Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 8:53 PM Moonrise 2:09 AM   Moonset 3:48 PM

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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 827 Pm Pdt Sun Jun 2 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday evening - .
Tonight - S wind 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 7 to 9 ft. Wave detail: sw 8 ft at 7 seconds and W 6 ft at 10 seconds. Rain until early morning, then a chance of rain late.Mon - SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 9 ft. Wave detail: W 5 ft at 6 seconds and W 8 ft at 9 seconds. Mon night - S wind 10 to 15 kt, rising to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9 to 10 ft. Wave detail: sw 5 ft at 5 seconds and W 9 ft at 10 seconds. Tue - S wind 20 to 25 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 10 ft. Wave detail: sw 7 ft at 6 seconds and W 8 ft at 10 seconds. Tue night - SW wind 5 to 10 kt, veering to N after midnight. Seas 8 to 10 ft, building to 11 to 12 ft after midnight. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds, W 12 ft at 15 seconds and sw 2 ft at 17 seconds. Wed - N wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 13 ft. Wave detail: nw 3 ft at 4 seconds, W 12 ft at 15 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Wed night - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 12 ft.Thu - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft. Thu night - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 9 ft, subsiding to 6 to 7 ft after midnight. Fri - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Fri night - N wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft.

PZZ300 827 Pm Pdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - Gusty south to southwest winds will persist through tonight, though will gradually weaken as the front pushes onshore this evening. With winds easing, seas will improve some, but remain steep as a west swell moves into the waters late tonight into Monday. Seas will likely remain hazardous to small craft through Tuesday as southerly winds briefly increase again ahead of another, weaker, cold front. Seas are likely to remain steep through the week as another, higher west swell builds late Tuesday into Wednesday and combines with gusty north winds under a weak thermal trough pattern.

FXUS66 KMFR 030327 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 827 PM PDT Sun Jun 2 2024

DISCUSSION
RADAR imagery is showing precipitation moving across portions of southern Oregon with a few showers across northern California. This precipitation is part of a frontal boundary which will move across the area tonight. This front will provide some wetting rains to many areas west of the Cascades and breezy winds east of the Cascades. Conditions still look on track for strong winds for portions of Lake County where a wind advisory remains in effect. Please see the NPWMFR for more details. For details on the the forecast, please see the previous discussion below. -Schaaf



AVIATION
02/00Z TAFs...A strong front by June standards is pushing inland this evening, bringing moderate to heavy rain along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin. IFR/LIFR conditions are occurring with this heavy precipitation along the coast, while VFR conditions with widespread terrain obscurations are occurring elsewhere. As this front pushes eastward, expect overall lowering conditions for areas west of the Cascades with MVFR ceilings becoming common after 06-12z. Gusty winds will persist east of the Cascades and across the higher terrain. /BR-y



MARINE
Updated 800 PM Sunday, June 1, 2024...Gusty south to southwest winds will persist through tonight, though will gradually weaken as the front pushes onshore this evening. With winds easing, seas will become less steep as the wind driven component no longer exists, but seas will remain steep as a 8 to 10 foot west swell moves into the waters late tonight into Monday. Seas will likely remain hazardous to small craft through Tuesday as southerly winds briefly increase again ahead of another, weaker, cold front.

Another west swell around 10 to 12 ft at 14 to 15 seconds will build into the waters late Tuesday into Wednesday and combine with some stronger northerly winds on Wednesday and Thursday as weak thermal trough develops. Overall, conditions hazardous to small craft will likely continue through the week. -Smith/BR-y



PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 221 PM PDT Sun Jun 2 2024/

SHORT TERM
Through Wednesday morning
A warm front is bringing light, steady showers across areas west of the Cascades this afternoon. Amounts have been light so far, with Brookings getting 0.25 inches of rainfall and other coastal areas at 0.1 inches or less. Roseburg has gotten a couple hundreths of an inch, and sidewalks are wet in Medford. Radar shows that the Cascades are blocking anything substantial from traveling farther eastward.
Overall, the coast and the Cascades will get 0.33 to 0.5 inches of rainfall from this first front

