Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saugerties, NY
June 17, 2024 6:03 PM EDT (22:03 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:18 AM Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 4:25 PM Moonset 2:12 AM |
ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 350 Pm Edt Mon Jun 17 2024
Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds.
Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds.
Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds.
Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds.
Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds.
Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 350 Pm Edt Mon Jun 17 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure stretching in from the western atlantic remains in control through late this week. A cold front otherwise stalls north of the area late Friday and Saturday.
FXUS61 KALY 172003 AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 403 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front will move north of the region early tonight with variable clouds and milder temperatures. The heat and humidity will increase tomorrow reaching dangerous levels for many areas across eastern New York and western New England. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon into the early evening will be common during the week, as a cold front may bring a more widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday with perhaps a brief reduction of the heat on the weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
As of 400 PM EDT...A warm front continues to lift north and east of northern NY and western New England this afternoon. A sfc trough and mid-level short-wave is moving towards and across the eastern Great Lakes Region into western PA and NY. Some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may increase over w-central NY.
A few of the showers/t-storms may reach the western Mohawk Valley/western Adirondacks in the early evening. We added a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Most of the CAMS have these dying out before midnight.
The skies will be variably cloudy early and then will trend to mostly clear in the early morning hours. Low and mid level warm advection will continue with the ridging building in from the south. Lows will be much more milder than previous night with upper 50s to lower 60s over the higher terrain and mid to upper 60s in the valley areas.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
**Heat Advisories continue from noon Tuesday through 8 PM Thursday for all of eastern New York and western New England**
Tomorrow...the heat and humidity begin to really ramp up as the latest NAEFS/GEFS indicate H500/H700 height anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEVs above normal over eastern NY and western New England.
H850 temps will also increase to +1 to 2+ STDEVS above normal.
Sfc dewpoints will rise into the 60s to around 70F. Max temps will run close to 15 degrees above normal with a blend of ECM MOS/NBM values yielding lower to mid 90s below roughly 1000 ft in elevation and mid 80s to about 90s above it.
Dangerous levels of heat and humidity levels equate to solid heat advisories in the valleys with heat indices of 95F to 104.
Based on the previous collaboration and abundance of precaution we will continue them over the southern Dacks, eastern Catskills and western New England highest terrain though values will be mainly in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
A weak disturbance coupled with some diurnal heated prompted at least isolated or a slight chance of thunderstorms to the forecast from the eastern Catskills, Capital District and Berkshires north and east.
These isolated showers and thunderstorms should diminish early in the evening with a balmy night expected. Where any isolated convection occurs some patchy fog may follow. Lows will be in the lower/mid 60s to lower 70s. The heat head lines remain up at night due to the impacts on communities noted in the recent research studies.
The H500 closed anticyclone settles in over the Mid Atlantic Region into the Northeast on Wednesday with 597-598 decameter heights over the forecast areas. H850 temps will be in the +18C to +21 range. Max temps have only nominally lowered and we are expect some mid and spotty upper 90s in the major valleys and 80s to 90s over the higher terrain. Heat indices are mainly in the lower 90s to lower 100s. A few isolated spots may reach 105 degrees in the Capital Region/Upper Hudson River Valley.
Coverage was not widespread enough for an Excessive Heat Watch.
Some pop up isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over and near the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks.
However, the atmosphere is very capped.
Any isolated convection should diminish in the early evening with a very muggy night expected. Lows will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Heat head lines remain up overnight with the vulnerable communities.
Thursday could be interesting day with the ridging perhaps weakening especially north and west of the I-90 corridor. A weak disturbance or sfc trough could focus some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. We have slight to low chance PoPs from the Capital Region...
Berkshires...southern VT and the eastern Catskills north and west. Instability will be moderate to large with PWATS above normal. Some locally heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible with any convection. Max temps at record levels will be possible for the opening of the Summer Solstice at 450 pm EDT with lower to upper 90s below 1000 ft in elevations and 80s to around 90F above it. Heat indices in the lower 90s to 105 will be possible.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The extended begins with the forecast area still being impacted the by the anomalous hot and humid air mass for early summer.
The ridge along the East Coast remains in place with a closed H500 anticyclone near the Delmarva Region. H500 heights will continue to be +1 to +3 STDEVs above normal based on the latest NAEFS. However, the mid level flow begins to flatten and become more zonal aloft over NY and New England on FRI. A weak cold front begins to sag close to eastern NY and western New England.
A muggy night with lows in the 60s to lower 70s is expected after diminishing isolated showers and thunderstorms. Max temps may still reach the upper 80s to mid 90s in the valleys on FRI with the warmest temps south and east of the Capital District over the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and NW CT. Some upper 70s to mid and upper 80s will be possible over the higher terrain. The frontal boundary and a weak mid level disturbance will bring good chances for showers and thunderstorms. We may need some additional or extended heat advisories from the Capital District south and east with heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100F. Later shifts can assess further.
