Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 2:24 AM   Moonset 3:32 PM

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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 324 Am Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Today - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds. Tonight - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 7 seconds. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.Mon night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Tue night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Wed - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 324 Am Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - High pressure will extend across the area through Wednesday. A cold front will slowly move through on Friday, followed by high pressure.

FXUS62 KCHS 020530 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 130 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will extend across the area through early this upcoming week. A cold front could approach late in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Early this morning: SPC Mesoanalysis shows that the atmosphere has moistened over the last 24 hours, with precipitable water values of 1" or higher now covering the western half of the forecast area. This increased moisture is within the area where a shortwave trough aloft is nudging in from the west and the result is some light shower activity that is streaming to the NNE across central Georgia and the South Carolina Midlands. This activity should remain to our west, but radar imagery shows isolated light showers trying to develop across the coastal waters within some subtle low-level convergence. We have maintained an area of 20 percent rain chances across the waters and along the coast from around Tybee Island up through Edisto for a few hours. If any measurable rainfall occurs, it won't be much.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
Sunday: Even though we're under the influence of high pressure, there is a short wave that moves through aloft. That along with increasing moisture courtesy of a southerly low level flow, e might actually get rain in some places. However, since MLCAPE isn't overly impressive, there isn't much deep layer shear, and condensation pressure deficits are around 100 mb, we aren't inclined to show anything more than slight chance/chance PoPs.
Max temperatures were derived from the MOS, NBM and NBM50Pct, equating to highs mainly in the middle 80s away from the coast.

Sunday night: With the the passage of the short wave, NVA develops, and with nocturnal influences any early convection far inland on the sea breeze will come to an end. Some of the guidance suggests that marine activity could attempt to make a run for some coastal sections of South carolina where the low level convergence is the best. However, other guidance keeps any convection offshore, which is where we leaned toward at this point. Within a southerly synoptic flow our low temperatures won't be as cool as recent nights.

Monday: Surface high pressure is still in control, with maybe some weak lee side troughing forming. Another short wave might approach late, and that along with additional moisture will promote at least some convection. But once again, the MLCAPE and deep layered shear are rather weak, and condensation pressure deficits are once again close to 100 mb, so nothing more than slight chance/chance PoPs. Something to watch for would be the DCAPE values, which are potentially near 1000 J/kg due to dry air above 700 mb. This could lead to some strong wind risk in the taller t-storms, and where boundary interactions occur. Low level thickness and model consensus supports highs in the upper 80s to perhaps 90F inland from the beaches.

Tuesday: Ridging develops aloft, so the associated subsidence will prevent much convection from developing. There is more MLCAPE available, and with the sea breeze and the lee trough nearby, we still show isolated PoPs, mainly inland. Utilizing a mixture of the MOS and NBM guidance with 850 mb temperatures and the low level thickness, we arrive at highs a bit warmer than on Monday, and many places will reach 90F or greater. And with that comes some higher dew points over the coastal corridor.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Flat riding or quasi-zonal flow will prevail aloft through Thursday, before a deep upper low develops near the Great Lakes late in the week. We'll still be south of the associated trough, but this pattern will force a cold front to likely approach late in the week. For now we don't have anything more than 20/30 PoPs, especially since it's difficult to get cold fronts into our neighborhood this time of year. We feel more confidence on hotter conditions as 850 mb temperatures that reach 17-18C Wednesday, are as high as 19-20C by Friday. Max temperatures are look to be in the 90-95F range through the period, provided the cold front doesn't get this far southeast. Associated heat indices Thursday and Friday could be near 100F in many areas.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06z Monday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Conditions will generally be VFR through the period.

MARINE
Tonight: Surface high pressure over the mid Atlantic will slip into the Atlantic tonight with northeasterly/easterly flow currently across the coastal waters veering southeasterly tonight. A touch of gustiness (gusts up to 20 knots) out there this afternoon will diminish tonight with speeds largely 10 to 15 knots. Seas will run 2 to 4 feet, highest in the Georgia outer waters.

Sunday through Thursday night: No real marine concerns outside of any convection, with high pressure generally in control. Even with afternoon/evening sea breeze influences, and nocturnal low level jetting, winds will mainly be 15 kt or less, with seas no more than 3 or 4 feet.

Rip Currents: There were numerous reports of rip currents at Tybee Beach earlier today, mainly due to the strong long shore current reported by the lifeguards. Sunday could be similar, but given the lack of swells, and both the in-house Rip Current Calculator and Rip Current MOS showing low risk for all beaches, that's what we have at this time.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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