Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ballou, OK
June 2, 2024 4:45 PM CDT (21:45 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:02 AM Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 2:18 AM Moonset 3:35 PM |
FXUS64 KTSA 021856 AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 156 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Tough short term forecast given widespread showers and thunderstorms ongoing near I-35 early this afternoon that have not been well handled by models. The current expectation given mesoanalysis is for these thunderstorms to persist into mid to late afternoon across eastern Oklahoma, albeit likely in a declining phase given lower instability here and widespread high clouds preventing a substantial increase in such. The exception may be along the Red River where there is locally higher instability, and a strong to severe thunderstorm threat may persist into southeast Oklahoma. There should be a relative lull in activity for a portion of the evening perhaps into early Monday morning, with attention then returning to the west. Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening near the dryline in the Texas Panhandle and push eastward across southern Oklahoma this evening and overnight. A strong to severe threat may be maintained, depending on how the afternoon/evening activity modifies things. A second area of storms may also develop along the Kansas border, although coverage here should be lower than down south. POPs have been heavily based on the short-term blended consensus and current observational trends, with the NBM initialization displacing the highest POPs well north of the above thinking.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The ongoing active weather pattern looks to persist into early to mid week, followed by a couple of quieter days late week and an increasingly active next weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across parts of southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas at daybreak Monday, which should continue to move eastward through the remainder of the morning. Any redevelopment in the afternoon looks to mainly focus across southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, if the mid level disturbance has not shifted northeast of the area by then. In general, decreasing shower and thunderstorm chances can be expected Monday afternoon and evening as the disturbance pulls away. There may be an uptick in coverage early Tuesday morning as another disturbance moves through quickly on the heels of the previous one.
The most notable shower and thunderstorm chances remain likely to arrive Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning in response to a front moving into the region from the north. High instability to the south of the front and sufficient deep layer shear will support a threat for severe weather, especially during the evening hours Tuesday.
The quieter period will arrive late week behind the front, persisting through Friday. Northwest flow aloft next weekend will support overnight thunderstorm complexes that develop in the High Plains moving into the area, beginning Friday night and early Saturday morning.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Widespread convection ongoing across central OK is expected to continue eastward through the afternoon and likely impact E OK terminals though the overall coverage and duration of any flight level restriction criteria is more uncertain. Expectation is that convection will decrease in coverage and/or intensity further east and will not include mention across NW AR terminals at this time.
Storms will again develop west of the local region overnight and spread eastward with thunderstorm chances increasing for forecast points late tonight and continuing through Monday morning.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 70 83 71 87 / 30 40 30 10 FSM 72 86 72 87 / 30 50 50 20 MLC 69 83 71 86 / 40 40 30 10 BVO 69 82 68 85 / 30 30 30 10 FYV 69 83 68 84 / 20 60 40 20 BYV 68 83 67 84 / 20 60 40 30 MKO 70 81 71 85 / 30 40 40 10 MIO 69 81 68 84 / 20 50 40 20 F10 67 82 70 86 / 40 40 20 10 HHW 69 83 71 86 / 50 50 20 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 156 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Tough short term forecast given widespread showers and thunderstorms ongoing near I-35 early this afternoon that have not been well handled by models. The current expectation given mesoanalysis is for these thunderstorms to persist into mid to late afternoon across eastern Oklahoma, albeit likely in a declining phase given lower instability here and widespread high clouds preventing a substantial increase in such. The exception may be along the Red River where there is locally higher instability, and a strong to severe thunderstorm threat may persist into southeast Oklahoma. There should be a relative lull in activity for a portion of the evening perhaps into early Monday morning, with attention then returning to the west. Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening near the dryline in the Texas Panhandle and push eastward across southern Oklahoma this evening and overnight. A strong to severe threat may be maintained, depending on how the afternoon/evening activity modifies things. A second area of storms may also develop along the Kansas border, although coverage here should be lower than down south. POPs have been heavily based on the short-term blended consensus and current observational trends, with the NBM initialization displacing the highest POPs well north of the above thinking.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The ongoing active weather pattern looks to persist into early to mid week, followed by a couple of quieter days late week and an increasingly active next weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across parts of southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas at daybreak Monday, which should continue to move eastward through the remainder of the morning. Any redevelopment in the afternoon looks to mainly focus across southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, if the mid level disturbance has not shifted northeast of the area by then. In general, decreasing shower and thunderstorm chances can be expected Monday afternoon and evening as the disturbance pulls away. There may be an uptick in coverage early Tuesday morning as another disturbance moves through quickly on the heels of the previous one.
The most notable shower and thunderstorm chances remain likely to arrive Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning in response to a front moving into the region from the north. High instability to the south of the front and sufficient deep layer shear will support a threat for severe weather, especially during the evening hours Tuesday.
The quieter period will arrive late week behind the front, persisting through Friday. Northwest flow aloft next weekend will support overnight thunderstorm complexes that develop in the High Plains moving into the area, beginning Friday night and early Saturday morning.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Widespread convection ongoing across central OK is expected to continue eastward through the afternoon and likely impact E OK terminals though the overall coverage and duration of any flight level restriction criteria is more uncertain. Expectation is that convection will decrease in coverage and/or intensity further east and will not include mention across NW AR terminals at this time.
Storms will again develop west of the local region overnight and spread eastward with thunderstorm chances increasing for forecast points late tonight and continuing through Monday morning.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 70 83 71 87 / 30 40 30 10 FSM 72 86 72 87 / 30 50 50 20 MLC 69 83 71 86 / 40 40 30 10 BVO 69 82 68 85 / 30 30 30 10 FYV 69 83 68 84 / 20 60 40 20 BYV 68 83 67 84 / 20 60 40 30 MKO 70 81 71 85 / 30 40 40 10 MIO 69 81 68 84 / 20 50 40 20 F10 67 82 70 86 / 40 40 20 10 HHW 69 83 71 86 / 50 50 20 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KTQH TAHLEQUAH MUNI,OK | 18 sm | 50 min | S 05 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 84°F | 70°F | 62% | 29.92 | |
| KGCM CLAREMORE RGNL,OK | 19 sm | 50 min | S 10G19 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 82°F | 77°F | 84% | 29.87 |
Tulsa, OK,
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