Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 1:54 AM   Moonset 2:24 PM

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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 320 Pm Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt, veering se. Gusts up to 20 kt early. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. Sun - SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. Sun night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Mon night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 320 Pm Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - High pressure will extend across the area through early this upcoming week. A cold front could approach late in the week.

FXUS62 KCHS 012003 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 403 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will extend across the area through early this upcoming week. A cold front could approach late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Afternoon composite analysis reveals sharp short-wave ridging across the Carolinas into the Atlantic waters and attending surface high pressure centered over the mid Atlantic. Short- wave trough axis is close behind, stretching down through the Gulf Coast states. Corridor of precipitation ahead of the trough has decayed substantially over the last several hours while core of a convective complex is diving into the eastern Gulf region. But we are getting higher cloud cover (convective blow off) streaming into the region, along with a smattering of heating of the day Cu development.

Tonight: Short-wave ridge axis and attending surface high pressure center will be slipping off the Atlantic coast while low amplitude troughiness slowly develops across the southeast and axis of higher PWAT/dewpoint air nudges into the region (PWAT values climb to >1 inch by 12Z Sunday). Given modest warm advection forcing and larger scale QG-Forcing for ascent ahead of the trough edging into the region, there may be some shower activity to our west that tries to sneak into the far western part of the forecast area overnight. In addition, high-res guidance has also been hinting at showers kicking off in the Atlantic coastal waters that try to make a run toward the coast overnight. Precip probabilities are not zero, especially along the coast. But given the low probs, we are maintaining the dry forecast with this forecast cycle.

Given increasing cloud cover and dewpoints, overnight lows will not be as cool as the last few nights with lows spanning the 60s...possibly some upper 50s in the normally cold spots.
Upper 60s to low 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Sunday: Even though we're under the influence of high pressure, there is a short wave that moves through aloft. That along with increasing moisture courtesy of a southerly low level flow, e might actually get rain in some places. However, since MLCAPE isn't overly impressive, there isn't much deep layer shear, and condensation pressure deficits are around 100 mb, we aren't inclined to show anything more than slight chance/chance PoPs. Max temperatures were derived from the MOS, NBM and NBM50Pct, equating to highs mainly in the middle 80s away from the coast.

Sunday night: Withe the passage of the short wave, NVA develops, and with nocturnal influences any early convection far inland on the sea breeze will come to an end. Some of the guidance suggests that marine activity could attempt to make a run for some coastal sections of South carolina where the low level convergence is the best. However, other guidance keeps any convection offshore, which is where we leaned toward at this point. Within a southerly synoptic flow our low temperatures won't be as cool as recent nights.

Monday: Surface high pressure is still in control, with maybe some weak lee side troughing forming. Another short wave might approach late, and that along with additional moisture will promote at least some convection. But once again, the MLCAPE and deep layered shear are rather weak, and condensation pressure deficits are once again close to 100 mb, so nothing more than slight chance/chance PoPs.
Something to watch for would be the DCAPE values, which are potentially near 1000 J/kg due to dry air above 700 mb. This could lead to some strong wind risk in the taller t-storms, and where boundary interactions occur. Low level thickness and model consensus supports highs in the upper 80s to perhaps 90F inland from the beaches.

Tuesday: Ridging develops aloft, so the associated subsidence will prevent much convection from developing. There is more MLCAPE available, and with the sea breeze and the lee trough nearby, we still show isolated PoPs, mainly inland. Utilizing a mixture of the MOS and NBM guidance with 850 mb temperatures and the low level thickness, we arrive at highs a bit warmer than on Monday, and many places will reach 90F or greater. And with that comes some higher dew points over the coastal corridor.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Flat riding or quasi-zonal flow will prevail aloft through Thursday, before a deep upper low develops near the Great Lakes late in the week. We'll still be south of the associated trough, but this pattern will force a cold front to likely approach late in the week.
For now we don't have anything more than 20/30 PoPs, especially since it's difficult to get cold fronts into our neighborhood this time of year. We feel more confidence on hotter conditions as 850 mb temperatures that reach 17-18C Wednesday, are as high as 19-20C by Friday. Max temperatures are look to be in the 90-95F range through the period, provided the cold front doesn't get this far southeast.
Associated heat indices Thursday and Friday could be near 100F in many areas.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 18z Sunday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Conditions will generally be VFR through the period.

MARINE
Tonight: Surface high pressure over the mid Atlantic will slip into the Atlantic tonight with northeasterly/easterly flow currently across the coastal waters veering southeasterly tonight. A touch of gustiness (gusts up to 20 knots) out there this afternoon will diminish tonight with speeds largely 10 to 15 knots. Seas will run 2 to 4 feet, highest in the Georgia outer waters.

Sunday through Thursday night: No real marine concerns outside of any convection, with high pressure generally in control. Even with afternoon/evening sea breeze influences, and nocturnal low level jetting, winds will mainly be 15 kt or less, with seas no more than 3 or 4 feet.

Rip Currents: There were numerous reports of rip currents at Tybee Beach earlier today, mainly due to the strong long shore current reported by the lifeguards. Sunday could be similar, but given the lack of swells, and both the in-house Rip Current Calculator and Rip Current MOS showing low risk for all beaches, that's what we have at this time.

COASTAL FLOODING/TIDES
Tides are running above predicted levels, and with higher astronomical tides upcoming due to the Perigee early Sunday, and the New Moon on Thursday, there could be some minor coastal flooding issues, especially over coastal Charleston and coastal Colleton County. The first high tide of potential concern is the evening high tide Monday, but each evening tide through mid to late week to again be an issue.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Purrysburg Landing
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Sat -- 01:29 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:06 AM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:59 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:38 PM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Purrysburg Landing, Savannah River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Savannah River Entrance
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Sat -- 01:47 AM EDT     1.80 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:42 AM EDT     -1.93 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:26 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:08 PM EDT     2.20 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:47 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:16 PM EDT     -2.05 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current, knots

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