Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI
June 16, 2024 6:27 PM EDT (22:27 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:52 AM Sunset 9:12 PM Moonrise 2:58 PM Moonset 1:28 AM |
LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0019.000000t0000z-240613t2315z/ 636 Pm Edt Thu Jun 13 2024
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . St. Clair river - .
the Thunderstorm has moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters.
&&
lat - .lon 4316 8234 4301 8241 4299 8243 4298 8242 4297 8242 4297 8248 4301 8247 4307 8250 4310 8250 4317 8243 4319 8233 time - .mot - .loc 2236z 259deg 43kt 4305 8242
the affected areas were - . St. Clair river - .
the Thunderstorm has moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters.
&&
lat - .lon 4316 8234 4301 8241 4299 8243 4298 8242 4297 8242 4297 8248 4301 8247 4307 8250 4310 8250 4317 8243 4319 8233 time - .mot - .loc 2236z 259deg 43kt 4305 8242
LCZ400
No data
No data
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 161850 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 250 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- An excessive heat watch remains in effect Monday afternoon through Friday evening. Several days of highs in the 90s are expected this week, with afternoon heat indices of 95 to 100.
- Nighttime lows will only drop into the 70s over most of the area this week.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight/Monday and Tuesday afternoon will bring potential of localized torrential rainfall.
DISCUSSION
No changes to excessive heat watch issued last night, but this certainly looks like just heat advisory criteria for Monday/Tuesday.
Considerable uncertainty with just how hot we get and if dew pts can reach and exceed 70 degrees for any sustained period to support excessive heat warning criteria, although the cumulative days/effect of heat indices near 100 degrees still may be enough for future shifts to possibly issue a a excessive heat warning for urban areas vs heat advisory.
Another uncertainty of the forecast is with the showers and thunderstorm chances this evening through Tuesday, as there is a lot of upper level PV filaments riding up through the Mississippi River Valley, which will be tracking through southeast Michigan, as the upper level ridge builds over the northern Appalachians early next week.
Upward revisions for pops have been made for tonight and Monday, as cams are in pretty good agreement with the upper level disturbance/MCV which came out of the Kansas City area slowly tracking through southern Lower Michigan tonight, with the instability/cape gradient making inroads as moisture advection ramps up. Mid level lapse rates start out steep, 7.5 C/KM, but would then weaken as the batch of showers and thunderstorms and convective latent heat release tracks through southeast Michigan. Still, will carry just high chance pops due to exact location/coverage uncertainty, with torrential rainfall and even hail possible (MUcapes increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg), with another limited convective flare-up possible Monday afternoon as well.
Trajectories then show a shortwave coming out of the eastern Gulf of Mexico on track to move into southeast Michigan late Tuesday. With a respectable 0-6KM bulk shear of 30+ knots tracking into/near western Lake Erie, which, coupled with the potential moderate instability/cape would be supportive of strong to isolated marginally severe storms, if activity is able to initiate. Low level convergence near the Land/Marine interface the likely locations within the backdrop of the low level southwest flow. Slow movement of storms/potential back building with PW values aoa 1.75 inches will draw concern for urban flooding, but at least airmass is not true tropical, with 700 mb dew pts only progged to be near 3 C. With said ingredients, Tuesday afternoon looks to be another good shot for scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms (25-50%). As usual with these unstable air-masses, once the first cell goes, an outflow boundary is then usually sufficient to get additional activity to fire up during the peak heating of the day.
Bottom-line, the prospects for convection to start the work week is decent, which should have some impact on max temperatures, likely capping maxes in the low to mid 90s.
500 mb heights building for Wednesday-Thursday as the upper level ridge center over southern New England retrogrades to the west makes for a higher confidence forecast in temperatures rising solidly into the 90s. However, even then, still some convective schemes getting triggered in this generally uncapped environment as the jet stream/strong westerlies hang around the northern Great Lakes. So, certainly a lot of more weather elements to focus in on over the coming days than just the heat.
