Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cousins Island, ME
June 14, 2024 2:59 AM EDT (06:59 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 4:57 AM Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 1:02 PM Moonset 1:03 AM |
ANZ153 Casco Bay- 1140 Pm Edt Thu Jun 13 2024
Overnight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers and scattered tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms in the evening, then scattered showers and tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Sat - N winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers.
Sat night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 1140 Pm Edt Thu Jun 13 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm a cold front approaches the waters through the daytime Friday, and then crosses the waters Friday night a developing area of low pressure passes east of the gulf of maine Friday night and into Saturday. High pressure builds across the waters for the weekend, and then moves east of the gulf of maine and strengthens early next week.
Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 140531 AAA AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 131 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will cross the region on Friday...bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region. Cooler and drier air will build in for the weekend
Next week
a large ridge of high pressure will build towards the Northeastern United States with warming temperatures. An extended period of significant heat is expected to develop by Tuesday and continue through the remainder of the week with most locations seeing high temperatures into the 90s.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
1130 PM Update... Another round of minor forecast adjustments were made but the forecast thinking remains on track. Convective showers and thunderstorms over southern Quebec and upstate NY are tracking eastward a little quicker than hi-res guidance solutions and therefore sped up PoPs some. These storms are within a region of around 40 kts of bulk shear and a few hundred joules of MLCAPE. Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicates these conditions are well to our west and thus would expect a continued weakening trend in these showers and storms as they track east towards our area overnight into Friday morning.
Previously...
830 PM Update... Widely scattered showers continue to move from west to east across the north and therefore went ahead and increased PoPs to account for this. Otherwise, just made some minor adjustment to temperatures, sky cover, and winds through tomorrow morning.
Previously...
540 PM Update... A quick update was made to PoPs across Coos county to account for some shower activity that is arriving from VT. Otherwise, just loaded in the latest observations at this time.
Previously...
High clouds gradually increase overnight tonight as a cold front approaches. The clouds and southerly flow help to keep lows mainly in the 60s overnight. Some showers from this afternoon's convection begin to push into northern areas after midnight, and will slowly diminish in coverage as they move toward the coastline through the daylight hours tomorrow morning. A few thunderstorms are also possible overnight toward the Canadian border, but these are also expected to weaken as they move southeastward.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
The front gradually moves through the area during the daytime tomorrow. Morning showers give way to a mix of sun and clouds, allowing temps to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s south of the mountains with increasing dew points. Southeastern NH stands the best chance to warm into the mid 80s with a bit more sunshine. Across the mountains, more showers and a few thunderstorm begin to develop again by the early afternoon.
These then progress southeastward through the day with the front.
The best chance for some strong to severe storms continues to be across southeastern and southern New Hampshire, where the greatest heating and shear look to combine. Some isolated strong to severe storms are also likely elsewhere across the coastal plain during the mid afternoon, but it looks like the front will be clearing the coastline too early in the afternoon to cause more of a concern. Some heavy rainfall is also possible, especially across southeastern New Hampshire where a couple rounds of storms are possible, and could cause some localized issues that will need to be monitored.
Showers and a few thunderstorms gradually diminish along the coastline through the evening and into the overnight hours as the front moves offshore. A developing area of low pressure passing offshore helps to slow the front a bit and keeping the showers near the coast through the overnight, so only gradual clearing is expected by daybreak on Saturday. Cooler and drier air begins to make its way into northern areas tomorrow night, with lows dropping to near 50 degrees.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Multi Day Heat Expected Next Week...
High Impact Weather Potential: Multiple days of heat indices in excess of 95 to 100F beginning Tuesday likely continuing through the end of the week. The potential exists for heat indices in excess of 105F especially over southern NH and SW ME.
--Pattern and Summary--
The long term period opens with a mobile longwave trough overhead which will move east of the region by Sunday
Beyond this
a significant pattern change is in the works...with longwave troughing digging down the west coast of North America which will help push western US ridging to the east. The result will be a building ridge across the eastern half of the United States on Tuesday with this ridge locking in place over the northeast for the middle and latter portions of the week. This ridge looks to be rather impressive for any time of the summer
not to mention mid June
with H5 return intervals approaching or exceeding 30 years by Wednesday and Thursday and nearing the top end of the GYX sounding climatology.
