about 30 hours, and the chances of picking up over an inch in that time is over 80 percent for most of the higher elevations of Clearwater and Idaho counties in central Idaho.
With such heavy rain, flooding is always a concern. Currently, the mainstem rivers have a lot of capacity to hold more water, so mainstem river flooding isn't a concern for most areas. The main exception is the Clearwater River at Stites, which has about a 20 percent chance of reaching flood stage. Smaller streams and creeks however are much more vulnerable to the heavy rain, and we are expecting to see a lot of problems with ponding of water, high flows in culverts, and small stream flooding. We've issued a flood advisory for these impacts.
Additionally, short-term high resolution models are showing the potential for embedded thunderstorms with higher precipitation rates. These are a concern because the ground will already be saturated and localized, persistent heavy rain from these storms could cause flash floods and debris flows. These events tend to be very localized.
Beyond the atmospheric river, a ridge builds over the region by mid-week with nearly 100 percent agreement by the ensembles.
Temperatures will warm to above average by Wednesday and into the upper 80s and low 90s by Thursday and Friday.
AVIATION
A shortwave trough moving through the region today and this evening is causing increased cloud coverage and some showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms this evening will be typical for this time of year with the main impact being lightning and wind gusts 30-40 mph. Tomorrow night an atmospheric river will arrive in the region and cause low ceilings and reduced visibility through Tuesday morning.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT
ID
Flood Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for Northern Clearwater Mountains...Orofino/Grangeville Region...Southern Clearwater Mountains.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMSO MISSOULA INTL,MT | 5 sm | 34 min | WNW 03 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 57°F | 43°F | 59% | 29.84 |
Missoula, MT,
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