Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kane, IL
June 1, 2024 3:14 PM CDT (20:14 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:35 AM Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 1:32 AM Moonset 2:06 PM |
FXUS63 KLSX 011948 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 248 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will diminish by early this evening, with areas of fog possible overnight into early Sunday morning.
- Unsettled weather returns late Sunday night and persists into midweek with nearly continous chances for showers and thunderstorms, however no all day rains. Temperaturs will largely be above normal during this period.
- A pattern change will result in cooler temperatures, near to perhaps slightly below normal, during the later part of the week and into early next weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
The axis of the mid level trof and attendant surface trof were near the MS River early this afternoon. The best coverage of showers were along and to the east of them, with scattered showers back into the cyclonic flow west of the MS River. Despite SBCAPE of 750-1500+ J/KG centered in roughly the same region across far eastern MO and western IL we have yet to see any thunder, seemingly owing to the lack of more vigorous updrafts. The threat of showers and perhaps still a rumble of thunder will persist across eastern MO into western IL through the remainder of the afternoon into early evening, sliding east with time in concert with the advancement of the upper and surface trofs with activity dissipating in IL this evening with loss of heating.
For the remainder of tonight we will see diminishing clouds across portions of central and eastern MO, while clouds should persist longer along and to the east of the MS River. The clearing clouds in the western CWA along with light winds and the recent rainfall seem like a pretty good recipe for fog overnight into Sunday morning. We will need to monitor this tonight as it's certainly possible we could see some locally dense fog.
Weak surface ridging will generally dominate on Sunday. After the dissipation of the morning fog, we should see cumuliform clouds and warmer temperatures that will be closer to normal. There is a small chance of showers and thunderstorms in central MO late in the afternoon associated with a weak impulse in the quasi-zonal flow and perhaps an old boundary originating in the Plains.
Glass
LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
A more unsettled pattern will unfold late Sunday night and persist into midweek. Sunday night through Tuesday, a series of weak migratory short waves in the quasi-zonal flow will bring thunderstorm chances to the area. On Sunday night we actually could see precipitation in two ways: Scattered WAA LLJ driven showers and thunderstorms late across parts of eastern MO and western IL, and/or a decaying Plains MCS and associated boundary moving into the area late. This remnant boundary or re-energized MCS seems like it will be a catalyst for additional showers and thunderstorms on Monday and perhaps into Monday night, especially as the day progresses and it interacts with an increasingly unstable air mass. Otherwise a more prominent northern stream short wave trof that will be the impetus for a pattern change will bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms as it and the associated cold front traverse the region late Tuesday- Wednesday. While there are some timing differences in the cold front passage on Wednesday, present indications are the highest POPs will be centered on Tuesday afternoon and night.
The deterministic and ensembles are coming into better agreement later next week and into next weekend with the ensuing pattern change and development of an upper low in the vicinity of the Great Lakes with a broad trof extending southeastward through the Middle Atlantic. As mentioned yesterday this will result in northwest flow across our area during the later half of next week and into early next weekend. The above normal temperatures for the Monday-Wednesday period will be replaced by near to perhaps slightly below normal temperatures Thursday-Saturday as a series of weak short waves in the northwest flow bring periodic surface trofs or weakly defined cold fronts through the region. There are a lack of strong signals for precipitation during this time frame but the flow regime suggests that it certainly can't be ruled out.
Glass
AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Scattered showers will primarily impact KUIN and the St. Louis area terminals this afternoon with the best thunder potential from around 20-22z. Flight conditions will largely be MVFR. Between 22-00z the majority of the showers should move east of the terminals with this activity decaying early this evening across SW IL. Flight conditions should at least temporarily improve to VFR across much of the area this evening, but overnight we will see a mix of fog and lower stratus that lasts into mid Sunday morning.
The visibility in the fog could certainly be lower at KCOU and KJEF that the current forecast near 1SM. By mid-late morning on Sunday, fog should have dissipated and ceilings should be improving.
