Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rocky Mount, NC
June 16, 2024 10:17 AM EDT (14:17 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:52 AM Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 2:29 PM Moonset 1:14 AM |
AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat - W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun - N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ100 329 Am Edt Sun Jun 16 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure dominates the rest of the weekend into next week resulting in dry, warm, quiet weather.
FXUS62 KRAH 161310 AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 910 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A stationary front will hold to our south and southwest, across South Carolina and southwest North Carolina, through tonight, before weakening and dissipating. Deep high pressure will build over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas through mid week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 910 AM Sunday...
Little change to the going forecast through tonight. The main change was to introduce a slight chance of showers this morning across the Triad and lower highs slightly in this area, as well as across the far north. Satellite imagery reveals some decent lift/clouds associated with 925 mb WAA and moist upslope. Some light spotty showers were also present on radar. Still expect the main isolated storms this afternoon over the Foothills/mountains of western NC, but did introduce a chance over the Triad given the aforementioned analysis currently. Lowered highs a tad in the Triad owing to some low clouds and over the northern parts of central NC, where thicknesses are somewhat lower. In these areas, have highs closer to MOS guidance in the mid 80s. Elsewhere, highs should remain in the upper 80s to low 90s. The previous discussion follows below.
Sfc analysis early this morning depicted a fading sea breeze stretched across the central Piedmont/Sandhills. Further south, a stalled front was evident along the NC coast, extending southwest into southern SC. Aloft, the anomalous mid-level ridge continues to extend along the eastern seaboard.
Overall, today should be pretty similar to yesterday, mostly dry and hot. While low-level flow will remain primarily esely today, the deepest moisture will pool along the Foothills/Mountains to our south and west. This area should be the main focus for convection today (and along the front in south central SC). However, can't rule out a stray shower/storm moving into the southern Piedmont later this afternoon. Highs today will max out in the upper 80s/lower 90s.
Warm overnight lows in the upper 60s will persist tonight.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 217 AM Sunday...
The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify up into the northeast US on Sunday. This will promote yet another hot and dry day for central NC. Low-level esely flow will persist, but the deeper moisture/instability axis will shift further northwest into the TN Valley on Monday. Most afternoon convection will follow suit, as central NC remains primarily dry. Highs will once again reach the lower 90s. Dew points will struggle to mix out a bit more compared to Sunday, and thus expect a bit more uncomfortable sensible weather. While heat indices will stay well below advisory criteria, given the persistent hot temperatures we've experienced recently, it's advised to practice heat safety including hydrating and taking frequent breaks in shady areas if participating in outdoor activities.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 300 AM Sunday...
Hot and dry conditions will remain the story through much of the upcoming week, with temperatures generally above normal and rain chances below normal, at least until later in the week. There is a small chance for increasing moisture into the Southeast states mid- to-late week, but confidence in this is very low.
A strong mid level anticyclone will be parked over VA/NC early Tue, assuring warm/dry/stable air aloft and suppressing deep convection.
At the surface, a strong high centered out over the NW Atlantic well offshore of New England will continue to extend ESE through NC. The extended duration of long-fetch onshore-directed easterly flow along the southern edge of the surface ridge could bring some enhanced cloudiness into our area during the mid week, including clouds associated with an inland-progressing sea breeze, mainly across our southern sections. However, with low PW in place, any precipitation would be restricted to isolated shallow showers, with the strong mid level ridge greatly limiting thunder potential Tue. The mid level anticyclone's center is expected to wobble to the NE to be centered over NJ/NYC by early Thu, before then drifting back SE and S to off the NC coast or over the coastal Carolinas by Sat. The surface high's center is expected to drift southward during this time, all the while extending across NC, although models depict a lee trough developing over the W Piedmont by Sat as the surface ridge weakens.
The result is below normal PW persisting through much of Thu, then as the mid level anticyclone drifts down to our latitude, the veering of low-mid level winds to deep southeasterly is expected to draw improving Atlantic-source moisture and higher PWs into our area, particular across southern and western NC. So after very low to no rain chances through Wed, we should see pops returning to the area by Thu-Sat, low N and higher in the S and W, with upslope directed flow helping to enhance pops over the SE-facing slopes into the foothills.
