Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Colonial Heights, VA
June 17, 2024 12:52 PM EDT (16:52 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:47 AM Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 3:30 PM Moonset 1:34 AM |
ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 954 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2024
Today - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves around 1 foot, increasing to 1 to 2 ft late.
Tonight - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft, diminishing to around 1 foot after midnight.
Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Thu night - SE winds 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
ANZ600 954 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure will remain offshore with generally benign marine conditions expected through the week.
high pressure will remain offshore with generally benign marine conditions expected through the week.
FXUS61 KAKQ 171605 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1205 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure drifts off the New England coast through midweek.
A very warm and dry pattern then looks to take hold for much of the week ahead. Heat peaks this weekend with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1205 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- A few degrees warmer today as ridging builds over the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
No needed changes to the going forecast at midday. Latest analysis reveals 1024mb high pressure is centered just offshore of the New England coast, with the surface ridge axis extending S-SW across the lower mid-Atlantic coast. Aloft, the well-advertised upper ridge centered just to our south will continue to strengthen today. Late morning visible satellite shows some scattered to broken mid level clouds over the I-95 corridor, with some isolated showers over the far NW portion of the commonwealth.
Still on track for a partly to mostly sunny afternoon (greater cloud cover inland) as some moisture is noted at the top of the mixed layer on forecast soundings. A weak lee trough will set up just east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon and despite large scale subsidence associated with the strengthening upper ridge, we could see a rogue thunderstorm or two mainly to our NW sneak into the far west or northwest counties (US-15 corridor) this afternoon. Past few runs of CAMs don't inspire much confidence with weak steering flow, but will maintain 20% rain chance for now. Afternoon highs in the low 90s for areas along and west of I-95 with upper 80s to the east and mid 80s along the coast.
Dew points will be higher than we have seen in recent day with mid 60s likely for the Piedmont with low 60s elsewhere during peak mixing this afternoon. Any shower/storm activity will wane quickly this evening with overnight lows generally in the mid 60s (highest in the Piedmont and near the coast where low level moisture will be more robust).
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Continued warm and dry Tuesday and Wednesday as the core of the upper ridge lifts just north of the local area.
Surface high pressure remains anchored offshore Tuesday and Wednesday with low level onshore flow keeping an atypical temperature pattern in place. Highs each day will be in the upper 80s SE (mid 80s at near the coast) to the low 90s NW. Dew points will remain in the 60s which will keep heat index values very near the air temp. Clouds, outside of typical afternoon cumulus, will be hard to come by with strong ridging aloft. Low temps will fall into the 60s each night with low 70s possible along the coast.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Very warm and dry weather persists through late week. However, humidity levels remain in check through Friday.
- Hottest days look to be Saturday and Sunday, with humidity also recovering closer to seasonal levels during this period.
The anomalously strong upper heat ridge continues to build, as it drifts north along the eastern seaboard, peaking at around ~600 dam over the northeast Friday morning. This will maintain the atypical temperature pattern Thursday and Friday, with slightly warmer highs to the north, as E-SE winds keep coastal areas into the Hampton Roads/N OBX area slightly cooler. High temps Thursday will be in the low 90s inland with mid and upper 80s closer to the water.
And, as surface dew points look to remain in the 60s, we likely will not see heat indices in the triple digits. Inland temps rise into the mid 90s for the NW half of the area on Friday with low 90s to the SE (upper 80s near the immediate coast). Dew points look to mix out into the 60s once again so max heat index values will only be a degree or two higher than the air temperature.
Looking ahead, the hottest part of the week still looks to be Saturday and Sunday as high pressure slides offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast into the western Atlantic. A more typical summertime Bermuda Ridge pattern allows heat to build further Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 90s, as dewpoints/PW values recover back toward climo normal values. EPS/GEFS probs and thickness schemes from both the ECMWF and GFS favoring more widespread upper 90s and Max Heat Indices creeping into the upper 90s to low 100s on Saturday and potentially 105+ in spots on Sunday. Overnight lows stay in the 60s Thursday night but increase toward 70 degrees Friday night. Will add a few degrees to lows each night this weekend with mid 70s likely by Sunday morning.
A low chance for thunderstorms may materialize by Sunday, as a weak lee trough sets up and low level moisture increases.
AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 645 AM EDT Monday...
