Sunrise 5:34 AM   Sunset 9:00 PM Moonrise 11:45 AM   Moonset 12:24 AM

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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday - .peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.

PZZ300 217 Am Pdt Thu Jun 13 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - Winds and seas lower some today, but remain elevated through tonight with a mixture of both a hazardous seas warning and a small craft advisory. Conditions will improve by Friday with lighter winds and lower seas across all areas through the weekend. Some uncertainty to end the weekend into early next week with potential for strong winds and steep seas, but a lot will depend on the track of upper level systems.

FXUS66 KMFR 131126 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 426 AM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024

New Aviation Section

.AVIATION (12Z TAFs)...

Current observation at North Bend (KOTH) doesn't indicate low clouds, but satellite suggest this is a possibility this morning, so went ahead and added some IFR ceilings based on satellite trends. Otherwise, the inland TAF sites are expected to remain in VFR throughout this cycle, but expecting high clouds to infiltrate over the region tonight. KOTH will likely see some relief and VFR conditions later today, but another round of low stratus is anticipated Friday morning. Lastly, breezy afternoon wind speeds are expected today.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 258 AM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024/

DISCUSSION...Fog is building in the Coquille valley and current expectations are for there and portions of Curry county around Brookings to be the only places where fog forms.

The thermal trough along the coast will shift inland today. This will bring a small 1 to 3 degree bump up in temperatures from yesterday and drier conditions along the I-5 corridor. The displacement of the thermal trough is being driven by the overspreading of a mid-level trough over the Pacific coast. In addition to the small fluctuations in temperature and humidity, the larger impact will be to winds. The west east pressure gradient will amplify, causing the typical diurnal winds to be a bit stronger than normal (10-20 mph, gusts around 30-35 mph). This will be especially true in the lee of the Cascades, where the downslope winds and humidities below 15% could lead to brief critical fire weather conditions for 1 to 2 hours in Modoc, Lake, and eastern Klamath County. Critical fire weather conditions may also exist for an hour or two around the Scott Valley today.
However, it's important to note that these conditions are fairly typical in the summer and not really uncommon.

Friday, a noticeable cooldown is expected as the trough moves a cooler polar air mass into the region. Conditions will again be windy in the afternoon as the diurnal winds get an enhancement, but with humidities trending up a few percentages, no fire weather concerns are expected. Perhaps the bigger concern will be the cold temperatures in the mountains and areas east of the Cascades.
Near to below freezing temperatures are expected Friday night and continuing through the weekend. Anyone in these areas with plants outside will want to consider covering them, and campers will want to make sure they plan appropriately for these cold temperatures.

There is a small chance for rain amounts less than 0.05" Friday night across Coos, Douglas, and northern Klamath County, especially in the higher terrain. The more moist front is expected Sunday into Monday. Chances are peaking around 40%, so nothing is certain with this front other than some elevated wind speeds and a good marine push leading to increasing humidities.
If enough moisture does arrive with the front to produce precipitation, amounts are generally expected to be less than 0.1", except in the coast range and the Cascades, where up to 0.2" seems reasonable. There could also be a thunderstorm threat with this system, but for right now, the greatest instability is ahead, not along, the front and the core of the trough is too far north to add thunderstorms to the forecast. That said, some showers will still be strong and their heavier precipitation rates combined with snow levels near or below below 6kft, the peaks of the Cascades (including at Crater Lake NP) could pick up some new wet snow cover.

We will remain in this cooler, unsettled weather pattern into the start of next week.

-Miles

AVIATION
13/06Z TAFs
VFR continues nearly everywhere late this evening. For most of the area, it will remain that way for the next 24 hours. Patchy MVFR ceilings are developing in portions of northern Curry County and along the coast north of Cape Blanco. With the wind expected to be slightly E of due north, the clouds that continue to form overnight may just hug the immediate coastline. At North Bend, we're maintaining SCT010 after 10Z, with the idea that perhaps it could go either way (50/50 chance of BKN or SKC) in the early morning hours Thursday. Similarly, patchy MVFR ceilings are possible in the Umpqua Basin, though again, confidence in a BKN ceiling is low. As such, the Roseburg TAF continued with SCT020 for a few hours (14-17Z) Thursday morning (with about a 30% chance of BKN). Gusty northerly winds will redevelop along the coast Thursday afternoon, but won't be as strong as today. Breezes similar to today's will develop over the inland valleys, though it'll probably be a bit gustier over the east side, including at Klamath Falls.

-Spilde

MARINE
Updated 230 AM Thursday, June 13, 2024
Steep seas will continue across all waters through Friday morning, with areas of very steep seas (Hazardous Seas Warning) continuing south of Port Orford this morning across the outer waters. Thereafter, relatively calmer seas are expected through Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, there is a lot of uncertainty with model guidance, and there is at least some potential for a strong closed low to pass aloft. This could bring in a strong fresh swell in addition to stronger wind speeds than we currently have forecast at the moment.
We essentially have a scenario where either an upper level low takes a northern track or a southern track through the PacNW Sun-Mon. As the track becomes clearer, we should have a much better idea of potential hazards (or lack thereof) over the waters.

-Guerrero

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM PDT Friday for PZZ376.

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Reedsport
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Thu -- 01:24 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:28 AM PDT     2.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:34 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:35 AM PDT     4.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:44 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:30 PM PDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM PDT     5.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:59 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:19 PM PDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Florence
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Thu -- 01:02 AM PDT     2.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:24 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:33 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:08 AM PDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:44 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:04 PM PDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM PDT     5.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:00 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:19 PM PDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon, Tide feet

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