Friday night into Saturday...The weak cold front may stall and lift back northward as warm front bringing renewed chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms late Saturday. High pressure to the north may briefly build in but the majority of the ensembles and medium range guidance keeps it unsettled. After lows in the 60s with perhaps some upper 50s over the Adirondack Park. The ECMWF ensembles and the latest operational run does show this minor decrease in temps and humidity heading into the weekend. Temps were accepted close to the NBM with mid and upper 80s in the lower elevations with perhaps some 90F readings in the mid Hudson Valley and 70s to lower/mid 80s over the higher terrain. Heat indices for most of the region should fall below 95F but still be in the lower 90s from the Tri Cities south and east.
Saturday night into early next week...The front lifts back north of the region a warm front with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sat night. However, a stronger short-wave trough and cold front approaches for late Sunday afternoon into Monday with a high chance to likely threat for showers and thunderstorms with better synoptic forcing. Temps may be above normal still on Sunday, but cool closer to normal by early next week with 70s to lower and mid 80s. The heat wave has a good chance of subsiding late in the weekend into early next week. Relief will be eventually on the way.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 18z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF period. Periods of high level clouds will move through, with otherwise just FEW-SCT mid level clouds during diurnally favored times of the daylight hours. There is a slight chance of a rogue SHRA/TSRA, but the probability is too low to mention in the TAFs (less than 20 percent).
Winds will be south-southwest around 5-10 kt with gust around 15 kt through the rest of today, decreasing to 5 kt or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be south-southwest around 5-8 kt.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:
Tuesday June 18: Albany - 97 (1957, 2018)
Glens Falls - 95 (1907)
Poughkeepsie - 94 (2018)
Wednesday June 19: Albany - 94 (1995)
Glens Falls - 97 (1995)
Poughkeepsie - 92 (1941, 1943, 1993, 2016)
Thursday June 20: Albany - 97 (1953)
Glens Falls - 97 (1923)
Poughkeepsie - 96 (2012)
Friday June 21: Albany - 97 (1938)
Glens Falls - 96 (2012)
Poughkeepsie - 97 (1949)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ013>015.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 403 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front will move north of the region early tonight with variable clouds and milder temperatures. The heat and humidity will increase tomorrow reaching dangerous levels for many areas across eastern New York and western New England. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon into the early evening will be common during the week, as a cold front may bring a more widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday with perhaps a brief reduction of the heat on the weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
As of 400 PM EDT...A warm front continues to lift north and east of northern NY and western New England this afternoon. A sfc trough and mid-level short-wave is moving towards and across the eastern Great Lakes Region into western PA and NY. Some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may increase over w-central NY.
A few of the showers/t-storms may reach the western Mohawk Valley/western Adirondacks in the early evening. We added a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Most of the CAMS have these dying out before midnight.
The skies will be variably cloudy early and then will trend to mostly clear in the early morning hours. Low and mid level warm advection will continue with the ridging building in from the south. Lows will be much more milder than previous night with upper 50s to lower 60s over the higher terrain and mid to upper 60s in the valley areas.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
**Heat Advisories continue from noon Tuesday through 8 PM Thursday for all of eastern New York and western New England**
Tomorrow...the heat and humidity begin to really ramp up as the latest NAEFS/GEFS indicate H500/H700 height anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEVs above normal over eastern NY and western New England.
H850 temps will also increase to +1 to 2+ STDEVS above normal.
Sfc dewpoints will rise into the 60s to around 70F. Max temps will run close to 15 degrees above normal with a blend of ECM MOS/NBM values yielding lower to mid 90s below roughly 1000 ft in elevation and mid 80s to about 90s above it.
Dangerous levels of heat and humidity levels equate to solid heat advisories in the valleys with heat indices of 95F to 104.
Based on the previous collaboration and abundance of precaution we will continue them over the southern Dacks, eastern Catskills and western New England highest terrain though values will be mainly in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
A weak disturbance coupled with some diurnal heated prompted at least isolated or a slight chance of thunderstorms to the forecast from the eastern Catskills, Capital District and Berkshires north and east.
These isolated showers and thunderstorms should diminish early in the evening with a balmy night expected. Where any isolated convection occurs some patchy fog may follow. Lows will be in the lower/mid 60s to lower 70s. The heat head lines remain up at night due to the impacts on communities noted in the recent research studies.
The H500 closed anticyclone settles in over the Mid Atlantic Region into the Northeast on Wednesday with 597-598 decameter heights over the forecast areas. H850 temps will be in the +18C to +21 range. Max temps have only nominally lowered and we are expect some mid and spotty upper 90s in the major valleys and 80s to 90s over the higher terrain. Heat indices are mainly in the lower 90s to lower 100s. A few isolated spots may reach 105 degrees in the Capital Region/Upper Hudson River Valley.
Coverage was not widespread enough for an Excessive Heat Watch.
Some pop up isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over and near the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks.
However, the atmosphere is very capped.
Any isolated convection should diminish in the early evening with a very muggy night expected. Lows will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Heat head lines remain up overnight with the vulnerable communities.
