Sunrise 5:24 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 1:29 AM   Moonset 2:02 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 411 Am Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Today - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late. Waves 1 ft or less. Wave detail: nw 1 ft at 2 seconds.Tonight - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Wave detail: W 1 ft at 2 seconds. Sun - SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Mon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wed - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wed night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 411 Am Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure centered over the mid atlantic today shifts offshore Sunday. A disturbance approaches late Sunday and moves through into early Monday. High pressure then builds across the region from southeast canada through Tuesday night. The high moves out in to the atlantic for the latter half of the week.

FXUS61 KBGM 010820 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 420 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure and dry conditions will continue through tonight.
Spotty showers are possible Sunday, mainly west of I-81. Otherwise, warmer and mostly quiet conditions are expected through the first half of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
230 AM Update...

High pressure will remain over the region today. Skies will be mostly sunny with passing high clouds overhead. Temperatures will climb into the mid 70s to low 80s. High clouds will move in overnight as cloud cover gradually increases from the west.
Conditions remain quiet through the overnight hours with temperatures only falling into the 50s.

A weak shortwave trough moves into the region Sunday as the ridge of high pressure drifts eastward. This system will have to overcome the drier air that will linger through at least the morning hours.
Showers that can develop will likely be spotty and mostly limited to locations west of I-81. There does remain some uncertainty though as most model guidance has trended drier with the GFS and some of the CAMs being the exceptions. An isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out as some guidance show weak surface-based instability (200- 400 J/kg) and shear (20 kts). Cloud cover will factor into how unstable we get. Thunderstorm chances were based on the NAM and GFS, so the northern portions of the Finger Lakes region would have the best chance of seeing a thunderstorm. Southerly flow will help temperatures reach the 70s and low 80s once again.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

415 AM Update

A weak wave of low pressure will be passing over the area Sunday night into early Monday morning. There remain some differences in the model guidance as far as QPF amounts and areal extent of the rain shower activity. Overall, the highest PoPs (chance 30-50%) were placed over the NY Southern Tier and NE PA. It will be seasonably mild with lows in the 50s. The decaying shortwave trough remains over the eastern portion of the area on Monday, while 500mb height rises begin as an upper level ridge approaches from the central Great Lakes by Monday afternoon.
Model guidance is showing some modest instability and mid level moisture remaining over the area Monday afternoon...therefore cannot rule out a stray, pop up shower or t'storm....mainly over the favored terrain locations where orographic lift will be maximized. Otherwise, the forecast is trending partly sunny and warm with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Aforementioned upper level ridge is progged to settle overhead Monday night, Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will keep the atmosphere well capped and bring a period of dry, warm weather to the area. Dew points and therefore humidity levels remain on the low side (sfc dew points in the mid-50s to around 60 Tuesday afternoon). Expected overnight lows in the mid-50s to low 60s both nights, with well above average readings Tuesday afternoon...reaching the low to mid-80s...with some upper 80s in the urban valley locations expected. This is around 10, to as much as 15 degrees above average for early June. Did go a few degrees higher than the NBM guidance, expected plenty of sunshine and the above mentioned dry air mass to boost daytime highs.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

415 AM Update

This period starts off with some flatter upper level ridging still over the region on Wednesday. The return flow turns south-southeasterly off the Atlantic as the surface high slides east of Long Island. This may also bring in a marine layer of clouds and early morning fog/stratus to parts of the area. This marine modified air mass also has the capabilities to eliminate atmospheric instability. However, the exact details of where/when the potential marine layer will set up remain uncertain this far out in time. As the next upper level low/trough slowly approaches from the Great Lakes region, there will be a slight chance to chance for afternoon showers and/or t'storm to develop; especially for western and southern portions of the forecast area. High temperatures are a touch lower than Tuesday, but still in the mid-70s to lower 80s.

The weather pattern then turns much more active for Thursday, Friday and heading into the first part of next weekend. A broad, expansive upper level low and trough spin slowly eastward over the region during this timeframe. The first front arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday, likely bringing showers and a few thunderstorms to the area. Overall, instability is not looking to high at this extended timeframe...however wind shear and low level moisture levels look to increase markedly. The upper level low continues to spin over, or just to the north Friday into next Saturday. This will keep increasing clouds and chances for showers in the forecast. Temperatures will see a cooling trend back into the upper 60s and 70s for highs Thursday through Saturday; with overnight lows mainly in the 50s.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions will persist through the period at all terminals with high pressure in place.

Outlook...

Saturday Night...Quiet pattern with mainly VFR conditions.

Sunday through Sunday Night...Chance of a shower/storm and associated restrictions.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; Isolated rain showers.

Wednesday...Low chance of shower/storm and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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Newburgh
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Sat -- 02:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
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Sat -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
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Sat -- 02:44 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
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West Point
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Sat -- 02:02 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:21 AM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:21 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:03 PM EDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
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West Point, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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