Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 3:31 PM   Moonset 1:34 AM

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ANZ636 York River- 311 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2024
Through 7 am - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Today - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tue - S winds 5 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop, increasing to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Tue night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft, diminishing to around 1 foot after midnight. Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Thu night - SE winds 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves around 1 foot. Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.

ANZ600 311 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure will remain offshore with generally benign marine conditions expected through the week.

FXUS61 KAKQ 170639 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 239 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure drifts off the New England coast through midweek.
A very warm and dry pattern then looks to take hold for much of the week ahead. Heat peaks this weekend with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A few degrees warmer today as ridging builds over the Carolinas and southern Virginia.

1024mb high pressure is centered SE of Cape Cod but the ridge axis extends back to the SW into SE VA and eastern NC. Aloft, the well- advertised upper ridge will continue to strengthen today. Satellite shows some scattered to broken mid level clouds over the western and southern counties. Expect mostly sunny (E) to partly cloudy (W)
skies by this afternoon as some moisture is noted at the top of the mixed layer on forecast soundings. A weak lee trough will set up just east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon and despite large scale subsidence associated with the strengthening upper ridge, we could see a rogue thunderstorm or two sneak into the far west or northwest counties this afternoon into the early evening. Not at all confident regarding potential storm coverage so will keep PoPs around 20% for western portions of Prince Edward and Fluvanna counties.
Temperatures will rise into the low 90s for areas along and west of I-95 with upper 80s to the east and mid 80s along the coast. Dew points will be higher than we have seen in recent day with mid 60s likely for the Piedmont with low 60s elsewhere during peak mixing this afternoon. Any shower/storm activity will wane quickly this evening with overnight lows generally in the mid 60s (highest in the Piedmont and near the coast where low level moisture will be more robust).

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Continued warm and dry Tuesday and Wednesday as the core of the upper ridge lifts just north of the local area.

Surface high pressure remains anchored offshore Tuesday and Wednesday with low level onshore flow keeping an atypical temperature pattern in place. Highs each day will be in the upper 80s SE (mid 80s at near the coast) to the low 90s NW. Dew points will remain in the 60s which will keep heat index values very near the air temp. Clouds, outside of typical afternoon cumulus, will be hard to come by with strong ridging aloft. Low temps will fall into the 60s each night with low 70s possible along the coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Very warm and dry weather persists through late week. However, humidity levels remain in check through Friday.

- Hottest days look to be Saturday and Sunday, with humidity also recovering closer to seasonal levels during this period.

The anomalously strong upper heat ridge continues to build, as it drifts north along the eastern seaboard, peaking at around ~600 dam over the northeast Friday morning. This will maintain the atypical temperature pattern Thursday and Friday, with slightly warmer highs to the north, as E-SE winds keep coastal areas into the Hampton Roads/N OBX area slightly cooler. High temps Thursday will be in the low 90s inland with mid and upper 80s closer to the water.
And, as surface dew points look to remain in the 60s, we likely will not see heat indices in the triple digits. Inland temps rise into the mid 90s for the NW half of the area on Friday with low 90s to the SE (upper 80s near the immediate coast). Dew points look to mix out into the 60s once again so max heat index values will only be a degree or two higher than the air temperature.

Looking ahead, the hottest part of the week still looks to be Saturday and Sunday as high pressure slides offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast into the western Atlantic. A more typical summertime Bermuda Ridge pattern allows heat to build further Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 90s, as dewpoints/PW values recover back toward climo normal values. EPS/GEFS probs and thickness schemes from both the ECMWF and GFS favoring more widespread upper 90s and Max Heat Indices creeping into the upper 90s to low 100s on Saturday and potentially 105+ in spots on Sunday. Overnight lows stay in the 60s Thursday night but increase toward 70 degrees Friday night. Will add a few degrees to lows each night this weekend with mid 70s likely by Sunday morning.

A low chance for thunderstorms may materialize by Sunday, as a weak lee trough sets up and low level moisture increases.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

High pressure is centered off the coast as of 06z. VFR with SCT-BKN mid clouds with bases of 6-8kft around and SW of RIC.
The wind is SE ~5 kt. VFR and dry conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Mostly sunny today with FEW-SCT aftn CU inland.
Winds become S ~10kt inland and SE ~10kt along the coast late in the morning and into the aftn.

Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Friday as high pressure remains centered off the coast.

MARINE
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay from this afternoon through the evening for a brief period of 20 to 25 knot wind gusts out of the S-SE.

- A summerlike and relatively benign pattern remains in place across the waters for much of the remainder of the week.

High pressure that is now offshore will remain centered north of Bermuda for much of the week. Winds are S-SE at ~10 kt early this morning, but will increase again later today. With a slightly tighter pressure gradient this aftn/evening when compared to yesterday, am expecting a brief (2-4 hour) period of 15-20 kt S-SE winds (w/ gusts to 20-25 kt) between 3 PM and midnight (earlier S/later N) on the bay. Local wind probabilities now show about a 50- 75 percent chc of sustained 18kt+ winds across the bay. Therefore, went ahead and issued SCAs for all Ches Bay zones from this aftn through late this evening. Otherwise, the pattern becomes quite stagnant through the remainder of the week with southerly winds of 5- 15 kt with the strongest winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

Seas generally 2 to 3 feet in the ocean and waves 1-3 ft in the bay through Wed. Seas may increase to ~4 feet on Thursday and Friday as some SE swell moves toward the area.

Will continue with the moderate rip current risk for all beaches today. Flow becomes more southerly on Tuesday which will keep the moderate rip current risk confined to the northern beaches. By late week, there is a hint of a SE swell that may push seas to ~4 ft. If this happens, there will be elevated rip current risks by Thu/Fri.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-634.

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Richmond (river locks)
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Mon -- 01:40 AM EDT     3.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:58 AM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:10 PM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:30 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia, Tide feet

Richmond Deepwater Terminal
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Mon -- 01:11 AM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:23 AM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:41 PM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:55 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Richmond Deepwater Terminal, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

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