High pressure is centered off the coast as of 12z. VFR with SCT-BKN mid clouds with bases of 6-8kft across the region. The wind is generally light and variable, becoming S 5-10 kt inland and SE 5-10 kt along the coast. VFR and dry conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Mostly sunny today with FEW-SCT afternoon CU.
Dry with VFR conditions expected to prevail through Friday as high pressure remains centered off the coast.
MARINE
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay from this afternoon through the evening for a brief period of 20 to 25 knot wind gusts out of the S-SE.
- A summerlike and relatively benign pattern remains in place across the waters for much of the remainder of the week.
High pressure that is now offshore will remain centered north of Bermuda for much of the week. Winds are S-SE at ~10 kt early this morning, but will increase again later today. With a slightly tighter pressure gradient this aftn/evening when compared to yesterday, am expecting a brief (2-4 hour) period of 15-20 kt S-SE winds (w/ gusts to 20-25 kt) between 3 PM and midnight (earlier S/later N) on the bay. Local wind probabilities now show about a 50- 75 percent chc of sustained 18kt+ winds across the bay. Therefore, went ahead and issued SCAs for all Ches Bay zones from this aftn through late this evening. Otherwise, the pattern becomes quite stagnant through the remainder of the week with southerly winds of 5- 15 kt with the strongest winds in the afternoon and evening hours.
Seas generally 2 to 3 feet in the ocean and waves 1-3 ft in the bay through Wed. Seas may increase to ~4 feet on Thursday and Friday as some SE swell moves toward the area.
Will continue with the moderate rip current risk for all beaches today. Flow becomes more southerly on Tuesday which will keep the moderate rip current risk confined to the northern beaches. By late week, there is a hint of a SE swell that may push seas to ~4 ft. If this happens, there will be elevated rip current risks by Thu/Fri.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 634.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1205 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure drifts off the New England coast through midweek.
A very warm and dry pattern then looks to take hold for much of the week ahead. Heat peaks this weekend with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1205 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- A few degrees warmer today as ridging builds over the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
No needed changes to the going forecast at midday. Latest analysis reveals 1024mb high pressure is centered just offshore of the New England coast, with the surface ridge axis extending S-SW across the lower mid-Atlantic coast. Aloft, the well-advertised upper ridge centered just to our south will continue to strengthen today. Late morning visible satellite shows some scattered to broken mid level clouds over the I-95 corridor, with some isolated showers over the far NW portion of the commonwealth.
Still on track for a partly to mostly sunny afternoon (greater cloud cover inland) as some moisture is noted at the top of the mixed layer on forecast soundings. A weak lee trough will set up just east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon and despite large scale subsidence associated with the strengthening upper ridge, we could see a rogue thunderstorm or two mainly to our NW sneak into the far west or northwest counties (US-15 corridor) this afternoon. Past few runs of CAMs don't inspire much confidence with weak steering flow, but will maintain 20% rain chance for now. Afternoon highs in the low 90s for areas along and west of I-95 with upper 80s to the east and mid 80s along the coast.
Dew points will be higher than we have seen in recent day with mid 60s likely for the Piedmont with low 60s elsewhere during peak mixing this afternoon. Any shower/storm activity will wane quickly this evening with overnight lows generally in the mid 60s (highest in the Piedmont and near the coast where low level moisture will be more robust).
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Continued warm and dry Tuesday and Wednesday as the core of the upper ridge lifts just north of the local area.
Surface high pressure remains anchored offshore Tuesday and Wednesday with low level onshore flow keeping an atypical temperature pattern in place. Highs each day will be in the upper 80s SE (mid 80s at near the coast) to the low 90s NW. Dew points will remain in the 60s which will keep heat index values very near the air temp. Clouds, outside of typical afternoon cumulus, will be hard to come by with strong ridging aloft. Low temps will fall into the 60s each night with low 70s possible along the coast.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Very warm and dry weather persists through late week. However, humidity levels remain in check through Friday.
- Hottest days look to be Saturday and Sunday, with humidity also recovering closer to seasonal levels during this period.
The anomalously strong upper heat ridge continues to build, as it drifts north along the eastern seaboard, peaking at around ~600 dam over the northeast Friday morning. This will maintain the atypical temperature pattern Thursday and Friday, with slightly warmer highs to the north, as E-SE winds keep coastal areas into the Hampton Roads/N OBX area slightly cooler. High temps Thursday will be in the low 90s inland with mid and upper 80s closer to the water.
