Sunrise 5:30 AM   Sunset 8:50 PM Moonrise 1:42 AM   Moonset 2:16 PM

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LOZ062 Expires:202405251645;;845696 Fzus71 Kbuf 251546 Mwsbuf
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 1146 am edt Sat may 25 2024
loz042-043-062-063-251645- 1146 am edt Sat may 25 2024
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Lake ontario from lower niagara river to sodus bay - .
at 1144 am edt, doppler radar indicated a cluser of Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and small hail. These Thunderstorms were located 14 nm northeast of youngstown, or 15 nm northeast of niagara river, moving northeast at 35 knots.
locations impacted include - . Ontario beach, thirty mile point, niagara river, ontario on the lake, olcott, hamlin beach, wilson, Sunset beach, fort niagara, and sodus bay.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes.
&&
lat - .lon 4354 7895 4363 7831 4363 7697 4326 7696 4326 7777 4331 7783 4334 7853 4326 7891 4326 7907 4345 7920

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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 201 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather will continue through tonight as high pressure across the region drifts to the east coast. Weakening low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley Sunday, bringing a chance of a showers and a few thunderstorms. Dry and warm weather will follow for early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
IR Satellite shows clear skies across the region early this morning. A mid level ridge will slowly crest over the region through today as surface high pressure drifts to the east coast. This will maintain fair weather across the region today, but there will be an increase in high clouds later this afternoon. Modest warm advection and sunshine should boost temperatures today several degrees warmer than Friday's readings with most highs in the mid to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
High pressure ridging at the surface and aloft will shift east from the Great Lakes to New England Saturday night. In its wake, a weakening shortwave will lift out of the Ohio Valley and towards the forecast area. While this will result in a wealth of cloud cover for the region, the vast majority of the night should remain rain free save for a few showers possibly reaching the far western zones late in the night. Otherwise, with limited radiational cooling, a warming airmass and gentle southerly flow developing, it should be a notably milder night with low temperatures some 10-15 degrees warmer compared to the last few nights we've seen.

For Sunday, mid-range model guidance continues to converge towards a solution that favors a more southern track and substantial weakening of the aforementioned shortwave trough as it runs up against and flattens the ridge to the east. Have tapered back PoPs to reflect this trend, though areas in the Southern Tier (especially closer to the NY/PA border) are still 'likely' to see a few showers or even an isolated tstorm Sunday. The precip and thicker cloud cover in this area are expected to hold down daytime temps in the upper 60s to low 70s, while mid to upper 70s will be found further north where some sunshine may peak out before day's end.

With the loss of daytime heating and the return of strong high pressure subsidence, any lingering showers should taper off or shift out of the forecast area fairly quick Sunday evening. This stretch of dry weather should then persist through Monday night before the high again migrates well east of the region. This also continue the warming trend, with highs Monday mainly in the upper 70s though a few readings in the low 80s are expected across the Lake Plains.
Monday night will feature lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Broad mid-level ridging over the Great Lakes and a deepening trough over the Northern Plains will both gradually shift eastward through the remainder of the week. This change in the overall jet stream pattern will cause much warmer air to continue circulating into the region, while also drawing additional GOMEX moisture northward into the eastern CONUS. The increasing heat and humidity will result in true summer-like weather Tuesday through Wednesday, with the mercury climbing into the 80s across much of the region both days.
Increasing instability may also result in the formation of diurnal showers and thunderstorms, though chances will be greater on Wednesday as surface high pressure loses more of its influence over the region and dewpoints climb into the 60s.

The trough will deepen and then close off across the Upper Midwest by Thursday. This will cause widespread showers and likely a few thunderstorms to push across the eastern Great Lakes region as the system's cold front and prefrontal trough move through the region between Thursday and Friday. This should also bring about the beginning of a cooling trend across the region, with high temps expected to fall back into the low/mid 70s by the end of the week.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR will prevail through tonight. High pressure and a mid-level ridge will maintain rain-free weather through 12Z Sunday. High clouds will increase late this afternoon, but clouds will be well into the VFR flight category.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, particularly across Western NY.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers.

MARINE
Relatively quiet weather this weekend into early next week with no marine headlines expected. A weak low moves northeast from the Ohio Valley to just south of the lower Great Lakes late tonight through Sunday with a chance of a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the region Sunday night through Monday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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