Sunrise 5:15 AM   Sunset 9:00 PM Moonrise 1:42 AM   Moonset 2:25 PM

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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 248 Am Pdt Sat Jun 1 2024
Today - S wind around 5 kt, rising to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. A chance of rain early this morning, then a slight chance of rain late this morning and early afternoon. A chance of rain late. Tonight - S wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.Sun - S wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Rain.Sun night - S wind 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Rain.Mon - S wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less becoming 3 to 4 ft. Rain.Mon night - S wind 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Showers in the evening, then rain after midnight. Tue - S wind 15 to 20 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft becoming 2 ft or less.Tue night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the evening. Wed - S wind around 5 kt, veering to N around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Wed night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.

PZZ100 248 Am Pdt Sat Jun 1 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - A frontal system moving across the coastal waters will dissipate as it moves onshore this morning. A stronger front will approach the waters Sunday night and move onshore early Monday morning. Another front is expected to arrive on Tuesday. High pressure will then build back into the coastal waters on Wednesday.

FXUS66 KSEW 011033 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 333 AM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak system moving through Western Washington today.
Rare late spring atmospheric river taking aim at the area beginning Sunday. Rain, heavy at times for this time of year, Sunday through Monday afternoon. Rain continuing into Tuesday but with the atmospheric river weakening rainfall amounts will be lighter. Upper level ridge building over the area Wednesday through Friday for a quick transition to drier and warmer weather.

Key Messages for Upcoming Active Weather Pattern

* Late season atmospheric river pattern will develop Sunday through Tuesday.

* Heavy rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches along the coast and 3-5 inches mountains during this timeframe.

* Moderate to heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches across the lowlands during this timeframe.

* Snow levels above 6500 feet will will promote additional runoff with several area rivers flowing out of the Cascades forecast to enter action or even minor flood stage. A Flood Watch remains in effect across portions of western Washington.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Happy Meteorological Summer.
Certainly not summer like weather for the next few days. Currently cloudy skies over Western Washington. Doppler radar has a large area of light precipitation covering most of the area. Surface observations reporting much of the precipitation indicated on the radar is not reaching the ground. Temperatures at 3 am/10z were in the 50s.

Weak system moving through the area this morning into the afternoon hours keeping a chance of rain in the forecast. Rainfall amounts will be light, less than a tenth of an inch. Cloudy skies will keep high temperatures only in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

A little break in the action tonight with the leading edge of the approaching atmospheric river still offshore by 12z Sunday. With a 130-140 knot jet core associated with the atmospheric river there is a chance the rainfall could arrive a little earlier than the models are indicating so have added chance pops to the interior for early Sunday morning. Lows under cloudy skies in the 50s.

Wet day in store on Sunday as the atmospheric river takes aim at the Pacific Northwest. Highest PWAT values moving into Oregon with 1.4 to 1.6 inch values along the Central Oregon coast but PWAT values in Western Washington are still in the 1.0 to 1.2 inch range. Air mass warming up with snow levels rising to 6500 to 8500 feet. 850 mb winds increasing during the day and by 00z Monday will be in the 25 to 40 knot range out of the southwest.
This will increase the rain rates over the Olympics and Cascades.
Highs will only be a few degrees warmer than the lows, a couple of degrees either side of 60.

Moderate to heavy rain continuing Sunday evening until the first shortwave embedded in the flow aloft moves through Western Washington. Rainfall rates will ease overnight in the lowlands but west southwesterly 850 mb winds in the 20 to 30 knot range will keep heavier rain continuing especially in the Cascades. Snow levels remaining high so only the tops of the volcanoes will see any snow. Lots of daily rainfall records for Sunday will be in jeopardy. See climate section for more details.

Another wave embedded in the flow aloft moving through Monday afternoon with rainfall rates increasing Monday morning before dropping off significantly as the system moves through Monday afternoon. Highs once again will be around 60.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Extended models in good agreement with one more disturbance moving through Tuesday. This feature is weaker than the first two with lower PWAT vales and weaker winds aloft. Heaviest rain along the coast and over the Olympics with lesser amounts over the Cascades and the interior.
Snow levels remaining elevated with most of the precipitation in the mountains falling as rain.

Models also in good agreement with an upper level ridge building quickly overt the area Wednesday and Thursday resulting in a quick drying and warming trend. By Thursday highs in the 70s will be common across the interior with highs near 70 along the coast.

