Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rochester, NY
June 18, 2024 6:01 AM EDT (10:01 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:28 AM Sunset 8:54 PM Moonrise 4:51 PM Moonset 1:47 AM |
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 956 Pm Edt Mon Jun 17 2024
Overnight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday - South winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night - South winds 10 knots or less. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday - South winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night - South winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday - Southwest winds less than 10 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday - Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Saturday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 62 degrees.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 62 degrees.
LOZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 180814 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 414 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Hot and humid weather through at least Thursday with apparent temperatures during this time likely to reach 100F at many locations today and Wednesday. There will also be scattered showers and thunderstorms at times, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Cluster of showers and isolated thunder working into the eastern Lake Ontario region early this morning, associated with a long lived MCV moving into the region. Severe weather is not expected with this cluster, but a period of locally heavy rain is likely, before the cluster exits the region by mid morning.
Little overall change to the airmass over the lower Great Lakes today. Mid level ridge will continue to amplify today with 850 mb temperatures around +20C. Only a few spots managed to get into the lower 90s on Monday, but should see more widespread 90s today given the rising heights aloft. It will also be more humid with dewpoints rising to into the lower 70s. This combination will result in dangerously hot conditions with heat index values in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire area.
Outside of the early morning convection working through the eastern Lake Ontario region, and perhaps a stray shower or storm elsewhere the bulk of the expected convection will hold off until this afternoon and evening. With the area still on the periphery of the building ridge, a disturbance riding along the ridge will work into the region late in the day. This disturbance along with any lake breeze boundaries will trigger scattered showers and storms. Strong surface heating will contribute to destabilization underneath the building ridge.
Most mesoscale guidance suggests the best chances will be across the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes, although convection could occur just about anywhere just inland from the lakeshores.
Some of the cells will be capable of producing very heavy rain and strong gusty winds, with the lastest SPC Day One outlook highlighting the entire area in a marginal severe thunderstorm risk.
Any afternoon and evening convection will diminish overnight tonight, other than perhaps a stray shower or storm. There will be little reprieve from the muggy conditions with low temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, with some upper 60s across the Southern tier and North Country.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
...Heat Advisory in Effect for the Entire Area as Dangerous Heat Builds Through Thursday...
Hot and humid daytime conditions and warm and muggy nights will persist throughout the middle of the week as a result of surface high pressure remaining anchored along the Eastern Seaboard in conjunction with a slowly amplifying upper level ridge across the eastern CONUS
Heading into Wednesday, the mid-level ridge will remain strongly in place across the region, with some ensemble models depicting heights closing in on 600 dm. This being said, temperatures at 850s mb will remain around +20 Celsius and therefore support high temperatures in the mid to low 90s. As mentioned previously, the humidity will create sultry conditions with apparent temperatures ranging in the 90s during peak heading hours (mid-day through the afternoon).
Similarly, nighttime conditions will continue to feel muggy despite a drop in the heat index values.
Thursday, the ridge will drop south and southeast. This slight jog from it's position Wednesday will allow for a slight drop in temperatures and heat index values Thursday. Despite the slight drop in conditions, Thursday will continue to be hot and humid, with heat index values ranging in the mid 90s to low 100s for the bulk of western and north central New York.
For both days, the positioning and proximity of the upper level ridge will suppress most of the convection, however afternoon heating and instability with some forcing along the lake breeze boundaries may support some showers and thunderstorms. A better chance for an isolated showers and/or thunderstorm will lie across the North Country/Saint Lawrence Valley closer to the northern periphery of the ridge.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Heading into the end of the week and into the start of the new work week, expect a gradual day-to-day cooling trend due to multiple successive shortwave troughs traverse eastward across central and eastern Canada, acting to slowly suppress the ridge southward. As a result this will create quasi-zonal flow across the CONUS by Monday.
Even with the "cooling" trend, conditions will continue to remain on the warm and humid throughout the end of the week and into the weekend. Temperatures Friday will feature upper 80s to low 90s before cooling off to the mid to upper 80s by Sunday. As mentioned previously with the humidity, heat index values will range between the low to mid 90s Friday and then in the mid to near 90 by Sunday.
With regards to precipitation, there will be a slight increase in the potential for convection Friday through Sunday due to upper level disturbances riding the northern periphery of the upper level ridge and a surface boundary sagging south into the region from Canada. Areas that do receive storm activity will have a slight reprieve from the warm muggy conditions, through it will be on the shorter side.
Sunday night into Monday, a deep trough and associated surface low and cold front will track east across the region, resulting in widespread showers to pass across the region. With this system, air conditions will be notably cooler in the wake of the front. Highs Monday will return to near normal with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s region wide.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Fog is possible in the Southern Tier river valleys with a brief period of MVFR vsby possible at KJHW through 11Z. Early morning convection moving through the eastern lake Ontario region may bring some lower conditions to KART through around 12Z.
Mainly VFR flight conditions through the day today. Showers and storms will develop during the afternoon hours. Localized MVFR or lower possible.
Outlook...
Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR, but a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes.
MARINE
High pressure will be near the eastern Great Lakes through much of this week, offering light winds, generally 15 knots or less on the lakes.
CLIMATE
A prolonged period of heat is expected for our region this week.
Below are record high temperatures for our three main climate sites:
Buffalo
Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...
June 18
95/1994............73/2006
June 19
90/2001............73/1919
June 20
92/1995............73/2012
Rochester
Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...
June 18
97/1957............72/2018
June 19
95/2001............72/1919
June 20
95/1953............72/1923
Watertown
Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...
June 18
91/1957............70/1992
June 19
91/2007............70/1949
June 20
90/1971............71/2012
Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871.