A trailing cold front will bring more substantial precipitation this evening into Monday morning thanks to a plume of moisture from an atmospheric river. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected along the Oregon coast, coastal ranges, and the Cascades.
NBM outcomes show areas north of Gold Beach getting 0.15 to 0.25 inches per hour through this evening and areas around Brookings getting 0.4 to 0.5 inches of rainfall per hour from near midnight and into Monday morning. The Cascades will also be seeing rainfall rates of 0.25 to 0.33 inches per hour from this evening into tomorrow morning. While these rainfall rates don't meet any hazard criteria, anything that impacts nighttime driving conditions is noteworthy. Slick roads from layers of water or from oils brought to the surface are possible hazards and are worth being aware of. Urban ponding is also a possibility, especially in areas with poor drainage or accumulated debris. Some amount of rainfall is expected across the area, but in much lower and generally non-impactful amounts.

Elevated and gusty winds are expected for areas east of the Cascades early Monday morning into Monday afternoon, with gusts likely (40- 60%) to exceed 40 mph over higher terrain. A Wind Advisory is in place for parts of Lake County expected to see the strongest winds, including the Winter Rim, Christmas Valley, and areas east of Adel.
This Advisory is in place from 11 PM tonight through Monday at 5 PM. Please see NPWMFR for more details.

Conditions start to calm on Tuesday under zonal flow aloft. Slight precipitation chances (10-30%) will linger over the coast north of Cape Blanco. Inland temperatures will jump quickly, with west side valleys forecast to reach the low to mid 80s and areas east of the Cascades will be in the mid to high 70s. Increasing temperatures will continue into the long-term forecast. -TAD

LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday

BY Wednesday morning, upper level ridging will have built in over the western half of the country, bringing an end to the slight chance of showers over the northern portions of the area. By Wednesday evening, however, the ridge will shift slightly to the east, with the main ridge axis extending north along the Rocky Mountains from Mexico. Meanwhile, a closed low is expected to develop just west of Baja California, creating a conduit for warm, moist air to feed north from the tropics and into portions of southern Oregon and far northern California. This pattern is then forecast to remain relatively similar through the rest of the week and into the week, before breaking down under pressure form the next approaching trough over the weekend.

All of this will result in a very warm forecast for the area, with inland high temperatures of around 15 to 20 degrees above normal for early June. Some of our warmer spots, such as the Rogue Valley and the valleys of Siskiyou County, may even touch on the triple digits Friday and/or Saturday. Most coastal areas will be warm as well, although not quite as warm as the inland areas, with the exception of a very warm Bookings, where a Chetco effect is expected to develop along with the thermal trough, and high 80s or low 90s are quite possible Wednesday and Thursday. One thing could significantly limit how hot highs will be late in the week: clouds.

With the moist inflow form the south, we will also be concerned with a daily threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms, or even overnight thunderstorms, as some models suggest and the pattern would support. The main area of concern for convection will be northern California and areas along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be most abundant and lifting mechanisms will be strongest, but we can not rule out a stray storm or two making it over to the West Side. Wherever the storms may be, clouds are likely to spread over much of the area, and these will be the wild card in terms of how high the highs get throughout the rest of the week.

Late this weekend or early next week, another trough approaches the area from the west, putting pressure on the ridge and Baja low, shifting them to the east. However, the exact nature of this trough is very uncertain, with a wide range of possibilities across the model suites. There does seem to be two major possibilities. The first would be a trough that simply replaces the previous one off of Baja, while the ridge remains in control overhead, and this would result in continued warmth and keep us under threat of convection.
The other solution has the trough arriving later, but fulling eroding the ridge, allowing for a brief cooling trend and reducing the threat of convection, at least temporarily. Hopefully the model suites can come to a better consensus on the forecast, but this may take several cycles given the known difficulty models have with closed low scenarios. -BPN

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT Monday for ORZ031.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Reedsport
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Sun -- 03:09 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:01 AM PDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:36 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:54 AM PDT     4.73 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:32 PM PDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:47 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:52 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:51 PM PDT     7.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Florence
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Sun -- 03:09 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:35 AM PDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:35 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:27 AM PDT     4.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:06 PM PDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:53 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:24 PM PDT     6.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon, Tide feet

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