Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Parc, NY
June 5, 2024 10:24 PM EDT (02:24 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:07 AM Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 4:01 AM Moonset 8:15 PM |
SLZ024 Expires:202406060330;;507182 Fzus61 Kbuf 052002 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 402 pm edt Wed jun 5 2024
slz022-024-060330- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 402 pm edt Wed jun 5 2024
Tonight - South winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms late.
Thursday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers.
Friday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely.
Friday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers.
Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers.
Sunday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Showers.
Monday - West winds 10 knots or less. Showers likely.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 402 pm edt Wed jun 5 2024
slz022-024-060330- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 402 pm edt Wed jun 5 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
SLZ005
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 052347 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 747 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
After a very warm and more humid day, we will see a lull in showers tonight before more widespread showers arrive on Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially late in the day. More cloud cover will keep temperatures from being less hot than recent days with highs mainly in the 70s to low 80s. Unsettled and cooler weather remains anticipated Friday through the weekend, with showers finally becoming less numerous after Monday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 735 PM EDT Wednesday...Forecast remains largely on track so only made minor changes to bring it up to date. Despite 1500-2000 J/kg of surface based CAPE across the region, the poor mid-level lapse rates meant that updrafts have had a tough time reaching the LFC. And unsurprisingly, storms that looked somewhat decent across the Tug Hill Plateau largely fizzled out as they crossed into our CWA So a quiet evening is in store with warm and humid conditions.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Our trend towards more active weather continues through this period, capped by the passage of a weak cold front that will help organize heavy rain showers late Thursday.
For the rest of today, 500 millibar analysis shows a ridge axis continuing to sit over the St. Lawrence Valley with northwest flow aloft dropping into Vermont. In between, convergence in the northern Adirondacks along with the daytime heating boosting instability has supported frequent thunderstorm development.
These storms will continue to have a tough time sustaining themselves as mid-level lapse rates remain limited by some warming aloft. In northeastern Vermont, the potential for thunderstorms remains, but it appears the preferential instability axis will remain to the east in New Hampshire. So overall, think we're looking pretty quiet areawide with PoPs dwindling through 8 PM.
After that time, any showers with a slight chance of thunder will become focused west of the Adirondacks as the incoming upper trough begins to support scattered to numerous showers. So a general increase in PoPs through daybreak looks reasonable.
The air mass looks rather juiced with regards to the parameters for heavy rainfall, as we see deep warm cloud depths above 11,000 feet, PWAT near 1.75", and high relative humidity through the troposphere. Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms with skinny CAPE profiles will overspread the region during the morning. Mostly cloudy skies will tend to linger through the day given the abundant moisture and upper level divergence in our region.
Ahead of a cold front, thunderstorms will likely develop towards the evening hours. The very moist environment could support a threat of localized wind damage associated with wet microbursts if we had better heating, especially given favorable timing of the cold front, especially in northern New York. It looks like our region will stay just north of the system's warm sector. The Storm Prediction Center marginal risk of severe thunderstorms is likewise just to our south where the best overlap of shear and instability is expected. Reasonable high end precipitation amounts exceeding 2 inches in localized areas is expected, which could result in an instance of flash flooding if it falls in a particularly poor drainage location.