Thus...the primary forecast concern for the long term will center on temperatures rather than precipitation as the proximity of the ridge next week will likely preclude much in the way of rainfall while temperatures will potentially near record highs centered around the first day of astronomical summer.
--Daily Details--
Saturday - Sunday: One last stretch of dry and seasonable weather is expected to open the period this weekend as offshore cold front pushes east on Saturday with Canadian high pressure building overhead for Sunday. The ensemble guidance envelope includes some members that have a few showers along the coast as the frontal boundary slows over the Gulf of Maine...but expect the day to feature morning clearing...seasonable temperatures /highs in the upper 60s in the mountains to the upper 70s across southern NH/ and dramatically lower dewpoints than on Friday. This sets up a good radiational cooling night Saturday night with 40s common across the area. Expect some of the northern valleys will dip again into the upper /and perhaps middle/ 30s. Sunny weather expected for Father's Day with T8s in the upper single digits suggesting highs in the 70s to around 80 from north to south.
Monday: High pressure settles south of Maritime Canada with deep layer ridging building towards the region from the west will allow return flow to strengthen...with temperatures building to star the week. Monday looks seasonably mild with nearby high pressure /weak gradient/ indicating a robust sea breeze with highs along the coast in the 70s...and temperatures reaching the lower to middle 80s inland.
Tuesday - Thursday: T8s push into the upper teens by Tuesday with some potential to push above 20C by Thursday...which represents a 1 in 10 year to 1 in 30 year event for this time in June. Fully mixed...+20C suggests mid 90s which is well-captured by the NBM for Wednesday/Thursday. This is right in the vicinity of daily records for this period /for example...CON for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday is 98F/. A slightly more southerly trajectory to the gradient should allow the immediate coast to stay cooler on Tuesday / 70s to lower 80s / with a seabreeze but by Wednesday and Thursday the gradient turns more westerly with the heat pushing to the coast.
Dewpoints begin the period in the lower 60s on Tuesday...and then into the mid/upper 60s by Wednesday-Thursday with some ensemble members going higher than this. While a few ensemble members have a convective complex trying to push into our area at some point in the extended...this has little ensemble support and conceptually doesn/t fit given our proximity to the center of the ridge
Thus
will maintain a dry forecast through the period.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Short Term...Showers across NY will continue to weaken as they reach the terminals towards daybreak with little in the way of restrictions as they pass overhead through the morning.
This afternoon...expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop with scattered MVFR/IFR restrictions.
Friday night...a few additional showers will be possible for the coastal terminals with some potential isolated restrictions with patchy fog developing inland depending on the extent of rainfall Friday afternoon. This could yield local IFR restrictions.
LLWS will continue through daybreak Friday with 1.5kft winds 30-40kts from the southwest.
Southwest winds around 10kts for the overnight will continue through frontal passage and associated shower/thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon with winds shifting to the northwest <10kts Friday night.
The greatest chances for strong thunderstorms will be CON/MHT/PSM though all sites have the potential for lightning in the 17-00Z time window.
Long Term...Any lingering showers should depart the region early Saturday...with VFR conditions and northwesterly winds 10kts before winds diminish Saturday night with light winds/VFR conditions Sunday through Tuesday.
MARINE
Short Term...South-southwesterly winds freshen ahead of an approaching cold front tonight, with marginal SCA conditions developing after midnight. SCA conditions continue tomorrow, then the front crosses the waters tomorrow evening with showers and thunderstorms. High pressure begins to build across the waters by late tomorrow night.
Long Term...High pressure builds over the waters this weekend before settling south of the waters early next week. Given this setup, winds/waves are expected to remain below SCA levels through the long term period.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150- 152-154.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 131 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will cross the region on Friday...bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region. Cooler and drier air will build in for the weekend
Next week
a large ridge of high pressure will build towards the Northeastern United States with warming temperatures. An extended period of significant heat is expected to develop by Tuesday and continue through the remainder of the week with most locations seeing high temperatures into the 90s.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
1130 PM Update... Another round of minor forecast adjustments were made but the forecast thinking remains on track. Convective showers and thunderstorms over southern Quebec and upstate NY are tracking eastward a little quicker than hi-res guidance solutions and therefore sped up PoPs some. These storms are within a region of around 40 kts of bulk shear and a few hundred joules of MLCAPE. Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicates these conditions are well to our west and thus would expect a continued weakening trend in these showers and storms as they track east towards our area overnight into Friday morning.
