Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 2:10 AM   Moonset 3:21 PM

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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 110 Am Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Rest of tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 ft at 4 seconds. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 ft at 4 seconds. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 ft at 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 110 Am Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - High pressure will move off the carolina coast. A backdoor cold front may stall across north carolina Tuesday into Wednesday, likely remaining north of the cape fear area.

FXUS62 KILM 020548 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 148 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will move farther off the Carolina coast this coming week. Southerly winds will bring warmer and more humid air northward, resulting in spotty mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday. A cold front could reach the Carolinas by Friday.

UPDATE
As of 1:45 AM EDT, ridge axis lies just east of the area, pushing into the Outer Banks. Meanwhile, the shortwave is moving its way through north Georgia, bottoming out near Atlanta and picking up again near Athens. PVA ahead of this shortwave is a bit stronger than I expected, and has brought enough forcing to squeeze out some light rain at Thomson, GA.

Some of the high-resolution models are starting to pick up on this activity (not that it's much to speak of). May need to very slightly increase the rain chances for the SC Pee Dee region as we edge closer to sunrise this morning, but I want to see more out of the trends first. This shortwave carries more moisture with it, but it doesn't seem to travel fast enough before it runs into much drier air east of the SC Midlands. Broadly speaking, much ado about nothing.

Elsewhere, updated 06Z TAF discussion found below.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Highly amplified ridge axis now over the area while weak high pressure resides at the surface. The ridge will remain progressive in nature through Sunday pushed off or weakened by weak shortwaves from the west. The overall forecast remains consistent as the airmass modifies from both a temperature and dewpoint standpoint along with increasing intervals of mid level clouds. Some guidance wants to develop a few showers late Sunday afternoon mainly western areas but this seems a stretch at this point. Temperatures will tack on about five degrees or so from todays values. Lows in the lower 60s with highs in the middle 80s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Return flow in full swing around offshore high pressure for the start of the week. This will warm temps to seasonable for the short term, with lows in the mid to upper 60s and highs Monday in the mid to upper 80s. A weak mid-upper ridge in place Monday, but there will still be enough moisture and forcing with the sea breeze to produce widely scattered afternoon storms.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Slightly above normal temperatures Tuesday through Thursday with continued WAA and slowly increasing dewpoints. Despite lingering weak ridge aloft Tuesday into early Wednesday, still expecting diurnal convection along sea breeze and Piedmont trough both days. Warmth and moisture peak on Thursday providing plenty of instability, with some upper level support combining with local boundaries to produce scattered storms. Current forecast has heat indices Thursday approaching triple digits. A front is forecasted to move across sometime Friday, associated with a stacked low over the northern Great Lakes, with a drying trend possible heading into next weekend behind the front.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR for the 06Z TAF period. There is a low potential for afternoon convective showers Sunday after 18Z affecting KFLO and KLBT, but confidence is much too low to include in the TAFs.

Extended Outlook...Isolated mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Wednesday, becoming a little more widespread Thursday.

MARINE
Through Sunday...Quiet as can be across the waters through Sunday. The weak return/southeast flow of 10-12 knots at best will continue essentially unimpeded. Significant seas will represent the winds well hovering around 2 feet.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Southerly flow at 5-10 kts, with afternoon gusts around 15 kts, continues around offshore high pressure Sunday night through Wednesday. Seas around 2 feet from SE swell and S wind chop. South-southwest winds pick up on Thursday as a front approaches, with sustained speeds increasing to 15-20 kts. Seas in turn build to 3-4 ft late Thursday as the southerly component increases. Chances for late night/early morning storms over the waters increase through mid week, with thunderstorm chances all day Thursday.

CLIMATE
Climatological Spring 2024 numbers are in and record-breaking warmth occurred at Wilmington, NC where temperature records date back to 1874.

Wilmington recorded its warmest spring on record with an average March-May temperature of 66.4 degrees, breaking the record of 66.3 set back in the Spring of 2012. Although high temperatures were warm, it was exceptional warmth for overnight lows that really helped break the record.

In North Myrtle Beach this was the second warmest spring since records began with an average spring temperature of 65.7 degrees. 2012 remains the warmest spring on record there.

Inland at Florence, SC and Lumberton, NC, both stations recorded their sixth warmest spring on record with average temperatures of 66.6 and 65.3 degrees, respectively.

Detailed spring climatological data is available in the seasonal climate summaries (CLS) text products issued earlier this afternoon.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Yaupon Beach
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Sat -- 02:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:22 AM EDT     4.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:27 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:01 PM EDT     5.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:05 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Yaupon Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet

Cape Fear
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Sat -- 02:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:28 AM EDT     4.50 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:48 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:07 PM EDT     4.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:26 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Fear, North Carolina, Tide feet

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