Sunrise 5:13 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 2:20 AM   Moonset 2:56 PM

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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 305 Am Cdt Sat Jun 1 2024
Early this morning - South wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Today - South wind 10 to 15 knots backing east late in the afternoon. Chance of showers late in the morning. Rain showers in the afternoon. Patchy fog late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tonight - East wind 5 to 10 knots backing north early in the morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight. Patchy fog through around midnight, then areas of fog after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Sunday - North wind 5 to 10 knots veering east late in the afternoon. Areas of fog in the morning. Waves around 1 foot. Sunday night - East wind 5 to 10 knots veering southeast after midnight. Partly cloudy through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 010842 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers and a few thunderstorms expected today, with the best chances (>75%) over southeastern Wisconsin.

- Daily rain chances Monday through at least Wednesday, and potential through the entire workweek.

- Trending cooler by next weekend.

SHORT TERM
Issued 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Today through Sunday:

Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected across the region today, with the highest chances occuring over southeastern Wisconsin. Shortwave energy over Missouri will move northeastward toward the region today, with a corresponding increase in lift and moisture. At the same time, a weak frontal zone will migrate southeastward, aiding in shower production.

Showers will initially be light given a considerable amount of dry air in place, but will pick up this afternoon as the quality of the airmass improves, especially southeast of a Janesville to Milwaukee line. This is where thunder chances will be greatest (20-30%).

Rain will end this evening, though low clouds will likely stick around. Fresh rainfall and a moist airmass will combine with light and variable winds to favor fog formation overnight tonight into Sunday morning. Areas of dense fog will be possible.

Sunday looks to be a very pleasant day, with highs reaching the upper 70s to near 80.

Boxell

LONG TERM
Issued 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Sunday night through Friday:

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the High Plains Sunday night, and then progress eastward into the region Monday, along and head of a convectively enhanced shortwave/MCV. Convection will likely be dissipating as it outruns any sort of quality airmass. Depending on the timing of the shortwave/MCV, redevelopment is possible during the late morning and afternoon hours.

A more substantial shortwave is progged to swing across the central and northern Plains on Tuesday, lifting into the western Great Lakes Tuesday night, along with an associated cold front.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of this feature. If enough instability can build this far north, strong/severe storms are not out of the question. However, for now, this risk seems to be higher well to our south and southwest.

Extended guidance then suggests a prolonged period of brisk northwest flow over the area, continuing into next weekend. This would favor cooler temperatures and afternoon chances for showers.

Boxell

AVIATION
Issued 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR conditions are expected to start the day, with scattered showers increasing in coverage across the area. Ceilings will eventually lower with time, reaching MVFR and potentially IFR by afternoon. A few thunderstorms are also possible, but will be widely scattered. Low ceilings and fog are expected tonight into Sunday morning, with IFR and potentially LIFR conditions expected.

Boxell

MARINE
Issued 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

High pressure over the Mid Atlantic will retreat further east today. A weak surface low will then pass to the south of the area, bringing rain showers to at least the southern half of the lake. Winds will likely shift to the east and then north as the low moves through the region, especially across the southern half of the lake. Light and variable winds are likely Sunday as high pressure briefly moves through the area. Winds will return to southerly early next week and also increase a bit ahead of the next approaching low pressure system. A chance for showers and storms will return to Lake Michigan during this period as well.

Boxell

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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