Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Caroline, VA
June 11, 2024 4:22 AM EDT (08:22 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:46 AM Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 9:36 AM Moonset 11:45 PM |
ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 139 Am Edt Tue Jun 11 2024
Overnight - N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night - N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed - W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri - W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Sat - NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 331 Am Edt Tue Jun 11 2024
Synopsis - Ridge axis of the atlantic high remains suppressed well to the south across the caribbean, with a stationary front draped from north florida into the adjacent atlantic waters. Surface disturbances, most of them weak, could develop south of this boundary from the gulf of mexico to the local atlantic waters from mid through late week, producing periodic poor boating conditions. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms are expected across the waters through the remainder of the week.
Gulf stream hazards - South to southwest winds increase to 15 to 20 knots across the offshore waters late this afternoon and into the overnigt.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Sunday, june 9th.
36 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 28 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 14 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 7 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Sunday, june 9th.
36 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 28 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 14 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 7 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
FXUS61 KAKQ 110812 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 412 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
An upper level trough moves through the area today, bringing isolated to scattered showers and storms, mainly near the coast. High pressure settles across the region on Wednesday, then pushes off the coast Thursday and Friday, bringing hot conditions to the local area by the end of the week. A cold front pushes through Friday night, with slightly cooler weather for the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key message:
- Scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon closer to the coast. Locally heavy rain and isolated strong storms are possible.
The latest WX analysis indicates an upper level low centered from eastern Canada to the eastern Great Lakes, with a series of shortwaves rotating around the base of the trough and pushing through the mid-Atlantic. The first shortwave is pushing off the Delmarva coast and taking a cluster of showers/storms that affected the eastern shore offshore. While a spotty light shower may pivot through SE VA early, the sky is partly cloudy to mostly clear elsewhere with lows through sunrise into the mid to upper 50s well inland, to low- mid 60s along the coast.
The primary feature of interest today will be the next shortwave, currently located across the OH Valley and forecast to pivot ESE through this aftn across the local area. Dry conditions this morning, with a partly to mostly sunny sky will see increasing clouds late in the morning through the aftn as this occurs. At the sfc, there will be a lingering trough extending N from low pressure centered off the SE US coast. This will lead to some enhanced sfc/low level convergence and seabreeze boundaries closer to the coast. SPC maintains a Marginal SVR risk across far SE VA and NE NC for wind/hail.
The limiting factor will be a NE low level flow which will keep temperatures down in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with modest low level lapse rates. Additionally, the steeper mid level lapse rates of 6.5C or greater are forecast to stay farther north closer to the core of the upper low, perhaps bushing the eastern shore this aftn, while remaining weaker in the ~5.5C range where the better moisture and highest PoPs reside in the SE. The NW flow aloft will provide some shear so if anything becomes organized enough, at least some isolated stronger downbursts will be possible, though the extent of this is rather uncertain.
Do anticipate a decent coverage of showers and embedded storms over far SE VA and NE NC this aftn (with high chc to likely PoPs). Heavy downpours and locally heavy rain will be possible.
It should be noted that locations at the immediate coast will have a lower threat than areas about 10-30 miles inland from the coast. Mainly dry farther inland today. Highs range from the upper 70s near the immediate coast to the lower 80s inland.
Any showers should end rather quickly this evening, then becoming mostly clear with lows in the 50s well inland to the low-mid 60s near the coast.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
- Dry with seasonable temperatures Wednesday as high pressure settles across the area.
The upper trough will be well off to the NE of the local area on Wed, as an upper level ridge centered across the desert SW slowly builds eastward. The flow aloft will be from the NW with light flow in the low levels as a broad area of sfc high pressure settles over the region, shifting off the coast in the aftn. Dry with mostly sunny skies in the morning becoming partly cloudy with SCT Cu in the aftn. Seasonable highs for Wed ranging from the mid 80s inland to near 80F at the coast, with dew pts in the 50s to around 60F keeping conditions rather pleasant. Mostly clear and a little warmer Wed night with lows primarily ranging through the 60s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 405 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- A warming trend is expected through the end of the week with highs reaching the low-mid 90s by Friday.
- Cooler but still a little above average for the weekend.
Likely turning hot next week.
