Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 3:15 AM   Moonset 5:51 PM

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FXUS62 KRAH 041405 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1005 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
A series of mid-level disturbances will move east and interact with an unseasonably moist airmass over NC through Thursday. A pre- frontal trough and cold front will move across the area Thursday evening through early Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1005 AM Tuesday...

Latest satellite data shows clouds thinning in the NE region after a morning of heavy continuous rainfall across the region. The Flash Flood Advisory has been lifted as the rain has dissipated and shifted east. Reports estimated rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches fell in the northern portions of Nash county. No major updates to temperatures or dew points this morning and only minor updates to PoPs for this afternoon. Similar to yesterday, scattered afternoon showers and storms are expected to develop across the region with pulse like storms at which, some could be strong to border-line severe with strong winds and heavy rainfall. Highs today will be around 5 degrees above average ranging from mid 80s NW to around 90 in the south/east.

As of 350 AM Tuesday... Hot and humid, with a ~30-40 chance showers/storms maximized this afternoon-evening.

A weak upr-level/tropopause-based disturbance now centered over the wrn Carolinas will move sewd and off the SC coast later this morning. A mid/upr-level ridge will otherwise continue to extend across the Middle Atlantic, while a couple of MCVs now over MS will track along its wrn periphery and across the TN Valley today and the srn Appalachians and wrn Carolinas tonight-early Wed.

At the surface, high pressure centered near and south of Bermuda will extend wwd and across the South Atlantic states, while a weak backdoor cold front/trough will move swwd along the Middle Atlantic coast and reach sern VA and perhaps the nrn Outer Banks of NC.
Additionally, an outflow boundary and focus for ongoing showers over the ne NC Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain may linger today.

Daytime heating, into the mid 80s to around 90 F, of a humid airmass characterized by surface dewpoints mostly in the mid-upr 60s, will favor moderate destabilization and minimal cinh by this afternoon.
Weak and somewhat nebulous forcing mechanisms, including the outflow boundary noted above and probably others from Monday's convection, will tend to focus pulse-type showers/storms amid weak wly steering flow again this afternoon, most of which should dissipate with loss of heating through this evening. The exception will be across the far srn/wrn NC Piedmont, where forcing related to the approaching MCVs from MS may either maintain some degree of upstream convection or encourage new development there. It will otherwise remain muggy and mild tonight, with lows mostly in the mid-upr 60s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 425 AM Tuesday...

A banner of convectively-enhanced mid-level vorticity, which will probably include a couple of initial MCVs now over MS, will move enewd across cntl NC on Wed. Another MCV from convection now over OK may follow a similar track as the first and across the TN Valley and srn Appalachians Wed and the Carolinas Wed night. Initially weak, wly/wswly mid-level flow (700-500 mb) will increase to around 30 kts on Wed, locally higher equatorward of the strongest MCV (wherever it may be) by that time.

At the surface, high pressure will persist and extend from near and south of Bermuda wwd and across the South Atlantic states, while a differential heating zone preceding the lead MCV and associated cloud canopy, and/or a loosely-organized outflow boundary from related rain/storms, will probably move east across cntl NC during the day.

The differential heating zone will provide a primary focus for the redevelopment or intensification of showers and storms on Wed. A combination of modest wly/wswly mid-level flow and a strongly- heated and steep lapse rate-bearing boundary layer to the east of the differential heating zone will be supportive of multi-cell clustering that may pose a risk of strong to severe wind gusts.
While the SPC DY2 outlook depicts general thunder at this time, 5%/MRGL probabilities may become justified for a portion of the Carolinas, as mesoscale uncertainties from the foregoing pattern become clearer.

It should otherwise be persistently hot in the mid 80s to around 90 F ahead of the differential heating zone, and up to several degrees cooler to its west (ie. most likely the srn/wrn Piedmont and perhaps wrn Sandhills). It remains unclear how much convective overturning may result from the lead MCV on Wed, so questions regarding the degree of instability for the trailing one forecast to move across the region Wed night warrant just a 20-30 percent chance of overnight convection at this time, with low temperatures again in mainly the mid-upr 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

By Thursday morning, an upper low will be over southwestern Ontario with a surface low a bit farther to the northeast. The surface cold front should extend southeast across the Great Lakes into Pennsylvania, then arc back to the southwest along the I-85/95 corridor. While some minimal changes were made to the area of likely shower coverage on Thursday, likely pops generally remain to the southeast of US-1. MUCAPE should be on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear remains at or below 30 kt. Thursday also appears to be the warmest day out of the next seven, with west- southwesterly flow providing warm advection allowing highs to max out between the mid 80s and lower 90s.

Although slight chance pops will continue from US-1 to the east Thursday evening, have continued the inherited dry forecast for Friday as the GEFS has finally come in line with other models showing all precipitation to the east of the region. Friday appears to be the day that noticeably drier air will arrive, with dewpoints dropping into the 50s (and upper 40s in the Triad). The dry forecast continues through Saturday into Sunday. Unfortunately, different runs of the GFS/ECMWF and their respective ensembles continue to flip-flop as to when the next front will approach the southeastern United States, so this part of the forecast has below normal confidence. For now, have slight chance pops Sunday night and chance pops everywhere Monday. The Thursday/Friday front won't bring much change in high temperatures, with highs remaining in the 80s through the weekend. However, there will be some relief each night, with overnight lows in the lower 60s instead of the upper 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 745 AM Tuesday...

Isolated to scattered showers/storms are likely to develop with daytime heating by early to mid-afternoon, with the relative highest probability of occurrence along an outflow boundary (lifting mechanism) related to an ongoing cluster of showers that has persisted for much of the night-morning near LHZ and RWI. A separate area of showers/storms accompanying a mid-level disturbance may overspread the wrn NC Piedmont (ie. INT/GSO) later tonight into Wednesday morning, during which time IFR-MVFR restrictions will be possible.

Outlook: A humid air mass in place through Thu will support a risk of late night-early morning stratus and fog, especially where widely scattered showers/storms occur the previous afternoon-evening.
Additionally, a short period of MVFR, convective cloud bases can be expected with daytime heating Wed mid-morning through early afternoon.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Bannermans Branch
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