Sunrise 5:14 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 5:24 PM   Moonset 2:30 AM

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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Tue Mar 30 2021
Today - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ300 934 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure stretching in from the western atlantic remains in control through late this week. A frontal boundary approaches from the north on Friday and likely stalls over or just north of the area through Saturday. That front lifts north as a warm front Saturday night and another cold front approaches from the west Sunday into Monday.

FXUS61 KOKX 181422 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1022 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure stretching in from the western Atlantic remains in control through late this week. A frontal boundary approaches from the north on Friday and likely stalls over or just north of the area through Saturday. That front lifts north as a warm front Saturday night and another cold front approaches from the west Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Forecast remains on track.

The upper level ridge continues to build over the area today with a 5908m observed 500 mb height on the 12z KOKX RAOB sounding. Rising heights are expected leading to increasing subsidence. Some CAMs have hinted at isolated convection over Orange County this afternoon, but think this is over done due to middle level capping and the increased subsidence.

High temperatures are forecast to rise into the upper 80s to low 90s for much of the inland areas. These hot temperatures combined with the added moisture will result in heat index values of 95-100 degrees for NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and portions of western interior southern CT. As a result, a heat advisory remains in effect for these areas. Coastal areas and NYC will remain relatively cooler with a flow off the ocean preventing high temperatures from rising more than the upper 80s to near 90. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The strong ridge remains in place Wednesday and Thursday with continued heat over the entire region. The heat intensifies slightly and expands a bit to the east for Wednesday and even moreso for Thursday. The main headline change at during this timeframe is the addition of northern Middlesex and northern New London counties in Connecticut for Wednesday through Thursday for heat index values of 95-100. It is likely that heat advisories will be expanded closer to the coast on Thursday as heat continues to expand.

Low temperatures each night will be warm, generally in the upper 60s to middle 70s with the warmest spots in and around the NYC metro.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
**Key Points**

* The heat wave is expected to continue in the long term period, potentially peaking on Friday and continuing through the weekend for some locations.

* The combination of the heat and humidity will produce heat index values of 95 to potentially up to around 105 during this time frame away from the coast. The most impactful effects from the heat will be felt further away from the cooler effects of the ocean, particularly across the Lower Hudson Valley, northeast NJ and interior CT.

* Not much relief at night with warm and humid conditions as overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to the middle 70s, with dew points remaining well into the 60s.

By Friday morning, the upper level ridge over the area will have likely already flattened in response to an upper level trough moving through northern Canada, resulting in a zonal flow over the area.
High pressure centered offshore will also continue to weaken and drift east. This pattern still results in hot and humid conditions across the area with the heat wave potentially peaking Friday and continuing through Sunday for some locations (mainly northeast NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley).

On Friday, a frontal boundary will be approaching from the north and will likely stall over or just north of the area through Saturday before lifting north Saturday night. Given the frontal boundary and some weak disturbances moving through aloft, there will be chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday as well as increased cloud cover. This has the potential to affect high temperatures and have trended highs down just slightly for now. Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue through the weekend. Although there are no hydrologic concerns at the moment, it is worth noting that there may be a chance for any shower or thunderstorm to produce heavy downpours given pwats around 2 inches. A cold front will approach from the west Sunday into Monday and likely move through sometime later on Monday, bringing at least a brief change in airmass.

It is important to exercise caution with the intense heat and high humidity, thus it is important to take precautions to protect one's health, particularly those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure remains in place offshore through the TAF period.

VFR with a S-SW flow through the TAF period.

S-SW flow increasing to near 10-15 kt this afternoon into the early evening with gusts 20-25 kt. Not every terminal is expected to have gusts. Winds drop below 10 kt tonight.

There could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm near KSWF this afternoon, but low confidence in occurrence at this time.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Start and end timing of gusts could be a few hours off from the TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday and Thursday: VFR. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early evening.

Friday and Saturday: Potential for MVFR or lower conditions in showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon/evening hours.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
With high pressure largely in control, sub Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend. Winds and waves may start to increase towards the end of the day on Sunday as a southerly flow picks up ahead of a cold front.

HYDROLOGY
A stalled frontal boundary could bring showers and thunderstorms to the area Friday through the weekend and then a cold front moving through the area early next week will bring additional shower/thunderstorm chances. It remains too soon to determine whether there will be any hydrologic impacts. Any impacts would likely be very localized and more of the minor urban type.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There remains a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches today and Wednesday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ005-006.
Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ007-008.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108.
MARINE...None.

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