An upper level ridge, originating from the SW CONUS, builds east late in the week as an upper trough weakens across eastern Canada. The overall trend is for the upper trough across eastern Canada to be a little stronger and as such, the core of the upper ridge stays well off to our W/SW over the Plains states. At the surface, high pressure will remain centered along the east coast, gradually sliding offshore. Temperatures will increase into the mid/upper 80s to around 90F Thursday, with Friday likely the hottest day of the period with deep mixing and 850 mb temperatures rising to 18-19C. Highs Friday looks to average into the mid 90s well inland across central VA/metro RIC, with upper 80s to lower 90s closer to the coast. However, given the continental origin of this airmass, dew pts continue to be fairly low, mixing into the low-mid 60s (or possibly even the upper 50s), which will act to mitigate the heat index from being much warmer than the actual air temp. Near the coast, dew pts will be a little higher, but given a rather weak pressure gradient, winds likely back to the SE and keep actual air temperatures held in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat Advisories look unlikely at this time, with peak heat indices in the mid- upper 90s (perhaps reaching 100F in isolated locations) on Fri afternoon. A cold front moves through Fri night into Sat, with a slight chc for tstms Friday night (mainly across the NE). For the weekend, temps cool back closer to normal with highs in the mid/upper 80s to around 90F inland, to the lower 80s near the coast. An isolated shower/tstms possible over NE NC Sat aftn but most places look to stay dry. Lows look to be warmest Thu and Fri nights as temps likely won't drop below 70F in urban locations, with mid to upper 60s over rural interior sections.
Lows by Sat night and Sun night will be a bit cooler, with 60-65F inland and upper 60s at the coast. Expect temperatures to warm back into the 90s for much of the area on Monday. Beyond that, particularly by midweek (which is beyond the 7-day forecast period), shows the potential for the upper level ridge to become centered over the ern CONUS, though with a lot of model disagreement. The 00Z/11 ECMWF suggests an extended hot period while the GFS/Canadian are much weaker and transient with the ridge. Either way, temperatures look to be above normal next week.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 155 AM EDT Tuesday...
A cluster of showers/tstms is pushing off the coast of the eastern shore, with gusty winds and brief heavy downpours. SBY is now seeing improving conditions with rain ending and will become VFR right around the start of the TAF period. Elsewhere, just a few isolated light showers are passing across central and southern VA but will likely miss all of the main terminals with VFR conditions w/ SCT-BKN clouds at 5-10k ft. Clouds generally diminish in coverage towards sunrise, with winds shifting to the N/NE. Expect to see CU increase in coverage by mid- late morning (especially along the coast), with scattered showers and embedded tstms developing between 15-18Z, enhanced along a sea breeze boundary across far SE VA/NE NC and the eastern shore.
Locally heavy downpours are likely with any storm, with brief gusty winds and hail possible in the strongest storms (though coverage of stronger storms is expected to be isolated). The most probably flight restriction will be from IFR-LIFR VSBYs in heavy downpours, through a few MVFR CIGs are possible. The best chance is at ECG where a period with prevailing SHRA and VCTS has been included in the TAF. While possible, confidence is lower at ORF/PHF/SBY where VCSH has been included for now.
Limited chance for any convection to affect RIC. Any showers/storms taper off between 21Z-00Z, dry and becoming mostly clear later tonight.
Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail with dry weather tonight through Friday.
MARINE
As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key messages:
- Generally quiet marine conditions expected through Thursday before an increase of S-SE winds on Thu night and Friday.
Early AM surface analysis shows a weak front dropping southward across the waters with winds becoming N 10-15 kt in its wake. Most of the convection associated with this front is now exiting the waters off of Ocean City. An upper trough is noted to the west of the local area and should swing through the region today.
Northerly flow will prevail through the morning hours before sea breeze forcing turns the flow more onshore by early afternoon, especially from the southern Ches Bay southward into NE NC. A few showers or storms may form along this area of surface convergence, resulting in locally enhanced winds/waves/seas. High pressure builds into the region this evening into Wednesday with benign marine conditions expected. The surface high moves offshore on Thursday with flow becoming SE and increasing to ~15 kt by late Thursday afternoon. Marginal SCA conditions are possible Thursday evening into Friday and again Friday night into Saturday as a cold front swings through the waters. Waves and seas will average 1-2 ft through the daylight hours of Thursday before increasing along with the winds into Friday and Saturday. At this time, it appears seas will stay below 5 ft through the forecast period.
