Sunrise 5:10 AM   Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 4:26 PM   Moonset 2:08 AM

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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 105 Am Cdt Mon Jun 17 2024
Rest of tonight - Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing south early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Monday - South wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Monday night - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning. Tuesday - South wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming south 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 4 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 170208 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 908 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions expected for the start of the week with temps and heat indices in the 90s. Hottest temps and heat indices are likely during the day Monday.

- There will be daily thunderstorm chances through the week due to the warm and humid conditions.



UPDATE
Issued 908 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Convection is attempting to initiate over nw WI where outflow boundaries and a slow moving cold front are present. The pressure field and cold front will continue to weaken tnt over said region, while there is a lack of upper dynamics to aid any convection. Isold to scattered convection may occur there tnt, but do not expect it to organize into a MCS that could then affect srn WI during the overnight.

Much farther to the west over NE and wrn IA, the nose of a low level jet and warm, moist advection is expected to initiate widespread convection over said region and into SD and MN.
Multiple MCS's may occur and track enewd through the night into Mon AM. It is possible decaying convection and outflow boundaries could drift into south central WI during the Mon AM daylight hours. This will ultimately determine coverage of convection for later Mon AM into the afternoon, but overall 20-30 percent chances for storms is the forecast for Mon. As long as widespread cloud cover and storms remain to the west and north, a hot and humid day is expected for Mon.

Gehring

SHORT TERM
Issued 344 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Tonight through Monday night:

Main concern or this afternoon and evening is the strong to severe thunderstorm potential as the MCV across eastern IA/northwestern IL tracks northeast. While the ongoing convection is undercut by the outflow racing ahead of it, thinking there will be redevelopment ahead of it as the outflow loses it steams as it pushes into south- central WI. Redevelopment looks to fueled by the environment which has destabilized with SBCAPE north of 2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear around 25-30 knots. If any storms can get going and grow upscale, the environment is supportive of damaging winds threat along with a hail threat. In addition to the outflow boundary, can see hints of an effective warm front boundary on MKX radar strewn across southern WI along with a stalled lake breeze near the lakeshore in Racine/Kenosha counties. Thus, severe thunderstorm or two will be possible through the evening as this activity pulls through the area this evening with the main concern being damaging winds. However, if any storms do interact with any of these boundaries, cannot rule out a brief spin up if things align just right. The main area of concern to see strong to severe storms will be along the WI/IL border north along the I-94/HWY-18 corridor. Potential should decrease through the evening.

Could see additional shower and thunderstorm chances glance our northern CWA overnight as the upstream convection develops and pushes eastward ahead of the mid-level shortwave trough. Less confident on seeing this activity make it into our area, but the potential still remains.

Life threatening waves and currents continue resulting in high swim risk through this evening for Lake Michigan beaches in Sheboygan and Ozaukee counties, while moderate swim risk remains in place for Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha counties. Conditions should improve overnight as waves and winds subside a bit.

Otherwise, looking to continue with the hotter and humid conditions for Monday as we sit under the western peripheral of the upper-level ridge. Looking at daytime temps in the upper 80s and 90s and even hotter heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. While we will near heat advisory levels, think we will generally remain below threshold at this time, but still need to exercise caution if outdoors or exposed to the heat. Overnight temps are looking very warm as well with lows only dipping into the lower 70s.

Additionally cannot rule out a few pop-up isolated showers/ thunderstorms for Monday afternoon. While there is not a real discernible forcing mechanism to trigger the storms at this time, cannot ignore the ample moisture (dewpoints in the 60s/70s) and instability (SBCAPE +20000 J/kg) available. The main forcing mechanism that could potential trigger a storm or two would likely be from a lingering boundary from overnight convection tracking across the area, but difficult to tell if and where this may occur.

Wagner

LONG TERM
Issued 344 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Tuesday through Sunday:

Heat and humid conditions will continue Tuesday into Wednesday with daily low-end shower/storm chances. A cold frontal boundary looks to gradually push southward through WI during the day Wednesday into Thursday, which will be enough forcing along with a right entrance region of an upper-level jet for the increased shower/thunderstorm chances. The frontal boundary is trending on stalling across the area through the end of the week bringing additional precipitation and storm chances.

Wagner

AVIATION
Issued 908 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions tnt-Mon evening. Sct040 cumulus for Mon afternoon.

Gehring

MARINE
Issued 908 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Modest southerly winds will prevail tonight through Monday night.
Another low pressure area will then track from the northern Great Plains into northern Ontario Tuesday into Tuesday night with breezy south winds over Lake Michigan. A cold front will then slowly move southward across the lake Wednesday into early Thursday.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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