Thursday could be interesting day with the ridging perhaps weakening especially north and west of the I-90 corridor. A weak disturbance or sfc trough could focus some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. We have slight to low chance PoPs from the Capital Region...
Berkshires...southern VT and the eastern Catskills north and west. Instability will be moderate to large with PWATS above normal. Some locally heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible with any convection. Max temps at record levels will be possible for the opening of the Summer Solstice at 450 pm EDT with lower to upper 90s below 1000 ft in elevations and 80s to around 90F above it. Heat indices in the lower 90s to 105 will be possible.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The extended begins with the forecast area still being impacted the by the anomalous hot and humid air mass for early summer.
The ridge along the East Coast remains in place with a closed H500 anticyclone near the Delmarva Region. H500 heights will continue to be +1 to +3 STDEVs above normal based on the latest NAEFS. However, the mid level flow begins to flatten and become more zonal aloft over NY and New England on FRI. A weak cold front begins to sag close to eastern NY and western New England.
A muggy night with lows in the 60s to lower 70s is expected after diminishing isolated showers and thunderstorms. Max temps may still reach the upper 80s to mid 90s in the valleys on FRI with the warmest temps south and east of the Capital District over the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and NW CT. Some upper 70s to mid and upper 80s will be possible over the higher terrain. The frontal boundary and a weak mid level disturbance will bring good chances for showers and thunderstorms. We may need some additional or extended heat advisories from the Capital District south and east with heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100F. Later shifts can assess further.
Friday night into Saturday...The weak cold front may stall and lift back northward as warm front bringing renewed chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms late Saturday. High pressure to the north may briefly build in but the majority of the ensembles and medium range guidance keeps it unsettled. After lows in the 60s with perhaps some upper 50s over the Adirondack Park. The ECMWF ensembles and the latest operational run does show this minor decrease in temps and humidity heading into the weekend. Temps were accepted close to the NBM with mid and upper 80s in the lower elevations with perhaps some 90F readings in the mid Hudson Valley and 70s to lower/mid 80s over the higher terrain. Heat indices for most of the region should fall below 95F but still be in the lower 90s from the Tri Cities south and east.
Saturday night into early next week...The front lifts back north of the region a warm front with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sat night. However, a stronger short-wave trough and cold front approaches for late Sunday afternoon into Monday with a high chance to likely threat for showers and thunderstorms with better synoptic forcing. Temps may be above normal still on Sunday, but cool closer to normal by early next week with 70s to lower and mid 80s. The heat wave has a good chance of subsiding late in the weekend into early next week. Relief will be eventually on the way.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 18z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF period. Periods of high level clouds will move through, with otherwise just FEW-SCT mid level clouds during diurnally favored times of the daylight hours. There is a slight chance of a rogue SHRA/TSRA, but the probability is too low to mention in the TAFs (less than 20 percent).
Winds will be south-southwest around 5-10 kt with gust around 15 kt through the rest of today, decreasing to 5 kt or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be south-southwest around 5-8 kt.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:
Tuesday June 18: Albany - 97 (1957, 2018)
Glens Falls - 95 (1907)
Poughkeepsie - 94 (2018)
Wednesday June 19: Albany - 94 (1995)
Glens Falls - 97 (1995)
Poughkeepsie - 92 (1941, 1943, 1993, 2016)
Thursday June 20: Albany - 97 (1953)
Glens Falls - 97 (1923)
Poughkeepsie - 96 (2012)
Friday June 21: Albany - 97 (1938)
Glens Falls - 96 (2012)
Poughkeepsie - 97 (1949)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ013>015.
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Wind History graph: POU
(wind in knots)Tivoli
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:12 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:19 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT 0.95 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:13 AM EDT 3.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:25 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 05:44 PM EDT 0.76 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:34 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 11:47 PM EDT 4.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:12 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:19 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT 0.95 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:13 AM EDT 3.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:25 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 05:44 PM EDT 0.76 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:34 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 11:47 PM EDT 4.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Tivoli, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.8 |
| 1 am |
| 3.2 |
| 2 am |
| 2.6 |
| 3 am |
| 2 |
| 4 am |
| 1.5 |
| 5 am |
| 1.1 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.5 |
| 8 am |
| 2.2 |
| 9 am |
| 2.8 |
| 10 am |
| 3.1 |
| 11 am |
| 3.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 3 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 4 |
Kingston Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:13 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:10 AM EDT 0.91 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:20 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM EDT 3.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:24 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 05:14 PM EDT 0.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:33 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 11:17 PM EDT 3.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:13 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:10 AM EDT 0.91 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:20 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM EDT 3.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:24 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 05:14 PM EDT 0.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:33 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 11:17 PM EDT 3.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.3 |
| 1 am |
| 2.7 |
| 2 am |
| 2.1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.6 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.7 |
| 8 am |
| 2.4 |
| 9 am |
| 2.8 |
| 10 am |
| 3.1 |
| 11 am |
| 3.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.9 |
Albany, NY,
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