Previously...
830 PM Update... Widely scattered showers continue to move from west to east across the north and therefore went ahead and increased PoPs to account for this. Otherwise, just made some minor adjustment to temperatures, sky cover, and winds through tomorrow morning.
Previously...
540 PM Update... A quick update was made to PoPs across Coos county to account for some shower activity that is arriving from VT. Otherwise, just loaded in the latest observations at this time.
Previously...
High clouds gradually increase overnight tonight as a cold front approaches. The clouds and southerly flow help to keep lows mainly in the 60s overnight. Some showers from this afternoon's convection begin to push into northern areas after midnight, and will slowly diminish in coverage as they move toward the coastline through the daylight hours tomorrow morning. A few thunderstorms are also possible overnight toward the Canadian border, but these are also expected to weaken as they move southeastward.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
The front gradually moves through the area during the daytime tomorrow. Morning showers give way to a mix of sun and clouds, allowing temps to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s south of the mountains with increasing dew points. Southeastern NH stands the best chance to warm into the mid 80s with a bit more sunshine. Across the mountains, more showers and a few thunderstorm begin to develop again by the early afternoon.
These then progress southeastward through the day with the front.
The best chance for some strong to severe storms continues to be across southeastern and southern New Hampshire, where the greatest heating and shear look to combine. Some isolated strong to severe storms are also likely elsewhere across the coastal plain during the mid afternoon, but it looks like the front will be clearing the coastline too early in the afternoon to cause more of a concern. Some heavy rainfall is also possible, especially across southeastern New Hampshire where a couple rounds of storms are possible, and could cause some localized issues that will need to be monitored.
Showers and a few thunderstorms gradually diminish along the coastline through the evening and into the overnight hours as the front moves offshore. A developing area of low pressure passing offshore helps to slow the front a bit and keeping the showers near the coast through the overnight, so only gradual clearing is expected by daybreak on Saturday. Cooler and drier air begins to make its way into northern areas tomorrow night, with lows dropping to near 50 degrees.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Multi Day Heat Expected Next Week...
High Impact Weather Potential: Multiple days of heat indices in excess of 95 to 100F beginning Tuesday likely continuing through the end of the week. The potential exists for heat indices in excess of 105F especially over southern NH and SW ME.
--Pattern and Summary--
The long term period opens with a mobile longwave trough overhead which will move east of the region by Sunday
Beyond this
a significant pattern change is in the works...with longwave troughing digging down the west coast of North America which will help push western US ridging to the east. The result will be a building ridge across the eastern half of the United States on Tuesday with this ridge locking in place over the northeast for the middle and latter portions of the week. This ridge looks to be rather impressive for any time of the summer
not to mention mid June
with H5 return intervals approaching or exceeding 30 years by Wednesday and Thursday and nearing the top end of the GYX sounding climatology.
Thus...the primary forecast concern for the long term will center on temperatures rather than precipitation as the proximity of the ridge next week will likely preclude much in the way of rainfall while temperatures will potentially near record highs centered around the first day of astronomical summer.
--Daily Details--
Saturday - Sunday: One last stretch of dry and seasonable weather is expected to open the period this weekend as offshore cold front pushes east on Saturday with Canadian high pressure building overhead for Sunday. The ensemble guidance envelope includes some members that have a few showers along the coast as the frontal boundary slows over the Gulf of Maine...but expect the day to feature morning clearing...seasonable temperatures /highs in the upper 60s in the mountains to the upper 70s across southern NH/ and dramatically lower dewpoints than on Friday. This sets up a good radiational cooling night Saturday night with 40s common across the area. Expect some of the northern valleys will dip again into the upper /and perhaps middle/ 30s. Sunny weather expected for Father's Day with T8s in the upper single digits suggesting highs in the 70s to around 80 from north to south.
Monday: High pressure settles south of Maritime Canada with deep layer ridging building towards the region from the west will allow return flow to strengthen...with temperatures building to star the week. Monday looks seasonably mild with nearby high pressure /weak gradient/ indicating a robust sea breeze with highs along the coast in the 70s...and temperatures reaching the lower to middle 80s inland.
