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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1000 Pm Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 am edt Sunday - .
Rest of tonight - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft. Wave detail: E 6 ft at 6 seconds and N nw 1 foot at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A slight chance of showers late in the evening. A slight chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight. Sun - E winds around 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: E se 4 ft at 6 seconds and N nw 1 foot at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E se 3 ft at 5 seconds and N nw 1 foot at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Mon - E ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E ne 2 ft at 5 seconds and N nw 1 foot at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 4 seconds and N nw 1 foot at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of tstms in the evening. Showers likely through the night. A slight chance of tstms after midnight. Tue - E ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: N ne 2 ft at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Tue night and Wed - E ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - E se winds 5 to 10 kt becoming S se in the morning. Seas 2 ft or less. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - S winds around 10 kt becoming sw in the morning. Seas less than 2 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night. A slight chance of tstms after midnight.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1000 Pm Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Synopsis -
building high pressure north of the area will result in east- northeast winds, with fresh breezes persisting through much of the weekend. Hazardous conditions may impact the gulf stream waters due to elevated winds and building seas. Quick-moving showers and isolated Thunderstorms may also develop, resulting in locally enhanced winds and seas.
gulf stream hazards seas up to 4-7 feet through early Sunday morning.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jun 01, 2024 at 12 utc - .
9 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 8 nautical miles northeast of port everglades. 10 nautical miles northeast of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 020504 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 104 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 816 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The latest short range models is showing that a low level ridge of high pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic waters tonight into Sunday, as a mid to upper level through moves through South Florida. At the same time, the short range models are showing a possible coastal trough setting up over east coastal areas late tonight, due to the winds over the interior and west coast metro areas will become light and variable with winds of the Atlantic waters will remain around 20 knots from the east. There is also an increase of moisture to the region tonight, due to a mid level disturbance moves northeast from the Caribbean Sea into the Bahamas.

This weather pattern will lead to development of showers and thunderstorms over the Atlantic waters tonight which could work into the east coast metro areas especially over Broward and Miami- Dade counties. Therefore, POPs have been raised tonight into the scattered range. Rest of the South Florida should remain dry tonight.

POPs have also been increased into the likely cat across South Florida on Sunday due to the mid to upper level trough moving through the region. The focus will be over the eastern areas in the morning hours before shifting into the interior and west coast metro areas in the afternoon hours, due to the easterly steering flow pushing the activity westward through the day hours.

There could also be some heavy rainfall from any showers or thunderstorms that do develop tonight into Sunday due to the increase moisture and PWATs getting up to 1.7 to 2 inches by Sunday afternoon. There could be some heavy rainfall with any storms that do develop tonight into Sunday.

The High risk of rip currents continues for the east coast beaches of South Florida through Sunday evening along with the SCA conditions for the Atlantic waters.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are planned with this update.

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The main feature of influence in the near-term for our area will be seasonably strong sfc. high pressure currently positioned just off the coast of North Carolina. This high is supporting breezy easterly flow over the area this afternoon which will focus any afternoon thunderstorms over the gulf coast and/or the Gulf waters. It remains to be seen if a gulf breeze will even occur today given the strong synoptic gradient, however if it does materialize it would likely be the primary focus for any afternoon activity. Although low-lvl lapse rates remain steep and DCAPE values will be in excess of 1000 J/kg, weak flow aloft combined with dry mid-lvl air should generally limit convective intensity and coverage, with gusty winds being the main threat with any storms which do form. Easterly flow will persist overnight resulting in warmer overnight lows (mid to upper 70s) for the east coast compared to the interior and west coast (generally lower 70s). Additionally scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the east coast, but particularly over the Atlantic waters (where nocturnal instability will be maximized).

The western Atlantic high will shift eastward on Sunday, but still maintain easterly synoptic flow over our region, while at the mid- lvls a shortwave will dip southeast into the area. The approaching shortwave, combined with a likely greater inland progression of the Gulf breeze should result in greater coverage of showers and storms relative to today. Given the easterly regime, morning/early afternoon activity would likely be more focused near the east coast, while the stronger and more widespread activity in the mid-late afternoon period would be focused over SWFL and the Interior. High temperatures will be typical of an easterly regime ranging from the mid 80s near the immediate east coast to the low to mid 90s over Interior and SWFL.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A mid-level trough will move across the region to close out the weekend and kick off the work week with increasing moisture and the potential for showers and thunderstorms beyond the normal diurnally-driven pattern on Monday. By Tuesday, the trough axis exits into the Atlantic waters and the pattern begins to return to something more diurnally-driven with morning Atlantic showers transitioning into inland and Gulf coast showers and thunderstorms by afternoon and early evening.

The surface high will continue to linger around the region through midweek before the next frontal boundary emanating from low pressure over Canada enters the southeastern United States.
The parent low will move southeastward over the Great Lakes by late in the week. South Florida will be wedged between the stalled frontal boundary near Interstate 10 and deeper tropical moisture in the western Caribbean. The retrogression of the surface high back into the Atlantic will mean a transition to southerly to west-southwesterly flow across much of the area to close out the forecast period Saturday and Sunday.

The warm airmass combined with flow over the peninsula will mean a considerable warming trend through the week which could lead to heat illness risk climbing by late week. This will need to be monitored, along with the progress of the synoptic scale features both to the north and to the south, in case of changes which could create some major revisions to the forecast for these time periods. For now, hot and diurnally unsettled will continue to be the message for a good part of the week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the period, especially across the east coast locations. Some stronger storms may result in brief IFR ceilings and visbys. Easterly winds 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts this afternoon into early evening.

MARINE
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Fresh to strong E-NE winds will continue through tonight over the Atlantic waters before dropping below Small Craft Advisory criteria by Sunday morning. Seas will peak at 5-7 ft this afternoon over the Gulf stream, and then gradually decrease to under 5 ft by Sunday.
Showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the evening and overnight periods will remain possible the next few days.

BEACHES
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Breezy easterly flow will result in a high risk of rip currents for the east coast beaches through Sunday. The risk will begin to decrease early next week as easterly flow decreases.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 87 77 88 78 / 60 50 60 40 West Kendall 87 73 89 74 / 60 50 60 40 Opa-Locka 88 76 90 77 / 60 50 60 30 Homestead 88 76 87 77 / 60 50 60 50 Fort Lauderdale 86 77 87 78 / 60 50 60 40 N Ft Lauderdale 86 76 87 77 / 60 50 60 30 Pembroke Pines 89 77 90 77 / 60 50 60 30 West Palm Beach 87 75 88 75 / 50 50 60 30 Boca Raton 87 76 88 77 / 60 50 60 40 Naples 92 74 92 75 / 60 50 60 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ650-651- 670-671.

GM...None.

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