Glass
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 248 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will diminish by early this evening, with areas of fog possible overnight into early Sunday morning.
- Unsettled weather returns late Sunday night and persists into midweek with nearly continous chances for showers and thunderstorms, however no all day rains. Temperaturs will largely be above normal during this period.
- A pattern change will result in cooler temperatures, near to perhaps slightly below normal, during the later part of the week and into early next weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
The axis of the mid level trof and attendant surface trof were near the MS River early this afternoon. The best coverage of showers were along and to the east of them, with scattered showers back into the cyclonic flow west of the MS River. Despite SBCAPE of 750-1500+ J/KG centered in roughly the same region across far eastern MO and western IL we have yet to see any thunder, seemingly owing to the lack of more vigorous updrafts. The threat of showers and perhaps still a rumble of thunder will persist across eastern MO into western IL through the remainder of the afternoon into early evening, sliding east with time in concert with the advancement of the upper and surface trofs with activity dissipating in IL this evening with loss of heating.
For the remainder of tonight we will see diminishing clouds across portions of central and eastern MO, while clouds should persist longer along and to the east of the MS River. The clearing clouds in the western CWA along with light winds and the recent rainfall seem like a pretty good recipe for fog overnight into Sunday morning. We will need to monitor this tonight as it's certainly possible we could see some locally dense fog.
Weak surface ridging will generally dominate on Sunday. After the dissipation of the morning fog, we should see cumuliform clouds and warmer temperatures that will be closer to normal. There is a small chance of showers and thunderstorms in central MO late in the afternoon associated with a weak impulse in the quasi-zonal flow and perhaps an old boundary originating in the Plains.
Glass
LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
A more unsettled pattern will unfold late Sunday night and persist into midweek. Sunday night through Tuesday, a series of weak migratory short waves in the quasi-zonal flow will bring thunderstorm chances to the area. On Sunday night we actually could see precipitation in two ways: Scattered WAA LLJ driven showers and thunderstorms late across parts of eastern MO and western IL, and/or a decaying Plains MCS and associated boundary moving into the area late. This remnant boundary or re-energized MCS seems like it will be a catalyst for additional showers and thunderstorms on Monday and perhaps into Monday night, especially as the day progresses and it interacts with an increasingly unstable air mass. Otherwise a more prominent northern stream short wave trof that will be the impetus for a pattern change will bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms as it and the associated cold front traverse the region late Tuesday- Wednesday. While there are some timing differences in the cold front passage on Wednesday, present indications are the highest POPs will be centered on Tuesday afternoon and night.
The deterministic and ensembles are coming into better agreement later next week and into next weekend with the ensuing pattern change and development of an upper low in the vicinity of the Great Lakes with a broad trof extending southeastward through the Middle Atlantic. As mentioned yesterday this will result in northwest flow across our area during the later half of next week and into early next weekend. The above normal temperatures for the Monday-Wednesday period will be replaced by near to perhaps slightly below normal temperatures Thursday-Saturday as a series of weak short waves in the northwest flow bring periodic surface trofs or weakly defined cold fronts through the region. There are a lack of strong signals for precipitation during this time frame but the flow regime suggests that it certainly can't be ruled out.
Glass
AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Scattered showers will primarily impact KUIN and the St. Louis area terminals this afternoon with the best thunder potential from around 20-22z. Flight conditions will largely be MVFR. Between 22-00z the majority of the showers should move east of the terminals with this activity decaying early this evening across SW IL. Flight conditions should at least temporarily improve to VFR across much of the area this evening, but overnight we will see a mix of fog and lower stratus that lasts into mid Sunday morning.
The visibility in the fog could certainly be lower at KCOU and KJEF that the current forecast near 1SM. By mid-late morning on Sunday, fog should have dissipated and ceilings should be improving.
Glass
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSET ST CHARLES COUNTY SMARTT,MO | 17 sm | 20 min | WNW 11 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 75°F | 64°F | 69% | 29.87 |
St. Louis, MO,
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