Overnight showers may be slow to depart from central and eastern Vermont while areas to the west temporarily dry out. Winds will tend to remain southerly through the period, with a shift from southeasterly to southwesterly generally expected behind the front.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 327 PM EDT Wednesday...The cold front will be exiting Northeast Vermont Friday morning and it may cause some showers to linger there to around mid-morning. Behind the front, temperatures aloft will cool quite quickly as an upper level-low enters the region. Diurnal heating at the surface will destabilize the atmosphere and numerous showers will develop in the afternoon. There may be a few embedded thunderstorms, but the vast majority of the showers should not contain any lightning. As diurnal heating wanes overnight, the showers will become much more isolated. Highs on Friday will be in the 70s to around 80 but the humidity will be falling during the day, as dew points be lowering through the 50s. Temperatures Friday night will fall back into the 50s and upper 40s. The daytime temperature trend will not be completely diurnal as the temperatures will fall as the showers pass overhead and then rise quickly after they move out.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 327 PM EDT Wednesday...The upper level low will remain in place through the weekend and into the start of next week. Overall, there will be scattered to numerous showers during the day and drier weather overnight. A few shortwaves will be pivoting around the low and increase the coverage of the showers as they move through. They will also provide enough forcing to keep the showers going at night when they move through. There is still very little model consensus on the exact timing of these, but regardless, there will be on and off showers during this period. There are hints that the upper-level low may move out quicker than previously forecast. The GFS and Euro have it pass to the east by Tuesday, but some of their ensembles keep it into mid- week. Therefore, lowered PoPS a bit in the beginning and middle of next week. Temperatures during this period will be slightly below normal to right around normal. Once the low moves out, temperatures will climb again.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 00Z Friday...Shower activity has come to an end early this evening with VFR conditions largely prevailing across all terminals through 10Z. Winds generally are out of the south or southwest at 5-10 kt, with 15-20 kt gusts possible across KMSS, KBTV and KRUT. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase from 06-12z Thursday from west to east, but aside from brief reduction of visibilities to MVFR threshold, VFR conditions should prevail. More widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive between 18-23z Thursday, with frequent lightning and locally strong wind gusts possible along with MVFR to IFR conditions.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
CLIMATE
Based on the current forecast, daily records are possible over the next three days at some climate sites.
Record high maximum temperatures are possible today, primarily at Massena. A record high minimum temperature may occur at Plattsburgh. Record daily precipitation is possible at Massena on Thursday.
Current Record High Temperatures:
June 5: KMSS: 88/1974
Current Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 5: KPBG: 65/1963
June 6: KPBG: 67/1973
Current Record Precipitation:
June 6: KMSS: 1.09/1953
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 747 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
After a very warm and more humid day, we will see a lull in showers tonight before more widespread showers arrive on Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially late in the day. More cloud cover will keep temperatures from being less hot than recent days with highs mainly in the 70s to low 80s. Unsettled and cooler weather remains anticipated Friday through the weekend, with showers finally becoming less numerous after Monday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 735 PM EDT Wednesday...Forecast remains largely on track so only made minor changes to bring it up to date. Despite 1500-2000 J/kg of surface based CAPE across the region, the poor mid-level lapse rates meant that updrafts have had a tough time reaching the LFC. And unsurprisingly, storms that looked somewhat decent across the Tug Hill Plateau largely fizzled out as they crossed into our CWA So a quiet evening is in store with warm and humid conditions.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Our trend towards more active weather continues through this period, capped by the passage of a weak cold front that will help organize heavy rain showers late Thursday.
For the rest of today, 500 millibar analysis shows a ridge axis continuing to sit over the St. Lawrence Valley with northwest flow aloft dropping into Vermont. In between, convergence in the northern Adirondacks along with the daytime heating boosting instability has supported frequent thunderstorm development.
These storms will continue to have a tough time sustaining themselves as mid-level lapse rates remain limited by some warming aloft. In northeastern Vermont, the potential for thunderstorms remains, but it appears the preferential instability axis will remain to the east in New Hampshire. So overall, think we're looking pretty quiet areawide with PoPs dwindling through 8 PM.
After that time, any showers with a slight chance of thunder will become focused west of the Adirondacks as the incoming upper trough begins to support scattered to numerous showers. So a general increase in PoPs through daybreak looks reasonable.
The air mass looks rather juiced with regards to the parameters for heavy rainfall, as we see deep warm cloud depths above 11,000 feet, PWAT near 1.75", and high relative humidity through the troposphere. Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms with skinny CAPE profiles will overspread the region during the morning. Mostly cloudy skies will tend to linger through the day given the abundant moisture and upper level divergence in our region.
