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FXUS65 KSLC 312125 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 325 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

SYNOPSIS
A series of weak cold fronts will brush the area through early next week, bringing brief fluctuations temperatures and a few chances of showers/thunderstorms to all but southern Utah. Hotter temperatures arrive by later in the week.

SHORT TERM
Satellite and radar analysis this afternoon reveals an area of shallow cumulus with embedded weak radar returns stretching from roughly Cedar City to Price, with a trough axis just upstream currently over Nevada. This weak trough axis is expected to quickly push through the region by this evening, with the meager convection in place rapidly receding as is slides through. Vertical development this afternoon has been quite limited thanks to minimal CAPE - barely 100 J/Kg per latest SPC mesoanalysis. That said, with surface analysis showing dewpoints in the 30s and resultant DCAPE of around a 1000 on the mesoanalysis, there is still a risk of microburst winds into the early evening, especially from the Wasatch Plateau eastward.

Brief ridging early tomorrow combined with increased southwest flow will bring a warmer day, with the Wasatch Front reaching the upper 80s and lower Washington County pushing the upper 90s.
Better instability combined with a bit of shear over northern Utah will spark isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, especially over the higher terrain east of I-15 and from around Heber northward. Microburst winds remain the primary threat. A few convective-allowing models suggest that convection could extend as far west as around the Tooele Valley, so have introduced a slight chance to the Wasatch Front. A weak and mostly dry cold front will then slide through northern Utah later Saturday night.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Sunday), Issued 257 AM MDT...
Next week continues to show us a pattern of cool, hot, cool, hotter sprinkled in with chances for rain and thunderstorms early in the week. So let's break this down a little more.

A stalled frontal boundary is forecast to sit across Utah early Sunday morning, having passed through northern Utah Saturday. Ever so slightly cooler temperatures are forecast behind this boundary with otherwise similar temperature forecast for the rest of the state Sunday afternoon compared to Saturday. As this boundary stalls, there will remain a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in portions of the state. The difficult part of the forecast here is where these showers are most likely. The latest model runs are honing in on north and eastern Utah.

The latest model runs for Monday's weather system, moreso impacting areas north of us, does hint at a bit more of southward progression. This increases the chance for rain and thunderstorms Monday evening for about the northern third of Utah. What will make this system different is the amount of moisture associated with it. We are looking at PW values in the 180 to 200 percentiles of normal coming in. So, this'll bear watching of course if this southward progression trend continues. Consistent with this weather system is the passage of another cold front, which looks to pass further south than the Saturday front. A much more noticeable temperature drop will be noted for Tuesday in the wake of this front.

The cooler temperatures won't last long because a strong ridge of high pressure is likely to remain in the forecast for the rest of the week. While temperatures won't be particularly hot in the north Wednesday; in the south triple digit temperatures remain in the forecast. A 70% chance to exceed 100 degrees still exists across lower Washington County which will only increase headed into Thursday. Northern and central valleys in Utah toward the latter half of the week are forecast into the low to mid 90s.

AVIATION
KSLC...Northwesterly winds around 5-10kts are expected to continue until a transition to light and southeasterly around 06- 08z. VFR conditions will prevail. There is a 10% chance of a few isolated showers nearby after 12z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue until ~04z across a horizontally- oriented, narrow area just north of KBCE and south of KDTA. These showers will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds. Light, diurnally-driven winds overnight will give way to stronger southwesterly winds Saturday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER
Warmer conditions are in store to start the weekend with breezy southwest winds and dry conditions. There is a low chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms for northern Utah, generally in the Uinta-Wasatch-Cache NF. A weak and generally dry cold front Sunday will a bit cooler temperatures from around Manti northward, with continued warm and very dry conditions over southern Utah and breezy afternoon southwest winds. Wetting rain chances with this front will be very low, with the only real possibility in the Uintas. Another storm system is expected to brush northern Utah Monday, with a low-end chance of light precipitation and slightly elevated RHs. This will also lead to continued breezy southwest winds over southern Utah.

From Tuesday onward, expect a notable warming trend as ridge of high pressure builds into the region. By Thursday, most locations will reach their warmest temperatures yet this year. There remains a low but non-zero chance of elevated moisture aloft working into the region by late in the week, which would bring a threat of elevated showers/thunderstorms.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.

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