Sunrise 5:33 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 4:16 AM   Moonset 8:12 PM

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FXUS63 KLSX 060349 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1049 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather is expected through Friday before chances increase (30- 60%) Friday night into Sunday, with the greatest chance across southeast Missouri on Saturday.

- Temperatures will be near or just below normal into early next week.



SHORT TERM
(Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The cold front that has slowly moved across the CWA today is the in the process of moving east of the area. As it does, it is taking the last of the showers with it. The clouds will also clear out of the area by early this evening as drier air moves into the area. The HRRR continues to show the area in northwest flow aloft with none of its members producing rain through tomorrow night. The surface flow will remain from the west-northwest as a surface low remains over the northern Great Lakes. This will keep a relatively cool and dry flow of air into the area which will continue to favor near normal temperatures for early June.

Britt

LONG TERM
(Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The dry weather will continue into Friday as the global models show a large area of high pressure moving across the Mississippi Valley.
Rain chances will increase as we go into the weekend as a couple of troughs move across the area in northwest flow aloft, though there is increased differences between the deterministic models with the timing and depth of these troughs. For now, there is reasonable agreement that a MCS will move across the southern part of the CWA late Friday night into early Saturday followed by a cold front later in the day. Rain chances Saturday night and Sunday will be confined to the southern half of the CWA closer to the slowly exiting front while early next week still looks dry. I have some low chances (20%) by next Wednesday when the global models are showing another trough dropping southeast out of Canada.

Temperatures will stay close to normal through the middle of next week with 850mb temperatures in the 10-15C range. Confidence in the temperature forecast is medium to high given the NBM IQR of 5-7 degrees.

Britt

AVIATION
(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Dry weather and VFR flight conditions will continue through the entire TAF period. A dry cold front will traverse across the area overnight into early Thursday morning. Winds behind the front will increase and become gusty between 15-18 UTC on Thursday. Expect scattered mid-level clouds to accompany the cold front.

MMG/Glass

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.

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