It must be noted that a possible forecast complication arises by Wed night. The latest runs of a few of the deterministic global models depict an inverted trough or a closed surface low developing on the southern end of the surface ridge a few hundred miles E or ENE of the northern Bahamas by mid week. Such a low, if it forms, may be tropical (warm core) in nature, not an unexpected turn of events given long easterly low level fetch, the time of year, the extremely warm ocean waters, and the models' consensus of very weak upper level shear in this area. But the location and timing of such a feature on this handful of deterministic models still vary quite a bit, by hundreds of miles and 24-36 hrs, respectively, with varying strengths as well. The EC-AIFS doesn't show any discernible low or trough at all, nor does the LREF mean, and any signal within the parent ensemble means is, as one might expect, a bit washed out and tough to track, although the GEFS low centers are somewhat better clustered. At this point, the most likely scenario is an inverted trough or perhaps a low pushing westward and onshore somewhere between CHS and MIA between Wed night and midday Fri, with the better rain chances holding to our S as ridging dominates much of NC. But again, confidence is low, so stay tuned for later forecasts.
While the mid levels will be quite warm over the region this week, the comparatively cool surface ridge will keep our low level thicknesses near normal through Thu, as the most dangerous heat holds to our N over the southern Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley and Northeast states. Temperatures should still be roughly a category above normal Tue-Thu, with plentiful sunshine. After this time, however, there are strong indications of increasing heat across our area starting Fri but especially over next weekend, when the heat could become a significant health hazard for NC, with shade air temperatures peaking in the mid-upper 90s. -GIH
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 636 AM Sunday...
VFR conditions will mostly prevail through the 24 hr TAF period under dry high pressure. Observational trends have suggested that MVFR stratus is not likely to develop this morning in the Triad.
KGSO briefly went down to IFR, but has since scattered out. Dry and VFR conditions should largely prevail the rest of today. However, guidance again shows the possibility for MVFR ceilings to develop at KINT/KGSO early Monday morning. Have introduced a TEMPO group with MVFR ceilings at these sites to cover that possibility. Otherwise, light esely sfc flow will continue through the 24 hour TAF period.
Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through the outlook period.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 910 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A stationary front will hold to our south and southwest, across South Carolina and southwest North Carolina, through tonight, before weakening and dissipating. Deep high pressure will build over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas through mid week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 910 AM Sunday...
Little change to the going forecast through tonight. The main change was to introduce a slight chance of showers this morning across the Triad and lower highs slightly in this area, as well as across the far north. Satellite imagery reveals some decent lift/clouds associated with 925 mb WAA and moist upslope. Some light spotty showers were also present on radar. Still expect the main isolated storms this afternoon over the Foothills/mountains of western NC, but did introduce a chance over the Triad given the aforementioned analysis currently. Lowered highs a tad in the Triad owing to some low clouds and over the northern parts of central NC, where thicknesses are somewhat lower. In these areas, have highs closer to MOS guidance in the mid 80s. Elsewhere, highs should remain in the upper 80s to low 90s. The previous discussion follows below.
Sfc analysis early this morning depicted a fading sea breeze stretched across the central Piedmont/Sandhills. Further south, a stalled front was evident along the NC coast, extending southwest into southern SC. Aloft, the anomalous mid-level ridge continues to extend along the eastern seaboard.
Overall, today should be pretty similar to yesterday, mostly dry and hot. While low-level flow will remain primarily esely today, the deepest moisture will pool along the Foothills/Mountains to our south and west. This area should be the main focus for convection today (and along the front in south central SC). However, can't rule out a stray shower/storm moving into the southern Piedmont later this afternoon. Highs today will max out in the upper 80s/lower 90s.
Warm overnight lows in the upper 60s will persist tonight.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 217 AM Sunday...
The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify up into the northeast US on Sunday. This will promote yet another hot and dry day for central NC. Low-level esely flow will persist, but the deeper moisture/instability axis will shift further northwest into the TN Valley on Monday. Most afternoon convection will follow suit, as central NC remains primarily dry. Highs will once again reach the lower 90s. Dew points will struggle to mix out a bit more compared to Sunday, and thus expect a bit more uncomfortable sensible weather. While heat indices will stay well below advisory criteria, given the persistent hot temperatures we've experienced recently, it's advised to practice heat safety including hydrating and taking frequent breaks in shady areas if participating in outdoor activities.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 300 AM Sunday...
Hot and dry conditions will remain the story through much of the upcoming week, with temperatures generally above normal and rain chances below normal, at least until later in the week. There is a small chance for increasing moisture into the Southeast states mid- to-late week, but confidence in this is very low.
A strong mid level anticyclone will be parked over VA/NC early Tue, assuring warm/dry/stable air aloft and suppressing deep convection.