Ahead of a cold front, thunderstorms will likely develop towards the evening hours. The very moist environment could support a threat of localized wind damage associated with wet microbursts if we had better heating, especially given favorable timing of the cold front, especially in northern New York. It looks like our region will stay just north of the system's warm sector. The Storm Prediction Center marginal risk of severe thunderstorms is likewise just to our south where the best overlap of shear and instability is expected. Reasonable high end precipitation amounts exceeding 2 inches in localized areas is expected, which could result in an instance of flash flooding if it falls in a particularly poor drainage location.
Overnight showers may be slow to depart from central and eastern Vermont while areas to the west temporarily dry out. Winds will tend to remain southerly through the period, with a shift from southeasterly to southwesterly generally expected behind the front.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 327 PM EDT Wednesday...The cold front will be exiting Northeast Vermont Friday morning and it may cause some showers to linger there to around mid-morning. Behind the front, temperatures aloft will cool quite quickly as an upper level-low enters the region. Diurnal heating at the surface will destabilize the atmosphere and numerous showers will develop in the afternoon. There may be a few embedded thunderstorms, but the vast majority of the showers should not contain any lightning. As diurnal heating wanes overnight, the showers will become much more isolated. Highs on Friday will be in the 70s to around 80 but the humidity will be falling during the day, as dew points be lowering through the 50s. Temperatures Friday night will fall back into the 50s and upper 40s. The daytime temperature trend will not be completely diurnal as the temperatures will fall as the showers pass overhead and then rise quickly after they move out.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 327 PM EDT Wednesday...The upper level low will remain in place through the weekend and into the start of next week. Overall, there will be scattered to numerous showers during the day and drier weather overnight. A few shortwaves will be pivoting around the low and increase the coverage of the showers as they move through. They will also provide enough forcing to keep the showers going at night when they move through. There is still very little model consensus on the exact timing of these, but regardless, there will be on and off showers during this period. There are hints that the upper-level low may move out quicker than previously forecast. The GFS and Euro have it pass to the east by Tuesday, but some of their ensembles keep it into mid- week. Therefore, lowered PoPS a bit in the beginning and middle of next week. Temperatures during this period will be slightly below normal to right around normal. Once the low moves out, temperatures will climb again.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 00Z Friday...Shower activity has come to an end early this evening with VFR conditions largely prevailing across all terminals through 10Z. Winds generally are out of the south or southwest at 5-10 kt, with 15-20 kt gusts possible across KMSS, KBTV and KRUT. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase from 06-12z Thursday from west to east, but aside from brief reduction of visibilities to MVFR threshold, VFR conditions should prevail. More widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive between 18-23z Thursday, with frequent lightning and locally strong wind gusts possible along with MVFR to IFR conditions.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
CLIMATE
Based on the current forecast, daily records are possible over the next three days at some climate sites.
Record high maximum temperatures are possible today, primarily at Massena. A record high minimum temperature may occur at Plattsburgh. Record daily precipitation is possible at Massena on Thursday.
Current Record High Temperatures:
June 5: KMSS: 88/1974
Current Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 5: KPBG: 65/1963
June 6: KPBG: 67/1973
Current Record Precipitation:
June 6: KMSS: 1.09/1953
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPBG PLATTSBURGH INTL,NY | 4 sm | 31 min | SSE 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 72°F | 63°F | 73% | 29.67 | |
| KBTV BURLINGTON INTL,VT | 20 sm | 30 min | S 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 81°F | 54°F | 39% | 29.69 | |
| KFSO FRANKLIN COUNTY STATE,VT | 24 sm | 29 min | ESE 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 75°F | 68°F | 78% | 29.69 |
Sorel
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:56 AM EDT 0.88 meters High Tide
Wed -- 03:54 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 05:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 09:07 AM EDT 0.87 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 04:15 PM EDT 0.92 meters High Tide
Wed -- 08:20 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 08:39 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 11:14 PM EDT 0.89 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:56 AM EDT 0.88 meters High Tide
Wed -- 03:54 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 05:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 09:07 AM EDT 0.87 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 04:15 PM EDT 0.92 meters High Tide
Wed -- 08:20 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 08:39 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 11:14 PM EDT 0.89 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorel, Quebec, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 0.9 |
| 2 am |
| 0.9 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
Burlington, VT,
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