Sunrise 5:19 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM Moonrise 11:21 AM   Moonset 12:04 AM

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FXUS61 KBGM 131035 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 635 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure and dry conditions continues for Thursday. A cold frontal passage on Friday will bring a chance of showers and strong to possibly severe storms. High pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
315 AM Update...

Some valley fog has developed for mainly areas east of I-81, where there were some clouds hanging around yesterday and had cleared out in the evening. Fog is expected to dissipate soon after sunrise. Thursday will be warmer and dry with high pressure sticking around for one more day. Highs in the low to mid 80s expected.

Chances for rain showers and strong to possibly severe storms remain for Friday as a front approaches. Instability parameters look similar with every model run; 0-6 km shear remains around 50 knots, with CAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg. These showers and storms appears to progress quickly, with storm development likely to occur in the morning over Central NY, move south and eastward through the afternoon, and mostly out of the area by the evening hours. The main threat with any storm development, whether strong to severe, will be wind, with possible hail with convective initiation before these showers and storms form more of a line heading south and eastward.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A cold frontal boundary will sweep away any lingering showers and thunderstorms during the evening. High pressure should fairly quickly start to build into the region leading to some clearing Friday night with lows in the 50's. Winds look to stay high enough to prevent fog formation at this time. High pressure should remain in place resulting in a fairly tranquil weekend with highs generally in the 70's with 40's and 50's for lows.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The core of the previously mentioned high pressure looks to strengthen southeast of our region pumping in increasing hot and humid air into the region next week. This ridge should also keep any organized frontal boundaries or lifting agents for showers and thunderstorms north and west of the region. A stay thunderstorm can't be ruled out with the hot and humid airmass over the terrain in our region each afternoon Monday through Wednesday though. Low temperatures look to trend muggier into the 60's and perhaps 70 in a few spots. Ensemble guidance and modeled 925 mb temperatures both show a high likelihood for most locations getting into the 90's by Tuesday and Wednesday.
Current maximum heat index values are currently forecasted to be around 100 degrees each afternoon.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions expected through this TAF package. High cirrus coming in this morning, with light and variable winds that will become SW around 8-12 knots Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...Restrictions possible in showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms, highest chances Friday afternoon.

Saturday through Monday morning...mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon...Restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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Castleton-on-Hudson
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Thu -- 12:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:43 AM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:25 AM EDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:18 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:17 PM EDT     4.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Albany
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Thu -- 12:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:12 AM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:42 AM EDT     4.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:47 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:34 PM EDT     4.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

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Albany, NY,