Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 3:09 AM   Moonset 5:44 PM

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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 658 Am Edt Tue Jun 4 2024
Today - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S this afternoon. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms this afternoon. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms, mainly in the evening. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening. Fri - W winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers in the morning. Fri night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves light chop. Sat - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sat night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 658 Am Edt Tue Jun 4 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A backdoor front will move into the area today and stall. The weak front will lift back north early Wednesday as strong cold front approaches from the west. The front will move through Friday and Friday night, with slightly cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend.

FXUS62 KMHX 041047 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 647 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
A backdoor front will move into the area today and stall. The weak front will lift back north early Wednesday as strong cold front approaches from the west. The front will move through Friday and Friday night, with slightly cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 645 AM Tue...No significant changes to the forecast as of this update. Did add in some SChc to low end Chc PoP's across our NW'rn zones given latest radar trends showing some isolated shower activity currently making its way across the area.
Otherwise, weak backdoor cold front is located to the north while weak troughing is located just off the coast and is producing some scattered shower activity across our offshore waters. Outside of this shower activity, expecting generally dry conditions this morning with partly cloudy skies.

As we get into this afternoon and evening a more typical summer like pattern sets up across the CWA today. Upper level ridging will gradually build over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic while a weak backdoor cold front gradually approaches from the north and slowly dives S'wards across the area. This front along with the seabreeze will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity today across ENC with chances quickly increasing after noon and maximizing around the 2-8 PM timeframe. Coverage starts out isolated and then becomes more scattered in nature with PoP's hanging around 30-50% mainly along the inland areas this afternoon. Temps generally get into the mid to upper 80s today.

Once again not expecting severe weather today given weak effective shear (15-25 kt) and weak forcing, though the threat is non-zero.
Despite these limiting factors, 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE would still make it possible for some stronger storms to develop with threats of heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 3 AM Tue... Once the sun sets generally expecting for any ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity to quickly weaken and dissipate across the area as instability rapidly lowers with the loss of daytime heating and forcing remains weak at best from the front. Much like the previous few evenings a few iso showers will remain possible tonight. Otherwise upper ridging centers itself over the area while weak backdoor cold front stalls over ENC. Another warm and muggy night is forecast tonight with lows once again in the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 235 AM Tue...Unsettled conditions expected through Thursday with near seasonable temps. High pressure will strengthen offshore through late week with a cold front approaching from the west. A cold front will move through Friday into Fri night, bringing drier conditions late week into the weekend. Another frontal system may impact the area early next week.

Wednesday through Thursday...The stalled frontal boundary will continue to lift back north early Wednesday with cold front approaching from the west and high pressure strengthening offshore. This will allow rich moisture (PWATs 1.75-2") to advect in from the west ahead of a potent upper level trough and strong cold front. Increasingly unsettled conditions are likely with a diurnal max in coverage each afternoon. 00z guidance trending drier for Wed, so lowered pops slightly, keeping high chances inland and low chance/sc along the immediate coast.
Greatest coverage still looks like Thursday afternoon and evening. Weak shear will limit the overall svr threat, though an isolated strong storm with gusty winds, small hail and heavy rain will be possible each day. An increase in heat and humidity is also likely as highs climb into the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon, and it will feel like 95-100 degrees for most of the area when factoring in the humidity.

Friday through Monday...Cold front looks to move through Friday into Friday night. Iso showers/storm possible Fri, but most areas will remain dry. 00z guidance shows upper troughing lingering along the east coast through the weekend, depicting drier and slightly cooler conditions across eastern NC. More comfortable airmass expected this weekend with dewpoints falling into the 50s and 60s and high temps in the 80s. Still a good amount of uncertainty early next week, with the potential for another frontal system to impact the area. Will keep sc to chance pops for now.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tue night/...
As of 645 AM Tue...As of this update partly cloudy skies and dry conditions are seen just about everywhere across ENC. The lone exception is around PGV where some iso shower activity and cloudcover is currently noted.

Predominantly VFR conditions and light winds are forecast through the TAF period. Ongoing shower activity near PGV should dissipate within the next few hours with dry conditions then forecast into early this afternoon. As we get into this afternoon, typical summertime convective pattern returns, with westerly winds in the morning backing to a southerly direction as the sea breeze advances inland. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is likely after 18z along the seabreeze and along an incoming backdoor cold front. This will bring a threat for some brief periods of sub-VFR ceilings but given inherent uncertainty in which TAF sites will see storms and lower ceilings have left just a VCTS mention in the TAFs for this afternoon after 18Z to just about 00Z. Any ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon will then quickly diminish overnight with continued VFR ceilings and vis forecast into Wed morning.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 235 AM Tue...Unsettled conditions expected this week, with best chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday.
This could bring some periods of sub-VFR conditions to the terminals. Sub-VFR cigs possible early Thu morning. A cold front will move through Fri and Fri night.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Ongoing 5-15 kt SW'rly winds and 1-2 ft seas will continue to persist through the morning hours before winds back to a more S'rly direction this afternoon as the seabreeze sets up. Winds along the northern waters may briefly become light and variable as a weak backdoor cold front moves south across the area but by this afternoon 5-10 kt SE'rly winds should pick up across this area. Winds could gusts close to 20 kts at times this afternoon behind the seabreeze. Winds will once again become SW'rly at 5-15 kts tonight as the seabreeze eventually dissipates and the previously mentioned front stalls.
Seas remain around 1-2 ft through tonight. There will once again be a chance for shower and thunderstorm activity today but most of the activity will reside over the Coastal Plain and Gulf Stream.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 235 AM Tue...Light to moderate SSW winds Wed 5-15 kt will increase to 15-20 kt late Wed afternoon and Wednesday night, becoming SW 15-25 kt Thursday. SCA conditions possible Wednesday night and Thursday. The cold front will move through Friday and Friday night, with gradient relaxing and winds becoming WSW 10-15 kt. Light to moderate NNW-WNW winds Sat 5-15 kt. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through Wednesday, building to 3-6 ft Thursday, then gradually subsiding to 2-4 ft Fri and Sat.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Tue -- 02:02 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:40 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:52 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT     2.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

Spooner Creek
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Tue -- 03:00 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:34 AM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:50 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:01 PM EDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Spooner Creek, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,