Temperature records for Watertown date back to 1949.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ001- 002-006>008-010>012-019>021-085.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ003>005-013-014.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 414 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Hot and humid weather through at least Thursday with apparent temperatures during this time likely to reach 100F at many locations today and Wednesday. There will also be scattered showers and thunderstorms at times, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Cluster of showers and isolated thunder working into the eastern Lake Ontario region early this morning, associated with a long lived MCV moving into the region. Severe weather is not expected with this cluster, but a period of locally heavy rain is likely, before the cluster exits the region by mid morning.
Little overall change to the airmass over the lower Great Lakes today. Mid level ridge will continue to amplify today with 850 mb temperatures around +20C. Only a few spots managed to get into the lower 90s on Monday, but should see more widespread 90s today given the rising heights aloft. It will also be more humid with dewpoints rising to into the lower 70s. This combination will result in dangerously hot conditions with heat index values in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire area.
Outside of the early morning convection working through the eastern Lake Ontario region, and perhaps a stray shower or storm elsewhere the bulk of the expected convection will hold off until this afternoon and evening. With the area still on the periphery of the building ridge, a disturbance riding along the ridge will work into the region late in the day. This disturbance along with any lake breeze boundaries will trigger scattered showers and storms. Strong surface heating will contribute to destabilization underneath the building ridge.
Most mesoscale guidance suggests the best chances will be across the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes, although convection could occur just about anywhere just inland from the lakeshores.
Some of the cells will be capable of producing very heavy rain and strong gusty winds, with the lastest SPC Day One outlook highlighting the entire area in a marginal severe thunderstorm risk.
Any afternoon and evening convection will diminish overnight tonight, other than perhaps a stray shower or storm. There will be little reprieve from the muggy conditions with low temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, with some upper 60s across the Southern tier and North Country.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
...Heat Advisory in Effect for the Entire Area as Dangerous Heat Builds Through Thursday...
Hot and humid daytime conditions and warm and muggy nights will persist throughout the middle of the week as a result of surface high pressure remaining anchored along the Eastern Seaboard in conjunction with a slowly amplifying upper level ridge across the eastern CONUS
Heading into Wednesday, the mid-level ridge will remain strongly in place across the region, with some ensemble models depicting heights closing in on 600 dm. This being said, temperatures at 850s mb will remain around +20 Celsius and therefore support high temperatures in the mid to low 90s. As mentioned previously, the humidity will create sultry conditions with apparent temperatures ranging in the 90s during peak heading hours (mid-day through the afternoon).
Similarly, nighttime conditions will continue to feel muggy despite a drop in the heat index values.
Thursday, the ridge will drop south and southeast. This slight jog from it's position Wednesday will allow for a slight drop in temperatures and heat index values Thursday. Despite the slight drop in conditions, Thursday will continue to be hot and humid, with heat index values ranging in the mid 90s to low 100s for the bulk of western and north central New York.
For both days, the positioning and proximity of the upper level ridge will suppress most of the convection, however afternoon heating and instability with some forcing along the lake breeze boundaries may support some showers and thunderstorms. A better chance for an isolated showers and/or thunderstorm will lie across the North Country/Saint Lawrence Valley closer to the northern periphery of the ridge.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Heading into the end of the week and into the start of the new work week, expect a gradual day-to-day cooling trend due to multiple successive shortwave troughs traverse eastward across central and eastern Canada, acting to slowly suppress the ridge southward. As a result this will create quasi-zonal flow across the CONUS by Monday.
Even with the "cooling" trend, conditions will continue to remain on the warm and humid throughout the end of the week and into the weekend. Temperatures Friday will feature upper 80s to low 90s before cooling off to the mid to upper 80s by Sunday. As mentioned previously with the humidity, heat index values will range between the low to mid 90s Friday and then in the mid to near 90 by Sunday.
With regards to precipitation, there will be a slight increase in the potential for convection Friday through Sunday due to upper level disturbances riding the northern periphery of the upper level ridge and a surface boundary sagging south into the region from Canada. Areas that do receive storm activity will have a slight reprieve from the warm muggy conditions, through it will be on the shorter side.
Sunday night into Monday, a deep trough and associated surface low and cold front will track east across the region, resulting in widespread showers to pass across the region. With this system, air conditions will be notably cooler in the wake of the front. Highs Monday will return to near normal with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s region wide.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Fog is possible in the Southern Tier river valleys with a brief period of MVFR vsby possible at KJHW through 11Z. Early morning convection moving through the eastern lake Ontario region may bring some lower conditions to KART through around 12Z.
Mainly VFR flight conditions through the day today. Showers and storms will develop during the afternoon hours. Localized MVFR or lower possible.
Outlook...
Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR, but a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes.
MARINE
High pressure will be near the eastern Great Lakes through much of this week, offering light winds, generally 15 knots or less on the lakes.
CLIMATE
A prolonged period of heat is expected for our region this week.
Below are record high temperatures for our three main climate sites:
Buffalo
Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...
June 18
95/1994............73/2006
June 19
90/2001............73/1919
June 20
92/1995............73/2012
Rochester
Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...
June 18
97/1957............72/2018
June 19
95/2001............72/1919
June 20
95/1953............72/1923
Watertown
Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...
June 18
91/1957............70/1992
June 19
91/2007............70/1949
June 20
90/1971............71/2012
Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871.
Temperature records for Watertown date back to 1949.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ001- 002-006>008-010>012-019>021-085.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ003>005-013-014.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 7 mi | 43 min | 70°F | |||||
| RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 7 mi | 61 min | WSW 2.9G | 76°F | 30.11 | |||
| 45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY | 33 mi | 31 min | S 5.8G | 65°F | 60°F | 30.10 | 64°F |
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Wind History graph: ROC
(wind in knots)
Buffalo, NY,
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