And, as surface dew points look to remain in the 60s, we likely will not see heat indices in the triple digits. Inland temps rise into the mid 90s for the NW half of the area on Friday with low 90s to the SE (upper 80s near the immediate coast). Dew points look to mix out into the 60s once again so max heat index values will only be a degree or two higher than the air temperature.
Looking ahead, the hottest part of the week still looks to be Saturday and Sunday as high pressure slides offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast into the western Atlantic. A more typical summertime Bermuda Ridge pattern allows heat to build further Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 90s, as dewpoints/PW values recover back toward climo normal values. EPS/GEFS probs and thickness schemes from both the ECMWF and GFS favoring more widespread upper 90s and Max Heat Indices creeping into the upper 90s to low 100s on Saturday and potentially 105+ in spots on Sunday. Overnight lows stay in the 60s Thursday night but increase toward 70 degrees Friday night. Will add a few degrees to lows each night this weekend with mid 70s likely by Sunday morning.
A low chance for thunderstorms may materialize by Sunday, as a weak lee trough sets up and low level moisture increases.
AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 645 AM EDT Monday...
High pressure is centered off the coast as of 12z. VFR with SCT-BKN mid clouds with bases of 6-8kft across the region. The wind is generally light and variable, becoming S 5-10 kt inland and SE 5-10 kt along the coast. VFR and dry conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Mostly sunny today with FEW-SCT afternoon CU.
Dry with VFR conditions expected to prevail through Friday as high pressure remains centered off the coast.
MARINE
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay from this afternoon through the evening for a brief period of 20 to 25 knot wind gusts out of the S-SE.
- A summerlike and relatively benign pattern remains in place across the waters for much of the remainder of the week.
High pressure that is now offshore will remain centered north of Bermuda for much of the week. Winds are S-SE at ~10 kt early this morning, but will increase again later today. With a slightly tighter pressure gradient this aftn/evening when compared to yesterday, am expecting a brief (2-4 hour) period of 15-20 kt S-SE winds (w/ gusts to 20-25 kt) between 3 PM and midnight (earlier S/later N) on the bay. Local wind probabilities now show about a 50- 75 percent chc of sustained 18kt+ winds across the bay. Therefore, went ahead and issued SCAs for all Ches Bay zones from this aftn through late this evening. Otherwise, the pattern becomes quite stagnant through the remainder of the week with southerly winds of 5- 15 kt with the strongest winds in the afternoon and evening hours.
Seas generally 2 to 3 feet in the ocean and waves 1-3 ft in the bay through Wed. Seas may increase to ~4 feet on Thursday and Friday as some SE swell moves toward the area.
Will continue with the moderate rip current risk for all beaches today. Flow becomes more southerly on Tuesday which will keep the moderate rip current risk confined to the northern beaches. By late week, there is a hint of a SE swell that may push seas to ~4 ft. If this happens, there will be elevated rip current risks by Thu/Fri.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 634.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 44041 - Jamestown, VA | 31 mi | 41 min | SSE 5.8G | 81°F | 82°F | |||
| YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA | 36 mi | 83 min | SE 1.9 | 84°F | 30.24 | 66°F | ||
| YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA | 47 mi | 53 min | S 5.1G | 82°F | 78°F | 30.22 |
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(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:04 AM EDT 3.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:34 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:24 AM EDT 0.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:34 PM EDT 2.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:29 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT 0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:32 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:04 AM EDT 3.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:34 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:24 AM EDT 0.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:34 PM EDT 2.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:29 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT 0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:32 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.1 |
| 1 am |
| 3.3 |
| 2 am |
| 3.1 |
| 3 am |
| 2.7 |
| 4 am |
| 2.2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.7 |
| 6 am |
| 1.2 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 0.7 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.1 |
City Point (Hopewell)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:34 AM EDT 2.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:33 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:12 AM EDT 0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:04 PM EDT 2.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:29 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:44 PM EDT 0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:32 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:34 AM EDT 2.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:33 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:12 AM EDT 0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:04 PM EDT 2.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:29 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:44 PM EDT 0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:32 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.9 |
| 1 am |
| 2.9 |
| 2 am |
| 2.6 |
| 3 am |
| 2.1 |
| 4 am |
| 1.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.8 |
| 7 am |
| 0.6 |
| 8 am |
| 0.7 |
| 9 am |
| 1.1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.6 |
| 11 am |
| 2.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.4 |
Wakefield, VA,
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