Tuesday - Thursday: T8s push into the upper teens by Tuesday with some potential to push above 20C by Thursday...which represents a 1 in 10 year to 1 in 30 year event for this time in June. Fully mixed...+20C suggests mid 90s which is well-captured by the NBM for Wednesday/Thursday. This is right in the vicinity of daily records for this period /for example...CON for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday is 98F/. A slightly more southerly trajectory to the gradient should allow the immediate coast to stay cooler on Tuesday / 70s to lower 80s / with a seabreeze but by Wednesday and Thursday the gradient turns more westerly with the heat pushing to the coast.
Dewpoints begin the period in the lower 60s on Tuesday...and then into the mid/upper 60s by Wednesday-Thursday with some ensemble members going higher than this. While a few ensemble members have a convective complex trying to push into our area at some point in the extended...this has little ensemble support and conceptually doesn/t fit given our proximity to the center of the ridge
Thus
will maintain a dry forecast through the period.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Short Term...Showers across NY will continue to weaken as they reach the terminals towards daybreak with little in the way of restrictions as they pass overhead through the morning.
This afternoon...expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop with scattered MVFR/IFR restrictions.
Friday night...a few additional showers will be possible for the coastal terminals with some potential isolated restrictions with patchy fog developing inland depending on the extent of rainfall Friday afternoon. This could yield local IFR restrictions.
LLWS will continue through daybreak Friday with 1.5kft winds 30-40kts from the southwest.
Southwest winds around 10kts for the overnight will continue through frontal passage and associated shower/thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon with winds shifting to the northwest <10kts Friday night.
The greatest chances for strong thunderstorms will be CON/MHT/PSM though all sites have the potential for lightning in the 17-00Z time window.
Long Term...Any lingering showers should depart the region early Saturday...with VFR conditions and northwesterly winds 10kts before winds diminish Saturday night with light winds/VFR conditions Sunday through Tuesday.
MARINE
Short Term...South-southwesterly winds freshen ahead of an approaching cold front tonight, with marginal SCA conditions developing after midnight. SCA conditions continue tomorrow, then the front crosses the waters tomorrow evening with showers and thunderstorms. High pressure begins to build across the waters by late tomorrow night.
Long Term...High pressure builds over the waters this weekend before settling south of the waters early next week. Given this setup, winds/waves are expected to remain below SCA levels through the long term period.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150- 152-154.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME | 9 mi | 59 min | SSW 6G | 64°F | 57°F | 29.81 | ||
| 44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME | 16 mi | 49 min | S 12G | 62°F | 57°F | 29.84 | 58°F | |
| WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME | 36 mi | 59 min | SSW 2.9 | 67°F | 60°F | |||
| 44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf | 42 mi | 115 min | SSW 12G | 64°F | 60°F | 3 ft | 29.85 | |
| 44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf | 42 mi | 115 min | SW 12G | 62°F | 3 ft | 29.86 |
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Wind History graph: PWM
(wind in knots)Doyle Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:45 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 04:42 AM EDT 8.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:58 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 11:05 AM EDT 0.99 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:59 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:26 PM EDT 8.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 11:26 PM EDT 1.70 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:45 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 04:42 AM EDT 8.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:58 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 11:05 AM EDT 0.99 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:59 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:26 PM EDT 8.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 11:26 PM EDT 1.70 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Doyle Point, Maine, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.5 |
| 1 am |
| 4.1 |
| 2 am |
| 6 |
| 3 am |
| 7.6 |
| 4 am |
| 8.6 |
| 5 am |
| 8.8 |
| 6 am |
| 8.1 |
| 7 am |
| 6.7 |
| 8 am |
| 4.7 |
| 9 am |
| 2.8 |
| 10 am |
| 1.5 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 6.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 7.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 8.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 8.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 7.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 5.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 4 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.8 |
Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:44 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 02:33 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:56 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 05:15 AM EDT 0.70 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:20 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:27 AM EDT -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:57 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 03:14 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:59 PM EDT 0.74 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:10 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:55 PM EDT -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:44 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 02:33 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:56 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 05:15 AM EDT 0.70 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:20 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:27 AM EDT -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:57 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 03:14 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:59 PM EDT 0.74 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:10 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:55 PM EDT -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.5 |
| 1 am |
| -0.3 |
| 2 am |
| -0.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 0.7 |
| 7 am |
| 0.6 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.2 |
| 10 am |
| -0.3 |
| 11 am |
| -0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.4 |
Portland, ME,
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