Sunrise 5:27 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 2:27 AM   Moonset 3:00 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 316 Pm Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Mon - SW winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 2 seconds. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Wed - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Thu - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Thu night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely.

ANZ300 316 Pm Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure settles over the area tonight and gradually drifts to the southeast and offshore on Sunday. A weakening disturbance moves through late Sunday night and for the first half of Monday. High pressure remains over the waters Tuesday and Wednesday before sliding offshore Wednesday evening. A series of frontal systems then approach by the end of the week.

FXUS61 KPHI 011953 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 353 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains in control through tomorrow morning. A weak system approaches for Sunday into Monday. High pressure moves in on Monday Night remaining in control through early Wednesday. An upper level low then will move into the Great Lakes, keeping things unsettled into next weekend.



NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Another pleasant day is occurring across the region thanks to an upper-level ridge and surface high pressure that are pushing through the region. Skies are mostly clear, save for a bit of cirrus, with temperatures rising into the 80s across most of the region. A sea breeze has developed and is beginning to slowly work its way inland which will result in a wind shift from SW to SE. Seeing how far inland the seabreeze makes it will be the main thing to watch for this evening with the otherwise fair weather.

For tonight, light winds and low dew points, along with initially clear skies will lead to ideal radiational cooling conditions.
Temperatures will fall into the 50s with some low 60s in the heart of the urban corridor. Cirrus clouds will increase as the next low pressure system approaches.

Clouds will continue to increase daytime Sunday. Southwest winds will be a bit stronger on Sunday, generally around 10 mph, with a few gusts up to 15 mph. High temperatures are expected to again be in the low-mid 80s across most of the region (cooler in the Poconos and at the shore). The vast majority of the day is expected to be dry regionwide, thanks to in part drier air lingering below 500 mb.
By the evening, a few light showers may begin to move in, so do have some slight chance PoPs (15-20%) for the most western portion of the region.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A weakening shortwave approaches on Sunday Night, rotating around the backside of an upper level low over the north Atlantic. This will bring some scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder but nothing to write home about. Rain chances are around 30-50% region-wide for the overnight hours. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 60s.

12z guidance has generally slowed with this shortwave as the upper level low gradually pulls away. This may result in some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. The best chance to see rain/thunderstorms is within lower Delmarva (30- 40%), with 15-20% through the rest of the area. Otherwise, the day will be mainly dry for most, with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s.

We dry out Monday Night through Tuesday as high pressure nudges in from the north. With the high positioned just offshore, an onshore flow will develop which will result in temperatures in the low to mid 70s near the coast, with upper 70s/low 80s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Long term period will be marked by unsettled weather due to a closed low moving into the Great Lakes region and meandering through the weekend. This will result in numerous shortwaves rounding the base of the closed low and moving towards our region. The strongest shortwave looks to approach on Thursday, with an associated cold front moving through sometime late in the week. Out ahead of the front, widespread showers and thunderstorms look to develop. Too early to tell if any weather will be severe or if there are any flooding concerns, but the Thursday/Thursday night time frame has the highest rain chances (around 60-70%). Outside of that window, generally expecting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon/early evening timeframe of each day. Even with the front coming through late in the week, unsettled weather likely continues through the weekend as the upper level low hangs around near the Great Lakes/Southern Ontario region.

Temperatures will hover near or perhaps a touch below normal for early June for the long term period with highs near 80 and overnight lows near 60.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...VFR with a bit of upper-level cirrus. Mainly southwest winds around 5-10 knots. Sea breeze expected to turn winds south/southeasterly at KACY/KMIV with a possible push inland to other sites after 20Z/21Z. High confidence in VFR conditions.

Tonight...VFR with high-level cirrus clouds increasing. Light and variables winds around 5 knots or less. High confidence.

Sunday...VFR with increasing mid-level clouds. Southwest winds around 10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...Restrictions possible (40-60%) with scattered showers and low clouds moving through. Patchy fog may develop as well.

Monday...Lingering restrictions in the morning likely (50-60%)
though lifting to VFR in the afternoon.

Monday Night through Tuesday Night...VFR. No significant weather.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night...Primarily VFR though showers/isolated thunderstorms arriving late in the day could bring some restrictions.

Thursday...Restrictions likely (70-80%) with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms moving through.

MARINE
No marine headlines expected with fair weather. Winds southwest around 10-15 knots with a few gusts up to 20 knots possible, particularly early tonight. Seas 2-3 feet.

Outlook...

Sunday Night through Thursday...No marine headlines expected on the waters. Fair weather outside of Thursday, where showers and thunderstorms are expected.

Rip Currents...

Today will see northwest winds around 10 mph which will become south or southeast later in the day. Breaking waves will be 1 to 2 feet. This will once again result in a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents along the New Jersey and Delaware beaches. Similar conditions expected Sunday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers. Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the water.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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