MARINE
A warm and humid airmass will set up over the Great Lakes through early tomorrow morning and will last through the end of the week.
This will produce relatively stable near surface lake conditions.
The passage of a warm front will produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening for portions of Lake Huron and the Saginaw Bay. Some strong thunderstorm induced wind gusts aoa 30 knots and/or hail cannot be ruled out with today's late day activity, favored across northern Lake Huron. Wind direction will veer from the southeast to the southwest after the passage of the front. Additional isolated to scattered shower and storm chances will exist tomorrow morning over the Great Lakes as an upper-level disturbance moves over the region and again in the afternoon, with additional chances returning Tuesday.
HYDROLOGY
A moist and unstable airmass arriving tonight and continuing through Tuesday will bring the potential of a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The coverage is expected to remain mainly scattered, but locations which experience strong thunderstorms will have the potential for rainfall amounts to exceed 2 inches in a short period of time, leading to urban/low lying flooding. There is this low flooding potential late tonight into Monday, and then again Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, most locations remain dry or will be lucky to see a quick half an inch of rain.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 109 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024
AVIATION...
VFR conditions hold today into tonight within ridging with initial cluster of showers/thunderstorms over Lake Michigan bypassing the region to the north/northwest this evening (relatively close call for KMBS though). Will introduce prob30/tempo groups for early Mon morning thunderstorm as 12z model suite has latched on to solution which will bring small MCS/cluster of convection into the area. The mesoscale system bringing this activity is currently tracking thru SE IA/NE MO with active convection early this afternoon. A veering LLJ of 30+ knots will usher in much higher theta-e air overnight into Monday and this should allow for this system to fester all the way east into the area before dissipating by mid morning as LLJ forcing wanes during diurnal convection min.
For DTW/D21 Convection...A small cluster of thunderstorms will be possible early Monday morning (first guess 10z-13z). With a rapid increase in moisture during this period, localized downpours could be quite heavy within certain pockets of this cluster.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for thundestorms impacting the terminal ~10z-13z.
* Low for ceilings aob 5kft with convection Monday morning.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Friday evening for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 250 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- An excessive heat watch remains in effect Monday afternoon through Friday evening. Several days of highs in the 90s are expected this week, with afternoon heat indices of 95 to 100.
- Nighttime lows will only drop into the 70s over most of the area this week.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight/Monday and Tuesday afternoon will bring potential of localized torrential rainfall.
DISCUSSION
No changes to excessive heat watch issued last night, but this certainly looks like just heat advisory criteria for Monday/Tuesday.
Considerable uncertainty with just how hot we get and if dew pts can reach and exceed 70 degrees for any sustained period to support excessive heat warning criteria, although the cumulative days/effect of heat indices near 100 degrees still may be enough for future shifts to possibly issue a a excessive heat warning for urban areas vs heat advisory.
Another uncertainty of the forecast is with the showers and thunderstorm chances this evening through Tuesday, as there is a lot of upper level PV filaments riding up through the Mississippi River Valley, which will be tracking through southeast Michigan, as the upper level ridge builds over the northern Appalachians early next week.
Upward revisions for pops have been made for tonight and Monday, as cams are in pretty good agreement with the upper level disturbance/MCV which came out of the Kansas City area slowly tracking through southern Lower Michigan tonight, with the instability/cape gradient making inroads as moisture advection ramps up. Mid level lapse rates start out steep, 7.5 C/KM, but would then weaken as the batch of showers and thunderstorms and convective latent heat release tracks through southeast Michigan. Still, will carry just high chance pops due to exact location/coverage uncertainty, with torrential rainfall and even hail possible (MUcapes increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg), with another limited convective flare-up possible Monday afternoon as well.