At the surface, a strong high centered out over the NW Atlantic well offshore of New England will continue to extend ESE through NC. The extended duration of long-fetch onshore-directed easterly flow along the southern edge of the surface ridge could bring some enhanced cloudiness into our area during the mid week, including clouds associated with an inland-progressing sea breeze, mainly across our southern sections. However, with low PW in place, any precipitation would be restricted to isolated shallow showers, with the strong mid level ridge greatly limiting thunder potential Tue. The mid level anticyclone's center is expected to wobble to the NE to be centered over NJ/NYC by early Thu, before then drifting back SE and S to off the NC coast or over the coastal Carolinas by Sat. The surface high's center is expected to drift southward during this time, all the while extending across NC, although models depict a lee trough developing over the W Piedmont by Sat as the surface ridge weakens.
The result is below normal PW persisting through much of Thu, then as the mid level anticyclone drifts down to our latitude, the veering of low-mid level winds to deep southeasterly is expected to draw improving Atlantic-source moisture and higher PWs into our area, particular across southern and western NC. So after very low to no rain chances through Wed, we should see pops returning to the area by Thu-Sat, low N and higher in the S and W, with upslope directed flow helping to enhance pops over the SE-facing slopes into the foothills.
It must be noted that a possible forecast complication arises by Wed night. The latest runs of a few of the deterministic global models depict an inverted trough or a closed surface low developing on the southern end of the surface ridge a few hundred miles E or ENE of the northern Bahamas by mid week. Such a low, if it forms, may be tropical (warm core) in nature, not an unexpected turn of events given long easterly low level fetch, the time of year, the extremely warm ocean waters, and the models' consensus of very weak upper level shear in this area. But the location and timing of such a feature on this handful of deterministic models still vary quite a bit, by hundreds of miles and 24-36 hrs, respectively, with varying strengths as well. The EC-AIFS doesn't show any discernible low or trough at all, nor does the LREF mean, and any signal within the parent ensemble means is, as one might expect, a bit washed out and tough to track, although the GEFS low centers are somewhat better clustered. At this point, the most likely scenario is an inverted trough or perhaps a low pushing westward and onshore somewhere between CHS and MIA between Wed night and midday Fri, with the better rain chances holding to our S as ridging dominates much of NC. But again, confidence is low, so stay tuned for later forecasts.
While the mid levels will be quite warm over the region this week, the comparatively cool surface ridge will keep our low level thicknesses near normal through Thu, as the most dangerous heat holds to our N over the southern Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley and Northeast states. Temperatures should still be roughly a category above normal Tue-Thu, with plentiful sunshine. After this time, however, there are strong indications of increasing heat across our area starting Fri but especially over next weekend, when the heat could become a significant health hazard for NC, with shade air temperatures peaking in the mid-upper 90s. -GIH
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 636 AM Sunday...
VFR conditions will mostly prevail through the 24 hr TAF period under dry high pressure. Observational trends have suggested that MVFR stratus is not likely to develop this morning in the Triad.
KGSO briefly went down to IFR, but has since scattered out. Dry and VFR conditions should largely prevail the rest of today. However, guidance again shows the possibility for MVFR ceilings to develop at KINT/KGSO early Monday morning. Have introduced a TEMPO group with MVFR ceilings at these sites to cover that possibility. Otherwise, light esely sfc flow will continue through the 24 hour TAF period.
Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through the outlook period.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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Wind History graph: RWI
(wind in knots)Suffolk
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:58 AM EDT 0.86 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:08 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:53 AM EDT 3.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:51 PM EDT 0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:24 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 07:27 PM EDT 3.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:58 AM EDT 0.86 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:08 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:53 AM EDT 3.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:51 PM EDT 0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:24 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 07:27 PM EDT 3.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Suffolk, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.9 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.5 |
| 4 am |
| 2.1 |
| 5 am |
| 2.6 |
| 6 am |
| 3 |
| 7 am |
| 3.1 |
| 8 am |
| 3 |
| 9 am |
| 2.5 |
| 10 am |
| 1.8 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.1 |
Hollidays Point (bridge)
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:26 AM EDT 0.71 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:08 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:07 AM EDT 2.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:19 PM EDT 0.54 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:24 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:41 PM EDT 3.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:26 AM EDT 0.71 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:08 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:07 AM EDT 2.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:19 PM EDT 0.54 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:24 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:41 PM EDT 3.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Hollidays Point (bridge), Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.5 |
| 4 am |
| 2 |
| 5 am |
| 2.4 |
| 6 am |
| 2.5 |
| 7 am |
| 2.4 |
| 8 am |
| 2.1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.7 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 3 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.3 |
Raleigh/Durham, NC,
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