Sunrise 6:24 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 1:41 PM   Moonset 1:05 AM

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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 328 Am Edt Sat Jun 15 2024
Today - Light and variable winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast to east in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 7 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight - Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 7 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Sunday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 1 foot at 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 5 seconds and east 1 foot at 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Monday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: east 5 feet at 7 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Tuesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: east 5 feet at 7 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Wednesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. A chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 150653 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 253 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE

DISCUSSION
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Current...KMLB 88D shows mostly dry conditions over land across ECFL and ISOLD shower activity over the local coastal waters. The pressure gradient is relatively weak as winds range from L/V to calm. Humid conditions with temperatures/dewpoints in the 70s. For clouds, just a few low clouds speckled in observations, with satellite imagery showing a BKN/OVC layer of high cloudiness near Orlando southward. North of Orlando there are fewer overall clouds and will monitor for some early morning shallow, patchy fog here, but confidence is low.

Today-Tonight...A weak pressure pattern continues across the area.
The ECSB will develop again today and move inland, quicker across the north as winds veer onshore behind it. Ample moisture will exist along with daytime heating and boundary interactions to spark SCT, mainly afternoon-evening showers and lightning storms.
Activity will diminish into mid-late evening. Steering flow aloft is light so expect slow-moving convection. Primary convective threats will be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds 30-40 mph locally, and heavy downpours which could cause minor flooding, especially for areas that may have recently received heavy rainfall and/or from repeated rounds. Max temps in the M-U80s with near 90F to L90s in play across and north of I-4.
Peak heat indices well into the 90s and L100s possible near/north of a central Osceola-Melbourne line. Overnight mins mainly in the 70s with conditions humid.

Sun-Sun Night...Onshore flow becomes deeper across the area as weak high pressure slides southward across the Eastern Seaboard and southeast U.S. Light onshore flow areawide. ISOLD-SCT convection along the coast during the morning/early afternoon, with SCT showers/lightning storms favoring interior reaches in the mid-late afternoon and early evening. Mainly U80s for highs, except L90s for N/W of I-4. Overnight lows remaining in the 70s.

Mon-Fri...Stout mid-level ridge across the mid Atlc/southeast U.S.
extending into the FL peninsula will strengthen thru Tue night along the Eastern Seaboard, but is undercut Wed-Fri by some westward moving mid-level impulses. Temperatures warm aloft, as well, -4.0C to -5.5C. Plentiful PWAT values near 2 inches on Mon, then some overall drier air moves in through mid-week before a return to more moist conditions Thu-Fri. The deep onshore flow continues thru the period and along with the warm temperatures aloft may at best provide for ISOLD lightning chances, especially over land. Slightly cooler temperatures aloft Wed-Fri, along with an influx of moisture may be enough to promote SCT wording for thunder during this timeframe. Showers will remain in the SCT category with perhaps NMRS showers Thu-Fri.

With the persistent onshore flow at least into Wed, we will likely see greatest precip chances along the coast overnight/morning-early afternoon hours, with higher afternoon- evening convective chances across the interior. By Wed night thru Fri, medium range models suggest higher PoPs areawide due to the previously mentioned energy/cooler temps aloft and increased moisture. The pressure gradient begins to tighten next week and we may see some breezy onshore conditions each day, perhaps remaining elevated along the coast during the evening/overnight periods. This will create additional convergence along the coast and the latter part of this period, we may have to watch for some pockets of heavy low-topped showery precip, especially along the coast, should this scenario play out. Have undercut the NBM's high-PoP bias in the extended for now.

Thanks in part to the onshore flow, temperatures will be seasonable through the period, with afternoon highs in the U80s to L90s (interior), and overnight lows remaining mild in the 70s.

MARINE
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Today-Tonight...Weak pressure gradient over the area with L/V morning winds, remaining mostly light (under 10 kts) and variable over the open Atlc and transitioning onshore near the coast with sea breeze formation. An offshore wind component develops again this evening and overnight, mainly AOB 10 kts. Seas up to 2 ft near shore and 2-3 ft offshore.

Sun-Wed...An onshore wind component will develop on Sun continuing into next week while getting deeper/stronger. Wind speeds increasing 8-13 kts on Sun, 11-16 kts Sun night, and we may be looking at 15-20 kts Mon-Wed as the pgrad tightens. Seas remain 2-3 ft into Sun evening, 3-4 ft Sun night, 4-5 ft Mon-early Tue, 4-6 ft Tue aftn-Wed night. ISOLD-SCT convection thru Sun with SCT showery precip into Wed, possibly ramping up to likely Wed night.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions through tonight, with some model guidance hinting at MVFR conditions along the coast later this morning. However, confidence was not high this will occur, so have left it out for the time being. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the period outside of convection. Light and variable winds tonight will increase to 5-10 KT by late morning and become E/SE from ISM- MCO- SFB- LEE- DAB- TIX, and W/SW from MLB- VRB-FPR-SUA.
SCT/NUM SHRA and ISM/SCT TSRA in the afternoon. Have included VCTS for all sites starting at 20Z for all inland terminals and DAB, starting at 18/19Z for coastal terminals from TIX southward.
Have not included any TEMPOs as of yet for Saturday's convection.
Activity will dissipate or move away from the local area shortly after sunset. Winds will become light and variable once again overnight Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 90 74 89 76 / 30 10 20 20 MCO 89 74 89 75 / 60 20 40 10 MLB 88 74 88 77 / 60 20 40 30 VRB 88 73 88 76 / 60 20 30 20 LEE 92 76 92 75 / 50 10 40 10 SFB 91 74 91 75 / 50 10 40 10 ORL 90 75 91 75 / 60 20 40 10 FPR 87 72 88 75 / 60 20 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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Titusville
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Sat -- 02:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:31 AM EDT     3.60 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Titusville, Indian River, Florida, Tide feet

Canaveral Harbor Entrance
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Sat -- 02:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:01 AM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:29 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:46 PM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:53 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Canaveral Harbor Entrance, Florida (2), Tide feet

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