Sunrise 5:22 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 12:19 PM   Moonset 12:57 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 153 Pm Edt Thu Jun 13 2024
This afternoon - S winds 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Occasional gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 2 seconds. Showers and chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sat - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Sun - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 153 Pm Edt Thu Jun 13 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure remains in control today, followed by a cold front approaching Friday and moving through Friday night. High pressure returns for the weekend before sliding offshore early next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 131814 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 214 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure moves farther out into the Atlantic through tonight. A cold front approaches Friday and moves across Friday night. High pressure returns for the weekend before sliding offshore early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Forecast remains on track. Temperatures and dewpoints still have good agreement last few hours comparing forecast with observed values. Some cumulus development has occurred with scattered to broken cirrus moving across the region.

Still have some sea breeze enhancement expected for the afternoon into early this evening. Gusty southerly flow can be expected along the coast but will be partially limited as warmer air moves in aloft.

High pressure will further weaken tonight and move farther out east into the Atlantic. After the decrease of the cumulus and overall mostly clear conditions to start tonight, expecting an increase in clouds from west to east overnight.

With some low to mid level Q vector convergence noted more so by the GFS with this not indicated as much with the NAM, have a slight to low end chance of showers late overnight into early Friday morning for parts of the southern coastlines covering the area from coastal CT through coastal NE NJ, NYC and Long Island.
In the mid levels, the models do convey weak positive vorticity advection on the backside of the mid level ridge traversing the local region between 2AM and 8AM Friday.

With the southerly flow continuing along the coast and increasing clouds late, went with more mild low temperatures.
Lows used a combination of NBM and consensus of all guidance, with values mainly in the mid 60s to near 70.

SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Even warmer with a subtle climb in humidity as a S to SW flow increases overall as a cold front approaches from the west.
Expect lots of sunshine through the early afternoon, with clouds increasing from west to east with the approach of a cold front.
Temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s to 90 for the NE NJ metro, with mainly 80s elsewhere, and middle and upper 70s across far eastern coastal sections. Convection ahead of the cold front is expected to initiate towards 18 to 20z for the northwestern portions of the CWA, with the activity moving ESE through the late afternoon and evening. SPC has placed the area in a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms, with the slight risk roughly for the western half of the CWA The main threat with any storms at this time appears to be gusty to damaging wind gusts in any stronger storms. Storm mode appears to be multi-cell clusters with perhaps the storms becoming more of a broken organized line as it gets closer to the metro during the evening. MLCAPE values are expected to exceed 1000 J/kg for far western areas, with bulk shear values in the 35 kt vicinity as this has the chance to be the first widespread thunderstorm activity of the season for a good portion of the CWA A general weakening trend in any storms is expected as the storms encounter more of a marine environment as they move across the eastern third of the CWA

The showers and storms should slide to the east by midnight for far eastern sections. A Drier NW flow moves in quickly in the wake of the FROPA, with noticeably lower humidity into Sat AM with clearing skies.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Surface high pressure builds in from the NW behind the exiting cold front on Saturday, centering itself over the area on Sunday as an upper-level ridge begins to build into the area. This ridge remains over the Northeast on Monday before amplifying Tuesday into Wednesday, remaining highly amplified into Thursday.

HEAT! That pretty much sums up the concerns for the long-term forecast. Our first heat wave of the season could be a possibility with multiple days expected to reach the mid-90s with upper-90s possible. The hottest days are expected to be Tuesday through Thursday. Heat index values are projected to be between 95 and 100 at their peak due to higher dewpoints being advected in from onshore flow. This onshore flow, however, could lead to subtle relief for Long Island and parts of coastal Connecticut where winds blowing in from cooler ocean waters may allow their temperatures to be slightly cooler than the rest of the CWA Heat Advisories may need to be issued as the event nears, if the forecast does not change too much.

850mb warm air advection starts aloft on Monday, but doesn't really become anomalously strong until Tuesday. Its important to note that there is uncertainty with regards to the maximum temperatures. All global model guidance agrees on a highly-amplified ridge over the northeast with warm air advection aloft, but they still differ in magnitude. Expect the forecasted temperatures to change somewhat until the model guidance comes into better agreement. For now, went with a blend of NBM deterministic and NBM 50th percentile. Even the NBM 25th percentile was warmer than the deterministic NBM, so by blending the two together, it has increased forecasted temperatures next week.

A few weak shortwaves embedded within the longwave ridge on Sunday and Monday will help forestall strong heat until Tuesday. The shortwaves will increase cloud coverage somewhat and prevent the ridge from amplifying until Tuesday. This will leave temperatures near normal for the weekend and only slightly above average on Monday.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR through most of the TAF period.

A cold front approaches from the NW late Friday bringing unsettled weather late Friday into early Saturday morning. Best chance of TSRA 18-22z Friday KSWF and 20-00z Sat across city terminals. Heavy rain and gusty winds possible in any TSTM Friday.

S-SW Winds 10-15kt with gusts to 25kt at the coast continue into early evening. Tonight, gusts diminish but winds are expected to remain around 10 kt overnight into Friday morning.
Stronger winds possible in vicinity of stronger TSTMs Friday afternoon and evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments likely through 18z Friday.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18z Friday: MVFR or lower possible in showers/tstms late afternoon or evening.

Saturday through Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR expected. CHC of MVFR in afternoon SHRA/TSTM mainly NW of city terminals

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
More southerly flow this afternoon with gusts expected to 20-25 kt. The gusts will be occasional as warmer air moving in aloft will limit mixing. So, do not have SCA for any of the forecast waters as the 25 kt gusts are just expected to be occasional.
Seas on the ocean expected to remain below SCA thresholds and well below SCA thresholds for non-ocean waters. Wind subside tonight with wind gusts on Friday to near 20 kt. Winds subside again Friday night with wind direction eventually becoming more NW.

Sub small craft conditions then prevail through early next week.

HYDROLOGY
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to bring a round of brief, but locally heavy rain late Friday and Friday evening. Rainfall amounts are expected to average from around a half inch to one inch.
Instantaneous rainfall rates will be rather high, but the storms are expected to progress along. Therefore impacts will most likely be limited to minor urban and poor drainage flooding due to the quick movement of this system, with flash flooding appearing unlikely at this time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There remains a moderate rip current risk this afternoon for the ocean beaches, and a high risk for most ocean beaches Friday.
Eastern Suffolk beaches are expected to have a moderate rip current risk on Friday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Little Ferry
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Thu -- 12:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:34 AM EDT     5.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:52 AM EDT     1.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:17 PM EDT     5.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:21 PM EDT     1.86 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Little Ferry, New Jersey, Tide feet

George Washington Bridge (Hudson River)
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Thu -- 12:14 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:28 AM EDT     1.29 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:05 AM EDT     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:04 PM EDT     1.19 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:00 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:34 PM EDT     -1.53 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

George Washington Bridge (Hudson River), New York Current, knots

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