Despite winds turning more onshore this afternoon across the southern waters, the rip current risk will remain low through Wednesday with surf heights of 1-2 ft.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 412 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
An upper level trough moves through the area today, bringing isolated to scattered showers and storms, mainly near the coast. High pressure settles across the region on Wednesday, then pushes off the coast Thursday and Friday, bringing hot conditions to the local area by the end of the week. A cold front pushes through Friday night, with slightly cooler weather for the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key message:
- Scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon closer to the coast. Locally heavy rain and isolated strong storms are possible.
The latest WX analysis indicates an upper level low centered from eastern Canada to the eastern Great Lakes, with a series of shortwaves rotating around the base of the trough and pushing through the mid-Atlantic. The first shortwave is pushing off the Delmarva coast and taking a cluster of showers/storms that affected the eastern shore offshore. While a spotty light shower may pivot through SE VA early, the sky is partly cloudy to mostly clear elsewhere with lows through sunrise into the mid to upper 50s well inland, to low- mid 60s along the coast.
The primary feature of interest today will be the next shortwave, currently located across the OH Valley and forecast to pivot ESE through this aftn across the local area. Dry conditions this morning, with a partly to mostly sunny sky will see increasing clouds late in the morning through the aftn as this occurs. At the sfc, there will be a lingering trough extending N from low pressure centered off the SE US coast. This will lead to some enhanced sfc/low level convergence and seabreeze boundaries closer to the coast. SPC maintains a Marginal SVR risk across far SE VA and NE NC for wind/hail.
The limiting factor will be a NE low level flow which will keep temperatures down in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with modest low level lapse rates. Additionally, the steeper mid level lapse rates of 6.5C or greater are forecast to stay farther north closer to the core of the upper low, perhaps bushing the eastern shore this aftn, while remaining weaker in the ~5.5C range where the better moisture and highest PoPs reside in the SE. The NW flow aloft will provide some shear so if anything becomes organized enough, at least some isolated stronger downbursts will be possible, though the extent of this is rather uncertain.
Do anticipate a decent coverage of showers and embedded storms over far SE VA and NE NC this aftn (with high chc to likely PoPs). Heavy downpours and locally heavy rain will be possible.
It should be noted that locations at the immediate coast will have a lower threat than areas about 10-30 miles inland from the coast. Mainly dry farther inland today. Highs range from the upper 70s near the immediate coast to the lower 80s inland.
Any showers should end rather quickly this evening, then becoming mostly clear with lows in the 50s well inland to the low-mid 60s near the coast.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
- Dry with seasonable temperatures Wednesday as high pressure settles across the area.
The upper trough will be well off to the NE of the local area on Wed, as an upper level ridge centered across the desert SW slowly builds eastward. The flow aloft will be from the NW with light flow in the low levels as a broad area of sfc high pressure settles over the region, shifting off the coast in the aftn. Dry with mostly sunny skies in the morning becoming partly cloudy with SCT Cu in the aftn. Seasonable highs for Wed ranging from the mid 80s inland to near 80F at the coast, with dew pts in the 50s to around 60F keeping conditions rather pleasant. Mostly clear and a little warmer Wed night with lows primarily ranging through the 60s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 405 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- A warming trend is expected through the end of the week with highs reaching the low-mid 90s by Friday.
- Cooler but still a little above average for the weekend.
Likely turning hot next week.
An upper level ridge, originating from the SW CONUS, builds east late in the week as an upper trough weakens across eastern Canada. The overall trend is for the upper trough across eastern Canada to be a little stronger and as such, the core of the upper ridge stays well off to our W/SW over the Plains states. At the surface, high pressure will remain centered along the east coast, gradually sliding offshore. Temperatures will increase into the mid/upper 80s to around 90F Thursday, with Friday likely the hottest day of the period with deep mixing and 850 mb temperatures rising to 18-19C. Highs Friday looks to average into the mid 90s well inland across central VA/metro RIC, with upper 80s to lower 90s closer to the coast. However, given the continental origin of this airmass, dew pts continue to be fairly low, mixing into the low-mid 60s (or possibly even the upper 50s), which will act to mitigate the heat index from being much warmer than the actual air temp. Near the coast, dew pts will be a little higher, but given a rather weak pressure gradient, winds likely back to the SE and keep actual air temperatures held in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat Advisories look unlikely at this time, with peak heat indices in the mid- upper 90s (perhaps reaching 100F in isolated locations) on Fri afternoon. A cold front moves through Fri night into Sat, with a slight chc for tstms Friday night (mainly across the NE). For the weekend, temps cool back closer to normal with highs in the mid/upper 80s to around 90F inland, to the lower 80s near the coast. An isolated shower/tstms possible over NE NC Sat aftn but most places look to stay dry. Lows look to be warmest Thu and Fri nights as temps likely won't drop below 70F in urban locations, with mid to upper 60s over rural interior sections.
