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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 211 Pm Pdt Sat Jun 1 2024
Tonight - NW wind around 5 kt, backing to S after midnight, rising to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves around 2 ft or less. A chance of rain.Sun - SE wind 20 to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.Sun night - S wind 20 to 25 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft in the evening, then around 2 ft or less. Rain.Mon - S wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Rain.Mon night - S wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.Tue - SE wind 25 to 30 kt, veering to S 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Rain.Tue night - W wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw around 5 kt after midnight. Waves around 3 ft in the evening, then around 2 ft or less. A chance of rain. Wed - E wind around 5 kt, backing to N in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Wed night - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Thu - NW wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Thu night - NW wind around 10 kt, easing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less.

PZZ100 211 Pm Pdt Sat Jun 1 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - A stronger front will approach the waters Sunday and move onshore by early Monday morning. Another front is expected to arrive on Tuesday. High pressure will then build back into the coastal waters on Wednesday.

FXUS66 KSEW 012228 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 328 PM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak system moving through Western Washington this afternoon. A rare late spring atmospheric river will take aim at the area beginning Sunday morning, with rain, heavy at times, through Monday afternoon. Rain will continue into Tuesday but with the atmospheric river weakening rainfall amounts will be lighter. An upper level ridge will quickly building over the area into Thursday through Friday for a transition to drier and warmer weather.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Key Messages for Upcoming Active Weather Pattern

* A late season atmospheric river pattern will develop Sunday through Tuesday.

* Heavy rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches along the coast and 3 to 5 inches in the mountains during this timeframe.

* Moderate to heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across the lowlands during this timeframe.

* Snow levels above 6500 feet will promote additional runoff with several area rivers flowing out of the Cascades forecast to enter action or even minor flood stage. A Flood Watch remains in effect across portions of western Washington, with the extension into Lewis County.

A weak frontal system will continue to move across western Washington this afternoon for some light rain showers mainly across the Olympic Peninsula and the northern portion of the area.
High temperatures this afternoon will remain in the upper 50s.

Tonight, a much stronger frontal system will move into the Pacific Northwest as a shortwave trough gets ejected from a closed low over in the Gulf of Alaska. An atmospheric like pattern starts to develop as the jet pushes a plume of moisture from the Pacific right along the coastline. Rain will start to spread inland late tonight into Sunday morning, with rainfall rates gradually increasing into the afternoon. By Sunday night, rainfall rates will generally be around 0.05 to 0
10 inches per hour
it is something to note that generally these rainfall rates will be largely focused in the southern slopes of the Olympics and in the Cascades. Model PWAT values around 1.0 to around 1.2 inches and increasing low to mid level southwesterly winds will only enhance the precip rates over the Olympics and the Cascades.

Heading into Monday morning, it is definitely looking like a wet and soggy commute, with 24 hour rain totals by Monday morning looking to be around 0.50 to 1.0 inches for the lowlands, 2 to 3 inches in the Cascades, and at least 3 inches in the Olympics.

Rainfall rates will start to ease by Monday afternoon, but wet conditions will continue with some breezy winds as a shortwave trough moves overhead western Washington. Cooler air aloft will help develop weak instability, with the possibility for a few lightning strikes Monday afternoon into Monday evening. High temperatures will remain in the upper 50s, even lower 60s on Monday.

A quick break in the action Monday night before the atmospheric river pattern continues with another round of moderate to heavy rainfall through Tuesday. This disturbance looks a little bit weaker than the previous one on Monday, with weaker PWAT values and weaker southwesterly winds aloft... although winds at the surface will pick up ahead of the front, for breezy conditions across the area. Again, the heaviest of the precip will be focused in the Olympics and in the Cascades, with lower values in the lowlands. Total amounts into Wednesday morning look to be around 2 to 4 inches along the coast, 3 to 5 inches in the Cascades and the Olympics.. and around 1 to 2 inches for the interior lowlands.

It is important to note that especially with the start of June, people will be in the mountains for recreation. Small streams and rivers will be running unusually high and still remain cold, so be weather aware and check if you do go. Always have ways to get watches or warnings.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
After the funnel of moisture earlier on in the week, model guidance is indicating in an upper level ridge quickly building into the Pacific Northwest, for warmer and drier conditions into the end of the week. Heading into Thursday, afternoon high temperatures generally in the 70s can be found pretty much throughout most of the area, even along the coast.

Uncertainty does exist heading into the weekend.. as the GFS ensemble pushes the ridge further east.. with a frontal system brushing by the area on Friday. Although the EC and the ENS members keep the ridge pretty much parked over western Washington.
Taking a look at the cluster guidance, it does look more uncertain on which solution remains victorious. Given the uncertainty, did not deviate much from the NBM, putting afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

Mazurkiewicz

AVIATION
Southwesterly flow aloft as the next frontal system approaches the region. Expect mostly VFR conditions through the interior, with lowering ceilings toward the coast and northwestern portions of the area as the front pushes eastward. Expect a return of lower clouds, additional rain, and gusty southerly winds tonight and especially Sunday across the region.

KSEA...VFR conditions continue with southerly surface winds and a few few scattered showers. Ceilings will gradually lower further with increasing rain coverage late tonight with steadier rain and MVFR ceilings likely after 12z through much of Sunday.

MARINE
Relatively benign conditions across the waters this afternoon, but expect much more active conditions starting late tonight and early Sunday as the next frontal system approaches the area. This next front will bring increasing winds with advisory strength winds across the coastal waters by daybreak Sunday. There remains around a 40% chance of a burst of gale gusts if a coastal jet develops ahead of the front, with the best chances south of Point Grenville. This would be most likely within a few hours of noon Sunday, and as such have issued advisories and added this wording for the southern coastal zones. Give this confidence level and that gales are not expected to be sufficiently widespread if they do develop, will refrain from any gale headlines at this time. Meanwhile, seas will also sharply build in response to the winds with this front and will be rather steep Sunday and into Monday.

An SCA has been issued for the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca for pre-frontal southeasterly winds as well. It's possible this will need to be extended to other interior zones, but confidence remains lower for now and will take another look with the next update.

The pattern remains active with additional frontal systems bringing rounds of stronger winds later Monday into Tuesday. This will bring steadily increasing seas over the coastal waters, with seas expected to build into the 10 to 13 ft range early in the week.
Meanwhile, wave periods remain rather short (around 8 seconds), maintaining steep seas. High pressure is then likely to build late in the week. Cullen

HYDROLOGY
The Sunday through Tuesday forecasted rain totals are still 3 to 5 inches for the Olympics and the Cascades, with the possibility of 6 inch bullseyes along the southwest slopes of the Olympics. Snow levels will be in the 6000 to as high as 8500 foot range for most of the event. West southwesterly flow aloft favors the heaviest rainfall to be along the southwest slopes of the Olympics and the Central Washington Cascades. Several rivers flowing out of the Central Cascades and Southern Olympics are forecast to reach action stage. The flood watch for Skagit, Snohomish, King, Pierce and Mason counties remains in effect, with the addition of Lewis County.

Felton/Mazurkiewicz

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Flood Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for Bellevue and Vicinity-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area- Olympics-Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-West Slopes North Cascades and Passes-West Slopes North Central Cascades and Passes-West Slopes South Central Cascades and Passes-Western Skagit County.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

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Point Hudson
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Sat -- 12:26 AM PDT     9.02 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:42 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:14 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:08 AM PDT     2.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:55 PM PDT     5.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:27 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:57 PM PDT     2.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:03 PM PDT     Sunset
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Point Hudson, Washington, Tide feet

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