Sunrise 5:13 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 5:21 PM   Moonset 2:30 AM

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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 331 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2024
Today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 331 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure stretching in from the western atlantic remains in control through late this week. A frontal boundary approaches from the north on Friday and likely stalls over or just north of the area through Saturday. That front lifts north as a warm front Saturday night and another cold front approaches from the west Sunday into Monday.

FXUS61 KOKX 180809 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 409 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure stretching in from the western Atlantic remains in control through late this week. A frontal boundary approaches from the north on Friday and likely stalls over or just north of the area through Saturday. That front lifts north as a warm front Saturday night and another cold front approaches from the west Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The upper level ridge continues to build over the area today with increasing low level moisture due to a S/SW flow courtesy of the offshore high pressure system. As heights ride over the area, subsidence aloft will gradually warm the lower atmosphere.
As the BL mixes with daytime heating, high temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 80s to low 90s for much of the inland areas.

These hot temperatures combined with the added moisture will result in heat index values of 95-100 degrees for NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and portions of western interior southern CT. As a result, a heat advisory remains in effect for these areas. Coastal areas and NYC will remain relatively cooler with a flow off the ocean preventing high temperatures from rising more than the upper 80s to near 90. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The strong ridge remains in place Wednesday and Thursday with continued heat over the entire region. The heat intensifies slightly and expands a bit to the east for Wednesday and even moreso for Thursday. The main headline change at during this timeframe is the addition of northern Middlesex and northern New London counties in Connecticut for Wednesday through Thursday for heat index values of 95-100. It is likely that heat advisories will be expanded closer to the coast on Thursday as heat continues to expand.

Low temperatures each night will be warm, generally in the upper 60s to middle 70s with the warmest spots in and around the NYC metro.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
**Key Points**

* The heat wave is expected to continue in the long term period, potentially peaking on Friday and continuing through the weekend for some locations.

* The combination of the heat and humidity will produce heat index values of 95 to potentially up to around 105 during this time frame away from the coast. The most impactful effects from the heat will be felt further away from the cooler effects of the ocean, particularly across the Lower Hudson Valley, northeast NJ and interior CT.

* Not much relief at night with warm and humid conditions as overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to the middle 70s, with dew points remaining well into the 60s.

By Friday morning, the upper level ridge over the area will have likely already flattened in response to an upper level trough moving through northern Canada, resulting in a zonal flow over the area.
High pressure centered offshore will also continue to weaken and drift east. This pattern still results in hot and humid conditions across the area with the heat wave potentially peaking Friday and continuing through Sunday for some locations (mainly northeast NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley).

On Friday, a frontal boundary will be approaching from the north and will likely stall over or just north of the area through Saturday before lifting north Saturday night. Given the frontal boundary and some weak disturbances moving through aloft, there will be chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday as well as increased cloud cover. This has the potential to affect high temperatures and have trended highs down just slightly for now. Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue through the weekend. Although there are no hydrologic concerns at the moment, it is worth noting that there may be a chance for any shower or thunderstorm to produce heavy downpours given pwats around 2 inches. A cold front will approach from the west Sunday into Monday and likely move through sometime later on Monday, bringing at least a brief change in airmass.

It is important to exercise caution with the intense heat and high humidity, thus it is important to take precautions to protect one's health, particularly those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure remains in place offshore through the TAF period.

VFR with a S-SW flow through the TAF period.

S-SW flow under 10 kt expected through this morning and then increasing to near 10 kt this afternoon into the early evening with gusts near 20 kt. Not every terminal is expected to have gusts.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Start and end timing of gusts could be a few hours off from the TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tonight: VFR.

Wednesday through Saturday: Mainly VFR. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early evening Wednesday and Thursday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
With high pressure largely in control, sub Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend. Winds and waves may start to increase towards the end of the day on Sunday as a southerly flow picks up ahead of a cold front.

HYDROLOGY
A stalled frontal boundary could bring showers and thunderstorms to the area Friday through the weekend and then a cold front moving through the area early next week will bring additional shower/thunderstorm chances. It remains too soon to determine whether there will be any hydrologic impacts. Any impacts would likely be very localized and more of the minor urban type.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There remains a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches today and Wednesday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ005- 006.
Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ007-008.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NJZ002- 004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

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Tue -- 12:15 AM EDT     -2.72 knots Max Ebb
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