Sunrise 5:22 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 2:24 AM   Moonset 2:58 PM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 725 Pm Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W late. Seas 1 ft or less. Sun - SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Mon - SW winds around 5 kt, becoming E around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wed night - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Thu - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.Thu night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely.

ANZ300 725 Pm Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure settles over the area tonight and gradually drifts to the southeast and offshore on Sunday. A weakening disturbance moves through late Sunday night and for the first half of Monday. High pressure remains over the waters Tuesday and Wednesday before sliding offshore Wednesday evening. A series of frontal systems then approach by the end of the week.

FXUS61 KALY 020144 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 944 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Mainly clear and comfortable weather will continue into tonight. It will be partly to mostly sunny again on Sunday with a warm afternoon. Temperatures will remain fairly warm through the upcoming week. While most areas will start the week off dry, there will be an increasing threat for showers and thunderstorms by later in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
UPDATE...As of 940 PM EDT, patchy high clouds continue to stream east/southeast for areas mainly west of the Hudson River, with clouds thinning as they track farther east. Expect periods of high clouds to continue through the night, with coverage remaining greatest west of the Hudson River.

Despite the high clouds, temperatures have already dropped into the lower/mid 50s across portions of the SW Adirondacks, with generally mid 60s to lower 70s elsewhere. Given the dry air mass in place, expect min temps to drop into the 50s for most areas, except for mid/upper 40s across portions of the SW Adirondacks and some higher terrain areas of southern VT.

Patchy fog could form across portions of the upper Hudson Valley for a brief time after midnight, especially close to any bodies of water.

Otherwise, only very minor adjustments to temps/dewpoints and sky cover based on latest obs.

[PREVIOUS 343 PM EDT]
As of 343 PM EDT
Upper level ridge axis will be cresting over the forecast area this evening, before sliding eastward for tonight. Visible satellite imagery continues to show nearly completely clear skies over the region, with just a few isolated cumulus around. Some cirrus clouds can be seen upstream of the region over western New York and these will spread towards the area for this evening into tonight. Even with the thin passing high clouds, skies will be fairly clear for the overnight hours.

Deep mixing today allow for a warm afternoon with low dewpoints.
For tonight, winds will be light to calm and the dry air mass and fairly clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling.
Went a little below the blended guidance for overnight lows across the region, with low to mid 50s for most spots (some upper 40s in the highest terrain).

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Ridging will be slowly drifting eastward through the day on Sunday. Although skies will start off fairly clear, increasing amounts of cloud cover can be expected through the day. With good mixing and 850 hpa temps around +12 to +14 C, it will be another warm day, with valley highs well into the 80s. With the good mixing, it won't be humid as well (although dewpoints may be slightly higher than Saturday with values in the upper 40s to low 50s).

While most of Sunday will be dry, there will be a slight to low chance for a brief shower or sprinkle for Sunday evening into Sunday night, as an upper level disturbance starts to approach from the west. This feature will be falling apart and fairly moisture starved, so most areas will be dry, but a brief shower can't be ruled out for southern areas for Sunday night.
Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with lows in the 50s.

Upper level ridging will become re-established over the area for Monday into Monday night. With continued warm temps aloft and high heights in place, it will be another warm afternoon with highs well into the 80s on Monday. Dewpoints will be a little higher than the weekend, but still comfortable with values in the mid 50s. Skies should be fairly sunny on Monday with little cloud cover thanks to nearby high pressure. Clear and dry weather will continue into Monday night with the high pressure remaining in place and temps down into the 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Warm weather will continue through the long term period with the threat for showers and thunderstorms starting to return.

The long term period should start off dry for Tuesday, but an isolated afternoon shower or t-storm can't be ruled out by Wednesday as moisture starts returning to the region. Forcing should be limited through mid week, which will keep the threat for precip fairly low. Temps will be very warm thanks to the continued warm temps aloft, with mid 80s both days. Tuesday should be mainly sunny, but some clouds will start to increase by Wednesday.

As an upper level disturbance starts approaching from the Great Lakes, there will be a better chance for showers and thunderstorms for Thursday through Saturday. The upper level feature looks to close off over the Great Lakes, making it slowly sit and spin to our west, while a surface boundary makes it way across the area (probably for Thursday, which is when POPs are currently highest). With a warm and humid air mass in place, both showers and t-storms will be possible, especially in the diurnally favored afternoon and evening hours. Too early to say if any storms will be strong at this point due to uncertainty regarding the exact amounts of instability and shear that will be in place. Will go with high chance to likely POPs during this time period. Temps will be warm (although not quite as high as earlier in the week due to the clouds and precip)
with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 and lows in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 00Z/Mon, mainly VFR conditions expected with increasing high clouds tonight/Sunday morning, with some mid level clouds increasing later Sunday afternoon.

The only caveat could be some patchy ground fog forming at KGFL for a brief time tonight, generally between 07Z-10Z/Sun. During this time period, can not rule out a few brief periods of MVFR/IFR Vsbys.

Winds will become light/variable shortly after sunset through Sunday morning, then will become southwest to south at 5-10 KT by afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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New Hamburg
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Sat -- 02:58 PM EDT     Moonset
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