Sunrise 5:17 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 2:18 AM   Moonset 2:51 PM

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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Tue Mar 30 2021
Today - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ300 141 Pm Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure centered over the applachians and the mid atlantic this afternoon shifts offshore Sunday. A disturbance approaches late Sunday and moves through into early Monday. High pressure then builds across the region from southeast canada through Tuesday night. The high moves out in to the atlantic for the latter half of the week.

FXUS61 KOKX 011745 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 145 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure centered over the Appalachians and the Mid Atlantic this afternoon shifts offshore Sunday. A disturbance approaches late Sunday and passes nearby into early Monday. High pressure then builds across the region from Southeast Canada through Tuesday night. The high moves out in to the Atlantic for the latter half of the week. A frontal system approaches from the west towards the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
No changes for this update as the forecast remains on track with deep layer ridging now settling over the area. The only slight adjustment was to have a bit more of a sea breeze present across the eastern most sections of LI and SE CT for the late afternoon. Previous discussion follows.

A pleasant start to the month of June and meteorological summer across the local Tri- State with surface high pressure nearby and deep layer ridging settling in.

A light northwest flow around the top of the high gradually backs west through the day as the high shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast.
Deep mixing up to 750 mb should allow much of the region away from the immediate shoreline to achieve lower 80s by lunchtime, or 5 to 10 degrees above normal for early June. Only caveat is the potential sea breeze pushing inland in the afternoon hours, dropping temps back into the 70s for coastal locales. Subsidence should mitigate most cloud cover, absent what little cu can develop. The minimal moisture with surface dew points in the 40s and low 50s will only add to the comfort of the air mass, sparing for now the higher humidity that summer often brings.

Tonight, a shearing shortwave lifting northeast across the Midwest will attempt to shunt the ridging in place locally. This will introduce high clouds overnight ahead of the shortwave, but conditions remain dry as temperatures fall back into the 50s and 60s once again.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
High pressure sits offshore on Sunday, while the ridging aloft flattens with the approach of the weakening shortwave. High clouds gradually thicken and lower through the day, eventually bringing the chance for a few rain showers by the evening and overnight hours.
Coverage appears limited however with weak forcing and moisture to work with. A lack of instability should preclude most thunderstorm activity, but a rogue rumble of thunder can't be entirely ruled out.

Still some range in the solutions offered by global guidance, with the GEFS farther north with the disturbance than the GEPS or ENS on the 00z runs. It's possible portions of the region, especially into southern Connecticut, remain entirely dry should the southern solutions verify, but regardless, overall QPF is expected to be light.

The weak surface feature passes near of just south of the region early Monday. Surface high pressure then begins to return from the north, though the lingering frontal boundary to the south could instigate a spotty shower into the afternoon. Temperatures during the day range from the mid 70s to low 80s. Dry conditions prevail Monday night with temperate lows in the 50s and 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Mid levels exhibit a transition from weak ridging around midweek to a large approaching cutoff mid level low Thursday into the end of the week. This general mid level pattern shift is conveyed by the grand ensemble within the 12z May 31st LREF.

Mid level ridging appears to be relatively strongest Tuesday through Wednesday while at the surface, high pressure builds in locally from the north. The origin for the high pressure is in the Canadian Maritimes. Mainly dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Wednesday.

For Thursday into the end of the week, a warm front approaches Thursday and eventually moves across by early Friday. A cold front then follows for Friday into Friday night. Surface trough pattern remains for the end of the week and towards the weekend. Weather pattern appears to be turning more unsettled and potentially more showery.

The airmass will become more moist with the forecast also having more chances of rain, especially from Wednesday night onward when POPs of at least 25 percent are present within the forecast region for at least a part of the region. Overall, the winds will have more onshore component as well, helping to eventually raise the dewpoints.

There could be a few thunderstorms embedded within the showers but probabilities for this are just slight, mainly in the timeframe of Thursday through Friday.

Temperature do not appear to deviate too significantly from climatological normals during this long term forecast period.
Forecast daytime highs mainly in the 70s to near 80. Forecast lows at night into early morning mainly between 55 and 65.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure continues to move into the region with its center moving south of the area into tonight.

VFR.

Wind speeds at or below 10 kt through much of the TAF period.
Any winds from the N/NW will veer to the West by this afternoon.
Light and variable wind expected tonight for most terminals. A light W/SW wind will reestablish tomorrow mid-morning at or less than 10 kt. Sea breeze enhancement expected tomorrow afternoon to allow for a predominantly S wind at coastal terminals, mainly KJFK, KBDR, KGON, and KISP.

There is uncertainty with the timing of the sea breeze, making for a lower confidence wind direction forecast today. KJFK, KLGA, KISP and KGON have highest chances of getting sea breezes. KBDR, KHPN, KEWR and KTEB have relatively lower chances of getting sea breezes.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for wind direction this afternoon depending on the timing of the sea breeze. Sea breeze arrival time could be off by 1 to 2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday PM - Sunday Night: VFR through the day Sunday. MVFR possible in showers Sunday night.

Monday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible for the day into night in showers.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in rain showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through late next week, with seas on the ocean generally 3 ft or less.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Water temperatures remain around 60 degrees around the region.
This poses the threat for hypothermia to anyone immersed in the water. Small boats, canoes, and kayaks should plan accordingly if recreating this and use extreme caution to avoid this threat.

There is a low rip current risk through the weekend due to low seas on the ocean and winds mainly 10 kt or less.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Essex
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Sat -- 01:18 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:06 AM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:30 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:39 PM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Essex, Connecticut, Tide feet

The Race
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Sat -- 01:31 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:18 AM EDT     2.54 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:35 AM EDT     -2.93 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:44 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:43 PM EDT     2.94 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:11 PM EDT     -3.33 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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