Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 2:14 AM   Moonset 3:25 PM

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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 942 Am Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Rest of today - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 7 seconds. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and se 1 ft at 9 seconds. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and se 1 ft at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Thu - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 942 Am Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - High pressure will move off the carolina coast. A backdoor cold front may stall across north carolina Tuesday into Wednesday, likely remaining north of the cape fear area.

FXUS62 KILM 021728 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 128 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will move farther off the Carolina coast this week. Southerly winds bring warmer and more humid air northward, resulting in spotty mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms every day. A cold front could reach the Carolinas by Friday.

UPDATE
Going forecast looks to be on track for the afternoon. Little adjustment was made to going package.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Latest surface analysis shows a broad surface high that is centered just offshore of the Outer Banks, with the western edge of it extending through Appalachia, the CSRA, the Coastal Empire, and northeast Florida. Associated upper ridge is nearly in tune with the surface feature, as the ridge axis comes down from the Outer Banks into the Atlantic.

To the west, a shortwave trough at 500mb digs into the southern portion of metro Atlanta, slowly pushing eastward. There is minimal PVA just ahead of this shortwave, and has mostly produced mid-high level clouds and virga. However, this forcing proved to be just strong enough to produce light rain in Thomson, GA a couple hours ago.

As the shortwave moves eastward today, it will continue to bring along its associated (weak) forcing, as well as an increase in moisture. I think the high-resolution guidance is a bit quick with the moistening of the atmosphere, so I've left out virtually any mention of rain chances prior to 18Z this afternoon. An increase in cloud cover will be the main game here. Offshore high pressure maintains a nice subsidence inversion at around 700mb, which also helps to limit rain chances. By later in the afternoon, that inversion starts to slowly break down along and west of I-95. With the timing of the shortwave's arrival, I've included just a slight chance of a brief shower or two in these areas for this afternoon and tonight after 18Z
Not that this really means much
no real rainfall accumulations to speak of.

Despite scattered to broken cirrus cloud over during the overnight hours, we've radiated a bit better than I thought we would. Temperatures just before sunrise this morning should bottom out in the lower 60s inland, some mid 50s in the typical cold spots. Highs today in the lower 80s. Lows tonight in the mid 60s inland, near 70 at the coast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Previous forecast remains on track for Monday. Despite slight mid-level ridging over the area, better deep-layer moisture than today in conjunction with an inland thermal trough and sea breeze will yield widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in the aftn/early evening until the loss of daytime heating. High temps in the mid 80s, with lows Monday night between 65-70.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Pattern remains fairly stagnant for at least the first half of this period, with sfc high pressure offshore and weak ridging aloft, while transient shortwaves aid in isolated to scattered diurnal convection. Highest rain chances (up to 50%) are Thursday with more favorable instability over the area and a frontal boundary approaching from the west. Temps will also slowly rise through the week, into the low 90s by Thursday with heat indices in the mid/upr 90s. Aforementioned front is progged to cross the area Friday, with a general trend towards drier weather into the weekend, and temps still slightly above normal for early June - highs in the upr 80s/lwr 90s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR for the 18Z TAF period. There is a low potential for a few showers during the period but the potential is too low to include in the terminals. S to SW winds invof 10 KT this afternoon will become light overnight before becoming S to SW at 5 to 10 KT in the 12 to 18Z window.

Extended Outlook...Isolated mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Wednesday, becoming a little more widespread Thursday. VFR expected Friday.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Southeasterly winds at 5-10kts become more southerly by midday, gusting up to 15kts at times. Winds develop more of a SSW tilt by late tonight. Seas hang in at 1-2ft, with a southeasterly swell at 8-9 seconds, and an easterly swell at 6-7 seconds.

Monday through Thursday...No headlines anticipated this period.
Sfc high pressure remains locked in place offshore leading to persistent southerly flow over the coastal waters, occasionally up to ~15 kt. Seas 2-3 ft, up to 4 ft on Thursday, which includes a steady 1-2 ft 7-8 second SE swell component.

CLIMATE
Climatological Spring 2024 numbers are in and record-breaking warmth occurred at Wilmington, NC where temperature records date back to 1874.

Wilmington recorded its warmest spring on record with an average March-May temperature of 66.4 degrees, breaking the record of 66.3 set back in the Spring of 2012. Although high temperatures were warm, it was exceptional warmth for overnight lows that really helped break the record.

In North Myrtle Beach this was the second warmest spring since records began with an average spring temperature of 65.7 degrees. 2012 remains the warmest spring on record there.

Inland at Florence, SC and Lumberton, NC, both stations recorded their sixth warmest spring on record with average temperatures of 66.6 and 65.3 degrees, respectively.

Detailed spring climatological data is available in the seasonal climate summaries (CLS) text products issued yesterday afternoon.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Wachesaw Landing
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Sun -- 02:51 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:05 AM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:07 PM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:43 PM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Wachesaw Landing, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Arundel Plantation
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Sun -- 02:30 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:32 AM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:46 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:10 PM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Arundel Plantation, Great Pee Dee River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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