Some differences in the models start to show up FRiday with the ECMWF continuing to keep a high amplitude ridge over the area while the GFS has the ridge further to the east with southerly flow aloft over the area. This could introduce some mid level moisture and combined with the slightly unstable air mass over the higher terrain could produce some convection especially over the Cascades late in the day. Ensemble solutions are not much help with both model ensembles supporting the operational runs. Most of the clusters supporting the drier solutions with the ridge further to the west than the GFS solution so will keep Friday dry for now with the warmer locations pushing 80 degrees. Felton

AVIATION...A weak upper ridge will continue to push eastward across Washington this morning as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Flow aloft will become west to southwesterly. At the surface, a frontal system will move onshore and dissipate, bringing light precipitation to the region. Most likely areas to receive precipitation are the coast and the interior terminals north of KPAE. VFR conditions continue to prevail this morning, but expect ceilings to lower somewhat later this morning ahead of the approaching weak frontal system. MVFR conditions will be possible at times in light rain. Expect rain to spread inland from the coast this morning.

KSEA...VFR conditions early this morning. Ceilings still look to gradually drop under increasing high and mid level clouds.
MVFR in light rain possible between 15Z-18Z this morning. Surface winds northerly with occasional shifts to the northeast or northwest 4 to 8 knots. Winds then shift to light southerly through the morning today. McMillian/14

MARINE
A frontal system moving across the coastal waters this morning will move onshore and dissipate. A stronger front will approach the area waters on Sunday, bringing the next round of gusty winds to the region. Latest probabilistic guidance has a 50-70 percent chance of gusts occasionally reaching gale across the coastal waters and eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca as the frontal system moves across the area. However, guidance does not suggest frequent gusts and maintains the strongest gusts south of the coastal waters for now, so have held off on any gale watch issuance for now. Another frontal system will then move across the area waters on Monday, quickly followed by another on Tuesday for an active period. High pressure then looks to build back into the coastal waters on Wednesday.

Seas currently continue to hover between 2 to 4 feet offshore this morning. Expect seas to build towards 4 to 6 feet over the weekend, before building towards 8 to 11 feet early next week. 14



HYDROLOGY
This could be a record breaking event for river levels around the area for this time of year. The Sunday through Tuesday forecasted rain totals are still 3 to 5 inches for the Olympics and the Cascades, with the possibility of 6 inch bullseyes along the southwest slopes of the Olympics. Snow levels will be in the 6000 to as high as 8500 foot range for most of the event. West southwesterly flow aloft favors the heaviest rainfall to be along the southwest slopes of the Olympics and the Central Washington Cascades. Right now the forecast only has only one river reaching flood stage, the Snoqualmie at Carnation with additional rivers flowing out of the Central Cascades and Southern Olympics reaching action stage. The flood stage for the Snoqualmie at Carnation is 54.0 feet. The forecast is for the river to crest right at flood stage. The Snoqualmie at Carnation has never been above 52.5 feet this time of the year. The Snoqualmie River at the Falls is currently forecast to crest under flood stage but also at the highest level it has ever been for this time of year.

The flood watch for Skagit, Snohomish, King, Pierce and Mason counties remains in effect. Felton

CLIMATE
Here are some daily rainfall records for around the area for Sunday June 2nd, Seattle 0.48 inches in 2001, Olympia 0.68 inches in 2010, Bellingham 0.48 inches in 1962, Quillayute 1.63 inches in 2010 and Hoquiam 1.35 inches in 1962.

Monthly rainfall normals for the entire month of June are, Seattle 1.45 inches, Olympia 1.46 inches, Bellingham 1.61 inches, Quillayute 3.30 inches and Hoquiam 2.01 inches. It is certainly possible that some locations could surpass their normal monthly June rainfall in the first 3 days of the month. Felton

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Wednesday morning for Bellevue and Vicinity-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area- Olympics-Seattle and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-West Slopes North Cascades and Passes-West Slopes North Central Cascades and Passes-West Slopes South Central Cascades and Passes- Western Skagit County.

PZ...None.

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Tahlequah
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Sat -- 12:59 AM PDT     12.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:41 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:17 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:53 AM PDT     2.56 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:41 PM PDT     8.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:25 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:07 PM PDT     3.67 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:59 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tahlequah, Neil Point, Washington, Tide feet

Skagit Bay
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Sat -- 01:37 AM PDT     -1.39 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:41 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:10 AM PDT     0.05 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:17 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:31 AM PDT     1.51 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:22 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:58 PM PDT     -1.21 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:26 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:53 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:39 PM PDT     1.64 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:59 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:20 PM PDT     -0.06 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Skagit Bay, 1 mile S of Goat Island, Washington Current, knots

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