Lows by Sat night and Sun night will be a bit cooler, with 60-65F inland and upper 60s at the coast. Expect temperatures to warm back into the 90s for much of the area on Monday. Beyond that, particularly by midweek (which is beyond the 7-day forecast period), shows the potential for the upper level ridge to become centered over the ern CONUS, though with a lot of model disagreement. The 00Z/11 ECMWF suggests an extended hot period while the GFS/Canadian are much weaker and transient with the ridge. Either way, temperatures look to be above normal next week.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 155 AM EDT Tuesday...
A cluster of showers/tstms is pushing off the coast of the eastern shore, with gusty winds and brief heavy downpours. SBY is now seeing improving conditions with rain ending and will become VFR right around the start of the TAF period. Elsewhere, just a few isolated light showers are passing across central and southern VA but will likely miss all of the main terminals with VFR conditions w/ SCT-BKN clouds at 5-10k ft. Clouds generally diminish in coverage towards sunrise, with winds shifting to the N/NE. Expect to see CU increase in coverage by mid- late morning (especially along the coast), with scattered showers and embedded tstms developing between 15-18Z, enhanced along a sea breeze boundary across far SE VA/NE NC and the eastern shore.
Locally heavy downpours are likely with any storm, with brief gusty winds and hail possible in the strongest storms (though coverage of stronger storms is expected to be isolated). The most probably flight restriction will be from IFR-LIFR VSBYs in heavy downpours, through a few MVFR CIGs are possible. The best chance is at ECG where a period with prevailing SHRA and VCTS has been included in the TAF. While possible, confidence is lower at ORF/PHF/SBY where VCSH has been included for now.
Limited chance for any convection to affect RIC. Any showers/storms taper off between 21Z-00Z, dry and becoming mostly clear later tonight.
Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail with dry weather tonight through Friday.
MARINE
As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key messages:
- Generally quiet marine conditions expected through Thursday before an increase of S-SE winds on Thu night and Friday.
Early AM surface analysis shows a weak front dropping southward across the waters with winds becoming N 10-15 kt in its wake. Most of the convection associated with this front is now exiting the waters off of Ocean City. An upper trough is noted to the west of the local area and should swing through the region today.
Northerly flow will prevail through the morning hours before sea breeze forcing turns the flow more onshore by early afternoon, especially from the southern Ches Bay southward into NE NC. A few showers or storms may form along this area of surface convergence, resulting in locally enhanced winds/waves/seas. High pressure builds into the region this evening into Wednesday with benign marine conditions expected. The surface high moves offshore on Thursday with flow becoming SE and increasing to ~15 kt by late Thursday afternoon. Marginal SCA conditions are possible Thursday evening into Friday and again Friday night into Saturday as a cold front swings through the waters. Waves and seas will average 1-2 ft through the daylight hours of Thursday before increasing along with the winds into Friday and Saturday. At this time, it appears seas will stay below 5 ft through the forecast period.
Despite winds turning more onshore this afternoon across the southern waters, the rip current risk will remain low through Wednesday with surf heights of 1-2 ft.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Link to 5 minute data for KOFP
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KOFP
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KOFP
Wind History graph: OFP
(wind in knots)Massaponax
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:18 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:45 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 06:22 AM EDT 0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:34 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 11:29 AM EDT 2.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:05 PM EDT 0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:33 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:18 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:45 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 06:22 AM EDT 0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:34 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 11:29 AM EDT 2.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:05 PM EDT 0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:33 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.5 |
| 1 am |
| 2.2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.8 |
| 3 am |
| 1.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.5 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.8 |
| 10 am |
| 2.4 |
| 11 am |
| 2.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 2 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.4 |
Port Royal
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:17 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:08 AM EDT 0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:45 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:55 AM EDT 2.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:33 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 04:51 PM EDT 0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:32 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT 1.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:17 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:08 AM EDT 0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:45 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:55 AM EDT 2.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:33 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 04:51 PM EDT 0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:32 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT 1.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Port Royal, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.4 |
| 1 am |
| 1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0.5 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.8 |
| 7 am |
| 1.3 |
| 8 am |
| 1.7 |
| 9 am |
| 2 |
| 10 am |
| 2.1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.9 |
Wakefield, VA,
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