Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 3:23 PM   Moonset 2:03 AM

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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- 418 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2024
.small craft advisory in effect - .
Today - Northeast to east winds near 15 knots, becoming east near 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tonight - East winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. NEarshore waters rough. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday and Tuesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Wednesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming rough. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.Wednesday night - Northeast to east winds near 20 knots, becoming east 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. NEarshore waters rough, becoming choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Thursday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Thursday night - East winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Friday - East to southeast winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. NEarshore waters becoming choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Friday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 418 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2024
Synopsis - Strong surface high pressure centered off the new england coast working in tandem with falling pressures over the yucatan peninsula and the bay of campeche is expected to result in moderate to fresh breezes today through mid week. An area of low pressure may develop mid week a few hundred miles north of the central bahamas towards mid week and move towards the north to central florida coastline. This may result in a brief slackening of breezes before high pressure takes control again resulting in freshening east to southeasterly breezes late week.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of june 12 - .
66 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 24 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 17 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 28 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 8 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 4 nm south of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 2 nm south of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KMFL 170647 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 247 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

As we move into the new week, the ridging and surface high to our north will expand and strengthen. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the southern FL Peninsula leading to breezy easterly winds in the region as we move into the day, Monday. Additionally, this will usher some drier air in the mid-levels which will bring a decrease in PWAT values (~1.2-1.6). There is potential for isolated to scattered showers (20%) across the eastern coast late this morning, before movement inland and to the Gulf as the easterly winds strengthen throughout the day. The best chance for showers, and an isolated thunderstorm, will be across the interior and SW Florida (30-40%). Tuesday will be heavily influenced by high pressure's influence, leading to the drier air and strong easterly winds all day Tuesday. The potential for light showers and an isolated thunderstorm will continue during the day with the best chance for rain to occur near the coast lines and over the open waters.

During the short term period, temperatures will follow a typical easterly regime, ranging from the upper 80s near the immediate east coast, to the low to mid-90s over the interior and southwest Florida.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the middle to the end of the week, a strong mid to upper level ridge will remain parked over the Mid-Atlantic states. At the same time, a mid level inverted trough will try to close off into a low in the western Atlantic as it moves west northwestward. At the surface, a broad area of low pressure may try to develop north of the Bahamas as it pushes west northwestward. The National Hurricane Center currently gives this disturbance a 30 percent chance of development as it moves towards the Southeastern coast.

Forecast uncertainty remains very high for this part of the forecast as the mid level ridge and surface high pressure centered off to the north will play an important role in steering this disturbance. The guidance still remains in disagreement as far as where this system will track and if it actually develops or not. Regardless of development, deep layer tropical moisture will begin to spread back into the region beginning on Wednesday and lasting through the end of the week. This will increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide during this time frame. While the exact details still remain very uncertain due to differences in guidance, the potential for heavy downpours for the middle to the end of the week will lead to the potential for localized flooding concerns to return to portions of South Florida. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures for the middle to the end of the week will generally remain in the upper 80s across the east coast to the lower 90s across Southwest Florida.

Heading into the upcoming weekend, uncertainty will still remain very high as this is towards the end of the forecast period and will remain dependent on the track and timing of the tropical disturbance in the western Atlantic. Chances of showers and thunderstorms may still remain elevated during this time frame with the potential for deep tropical moisture to remain over the region. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures for the weekend will remain in the upper 80s along the east coast to lower 90s across the interior sections.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Generally VFR conditions expected for the 06Z TAF period with potential for some quick moving showers at times, primarily in the late morning to afternoon hours for the eastern TAF sites, and the late afternoon at APF. Light, variable winds and dry conditions will continue for the remainder of the evening. Breezy easterly winds will begin in the morning hours and prevail for the day.

MARINE
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Moderate easterly wind flow across the local waters become moderate to fresh as we head into the start of the new week. Easterly wind flow will continue to strengthen heading into the middle of the week which could lead to the potential for hazardous marine conditions during this time frame across the Atlantic and Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Atlantic Waters today through Tuesday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day. Winds and seas could be locally higher in and around showers and thunderstorms.

BEACHES
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A high risk of rip currents is in effect for the Atlantic coast beaches through mid-week due to onshore easterly flow. The risk remains low for the Gulf beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 88 79 88 80 / 30 20 40 50 West Kendall 88 76 90 77 / 30 20 40 40 Opa-Locka 88 79 90 79 / 30 20 40 50 Homestead 87 79 89 79 / 30 20 40 40 Fort Lauderdale 86 80 87 80 / 30 20 40 50 N Ft Lauderdale 87 79 87 79 / 20 20 40 50 Pembroke Pines 90 80 91 80 / 30 20 40 50 West Palm Beach 88 78 88 77 / 20 20 50 50 Boca Raton 88 79 88 79 / 20 20 40 50 Naples 92 76 94 77 / 40 10 40 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 11 AM EDT this morning through Thursday morning for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.

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Tavernier Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:12 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:59 AM EDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:29 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:50 PM EDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida, Tide feet

Long Key
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:10 AM EDT     -0.83 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:09 AM EDT     0.62 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:56 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:09 PM EDT     -1.12 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:33 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:59 PM EDT     1.07 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:13 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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