Trajectories then show a shortwave coming out of the eastern Gulf of Mexico on track to move into southeast Michigan late Tuesday. With a respectable 0-6KM bulk shear of 30+ knots tracking into/near western Lake Erie, which, coupled with the potential moderate instability/cape would be supportive of strong to isolated marginally severe storms, if activity is able to initiate. Low level convergence near the Land/Marine interface the likely locations within the backdrop of the low level southwest flow. Slow movement of storms/potential back building with PW values aoa 1.75 inches will draw concern for urban flooding, but at least airmass is not true tropical, with 700 mb dew pts only progged to be near 3 C. With said ingredients, Tuesday afternoon looks to be another good shot for scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms (25-50%). As usual with these unstable air-masses, once the first cell goes, an outflow boundary is then usually sufficient to get additional activity to fire up during the peak heating of the day.
Bottom-line, the prospects for convection to start the work week is decent, which should have some impact on max temperatures, likely capping maxes in the low to mid 90s.
500 mb heights building for Wednesday-Thursday as the upper level ridge center over southern New England retrogrades to the west makes for a higher confidence forecast in temperatures rising solidly into the 90s. However, even then, still some convective schemes getting triggered in this generally uncapped environment as the jet stream/strong westerlies hang around the northern Great Lakes. So, certainly a lot of more weather elements to focus in on over the coming days than just the heat.
MARINE
A warm and humid airmass will set up over the Great Lakes through early tomorrow morning and will last through the end of the week.
This will produce relatively stable near surface lake conditions.
The passage of a warm front will produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening for portions of Lake Huron and the Saginaw Bay. Some strong thunderstorm induced wind gusts aoa 30 knots and/or hail cannot be ruled out with today's late day activity, favored across northern Lake Huron. Wind direction will veer from the southeast to the southwest after the passage of the front. Additional isolated to scattered shower and storm chances will exist tomorrow morning over the Great Lakes as an upper-level disturbance moves over the region and again in the afternoon, with additional chances returning Tuesday.
HYDROLOGY
A moist and unstable airmass arriving tonight and continuing through Tuesday will bring the potential of a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The coverage is expected to remain mainly scattered, but locations which experience strong thunderstorms will have the potential for rainfall amounts to exceed 2 inches in a short period of time, leading to urban/low lying flooding. There is this low flooding potential late tonight into Monday, and then again Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, most locations remain dry or will be lucky to see a quick half an inch of rain.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 109 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024
AVIATION...
VFR conditions hold today into tonight within ridging with initial cluster of showers/thunderstorms over Lake Michigan bypassing the region to the north/northwest this evening (relatively close call for KMBS though). Will introduce prob30/tempo groups for early Mon morning thunderstorm as 12z model suite has latched on to solution which will bring small MCS/cluster of convection into the area. The mesoscale system bringing this activity is currently tracking thru SE IA/NE MO with active convection early this afternoon. A veering LLJ of 30+ knots will usher in much higher theta-e air overnight into Monday and this should allow for this system to fester all the way east into the area before dissipating by mid morning as LLJ forcing wanes during diurnal convection min.
For DTW/D21 Convection...A small cluster of thunderstorms will be possible early Monday morning (first guess 10z-13z). With a rapid increase in moisture during this period, localized downpours could be quite heavy within certain pockets of this cluster.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for thundestorms impacting the terminal ~10z-13z.
* Low for ceilings aob 5kft with convection Monday morning.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Friday evening for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI | 11 mi | 27 min | SE 7G | 75°F | 29.97 | |||
| AGCM4 | 13 mi | 57 min | 78°F | 64°F | 29.96 | |||
| MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI | 38 mi | 57 min | 83°F | 29.94 | ||||
| FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI | 40 mi | 57 min | SSW 11G | 82°F | 29.94 | 43°F | ||
| PBWM4 | 40 mi | 57 min | 78°F | 29.94 | ||||
| 45209 | 49 mi | 37 min | SW 7.8G | 71°F | 63°F | 1 ft | 29.97 | 57°F |
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Detroit, MI,
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